Inflation, labour, Swingers, Boxpark, holiday chaos, Covid support etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Well, we’ve all made it to the end of a short week that felt longer than it was and, with the sun set to shine, it should be a great long weekend. That said, Easter, and indeed the month of April could be a very telling one for our industry.

Because the Easter days fall in line with the 2019 comps, virtually all of the support mechanisms put in place over Covid have been pulled away, VAT has returned to its previous levels, landlords have put their teeth back in and the consumer will be aware that their costs have risen faster than their incomes.

That could (and almost certainly will) put downward pressure on non-essential spending and, with that in mind, it was interesting to note Time Out’s piece on the ‘£7 London pint’ yesterday.

Caution, tight Yorkshireman writing but, as £7 is quite a lot to pay for a pint, that may have raised a few eyebrows and, with Morrison’s selling 3 cases of beer for £20 (including, say, BrewDog Lost Lager at an equivalent 86p a pint), it’s not as though there aren’t alternatives to The Pub.

Indeed, the decision over a sunny weekend such as this one will be whether to spark up the barbie or to go to the pub and pay 8x as much for your beer.

Let’s see what happens. Feedback very welcome. These are extreme instances, of course, but, with the consumer beginning to feel the squeeze, it might just be a little short-sighted to go for price at all costs above volume.

Have a great weekend and on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Inflation.

See yesterday’s email and also Finance & Markets below. UKH CEO Kate Nicholls has tweeted that ‘cost price inflation in hospitality [is] currently running at 17-18%.’ It does rather feel that way.

Tesco yesterday said it was trying to do its bit. It reported ‘with household budgets under pressure, we are laser-focused on keeping the cost of the weekly shop in check – working in close partnership with our suppliers, as well as doing everything we can to reduce our own costs.’ It says ‘we…continue to champion great value for customers at a time when they are facing increasing pressure on household budgets.’

Commenting on prices in London, Time Out says ‘the moment has come. It’s a moment we thought we’d only experience in our worst nightmares. Londoners: the dreaded £7 pint has arrived.’ It adds ‘we’re not just talking about pints in Zone 1. The seven-pounder is starting to pop up everywhere, in neighbourhood locals, old-man watering holes, music venues and rooftop bars.’

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Plenty on price rises in the press. Tesco (see below) said to be kicking off a price war across supermarkets & the Telegraph goes with the rising cost of seafood. It says that rising fuel prices will lead to cost increases for the UK’s fishing fleet. Cutting off the supply of white fish from Russian trawlers will not help either.

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Labour:

Talk of shorter hours, free this, free that etc to attract staff. Restaurant workers are set to be compensated more as a shortage of workers threatens the sector. Chefs or waiters who had previously been looking for £30,000 a year are now said to be looking for £40,000 or even £48,000.

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Covid comments:

Hugh Osmond warns that any more complete closures of the hospitality sector would make the industry un-investable. The founder of Pizza Express and Punch Taverns criticised the government for failing to sufficiently address the Covid measures imposed on the hospitality industry, such as the 10pm curfew and socially distanced covers.

The Night Time Industries Association CEO Michael Kill commented on the PM and Chancellor being fined for attending a party, saying ‘It’s sickening to think that the very people who placed the country into lockdown and subsequently placed restrictions on the hospitality sector and night time economy continued to take part in a parties behind closed doors.’

COMPANY NEWS:

The Caterer reports that Swingers has undergone an 8,000 square foot extension, set to open on 20 May. The £2.5m West End fit out will include a new course, a bar, a street food showcase from Patty & Bun plus a 2,500 sq ft all-weather roof terrace. 

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Loungers’ Alex Reilley tweeted yesterday ‘today sees the opening of our 164th Lounge (& 195th site overall) in Northallerton. Ontano Lounge has opened this morning in a former HSBC. It’s a very nice-looking site.’

Pizza Hut UK boss Neil Manhas has warned that price rises are inevitable as a result of what he says is the ‘low double digit cost inflation’ now facing the restaurant industry. He says such price rises go ‘across dairy, across wheat, across meats, oils, vegetables, there’s very little at the moment that is untouched through this.’

