Insolvency stats, trading, footfall, executive pay, holiday spend etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

So, we now have a five-business-day week to get through after two short ones.

And then another short one. Indeed, of the eight weeks starting with the Good Friday week, only four are full length and, at the beginning of June, we get one of three days.

That’s good for some and less good for others. Employers will have to stump up and it was mentioned in connection with the GDP forecast downgrade recently that the UK had fewer working days this year than last.

Anyway, enough of that. We’ve got quite a few results coming up this week. We’ll hear from Loungers, City Pub Group & Whitbread amongst others and the US Q1 season has some distance to run.

Hull City won 3-0 at the weekend and, though safe, we’ve left it a bit late to make our run for promotion. On to the news:

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INSOLVENCY STATS…

The government has released insolvency stats for March. These have been running low, largely due to the support provided over the Covid period. Most support measures have now been withdrawn – although some of this happened in April – meaning that observers believe the numbers could be set to rise:

Company Insolvencies (UK)

• There were 2,114 registered company insolvencies across England and Wales in March. This can be broken down as to 1,844 creditors’ voluntary liquidations, 132 compulsory liquidations, 129 administrations and 10 CVAs.

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Labour:

The Sunday Times reports that ‘restaurants and hotels in tourist resorts are paying thousands of pounds in golden handshakes to attract chefs from India and South Africa amid extreme staff shortages.’ It says some are offering £85,000 salaries, £5,000 sign-on bonuses, family holidays’ and more to attract workers from outside Europe. The ONS has said that up to around 8% of roles in hospitality may be unfilled.

Trading:

The latest Market Recovery Monitor from CGA and Alix Partners (see also Friday