Etsy sellers are protesting a rise in fees made by the online marketplace by shutting their shops on the platform. From Monday, Etsy is increasing the fees it charges sellers from 5% to 6.5% – a 30% increase. Etsy hosts more than 5.3m businesses, more than 20,000 Etsy sellers have joined the strike.

Boxpark is to open in The City. It has agreed a 15-year lease with Transport for London to use the Metropolitan Arcade building, next to Liverpool Street station. There should be around 16 kitchen units. The Standard says ‘dubbed the “BoxHall City”, the site will replace the existing Metropolitan Arcade at Liverpool Street Station with a collection of food and drink outlets and event venues.’ The site will open in summer 2023.

Food retailers. The Tesco full year results were blamed for a sell-off in food retailing stocks yesterday. The UK market leader said that it was determined to keep price rises to a minimum in order to help consumers. It has widened its Aldi-price match scheme and fears of a price war sent shares lower across the sector.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Which? has called for airlines to be fined as a result of the delays and cancellations that travellers are currently facing.

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TUI will attempt to reassure passengers that they will not be left stranded in queues as their aircraft takes off without them by offering ‘day-before’ bag drop services at Gatwick and Manchester airport from Monday.

Sky reports that Fortress Investment Group, which owns Punch Taverns, and TDR Capital, one of the principal shareholders in Asda, are among the parties which submitted indicative offers for Butlin’s Leisure in the last few days. It adds ‘Butlin’s is being sold by Bourne Leisure, which also trades under the Haven and Warner Leisure Hotels brands.’

BA is offering cabin crew from rival airlines who already have security clearance a £1,000 ‘welcome bonus’ if they join BA. Holidaymakers are facing long queues at airports this Easter as the aviation sector grapples with a shortage of staff both on the ground and in the air.

EasyJet CEO Johan Lundgren insists recent flight disruption has been due to crew sickness form Covid rather than from difficulty recruiting staff. Lundgren said ‘Currently, we have 10% absent, but at some bases it’s up to 20%. It’s not about us being short of crew.’

Another P&O Ferries vessel has been detained by regulators at Dover, potentially adding to existing logjams at the crossing. The detention of the ship Spirit of Britain comes as the Maritime and Coastguard Agency carries out inspections of P&O Ferries vessels to ensure they are fit to sail.

OTHER LEISURE:

Time Out will go online only from the end of June, becoming the latest in a long line of media outlets to abandon their physical presence as the way people consume media changes. 

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The British Chambers of Commerce comments on yesterday’s news that the CPI for the year to March rose by 7.0%, saying ‘the latest data confirms that the UK is in the midst of an unprecedented inflationary surge.’

The BCC adds ‘soaring inflation has raised the prospect of a notable slump in economic output in the near term by weakening consumer spending and damaging firms’ finances and their ability to invest and grow’ and says ‘the Government must provide urgent financial support, through the expansion of the energy bills rebate scheme, to include small firms and energy intensive businesses, and an SME energy price cap to protect smaller firms from some of the price increases.’

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The latest inflation data makes an interest rate rise when the Bank of England next meets (on 5 May) arguably more likely than not.

The Kent Resilience Forum has said that Operation Brock (queuing, now up to around 20 miles, on the M20), will remain in place until after Easter. This will lead to wastage of perishable products and increase costs (or reduce profit margins) as lorry drivers and their vehicles sit idle.

The Maritime and Coastguard Agency has said it has detained the P&O vessel, the Spirit of Britain, one of the ferries which normally runs on the Dover-Calais route. This is likely to add to trade delays.

A survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors shows that a positive 8pps of its members are seeing a rise in new listings. This suggests that the supply of houses into the second hand market is holding up. A net 9pps said they had seen an increase in enquiries from buyers.

Sterling up at $1.3134 and €1.2034. Oil price higher at $108.57. UK 10yr gilt yield up 1bp at 1.81%. World markets heading up a little yesterday and London set to open up around 10pts as at 7.00am.

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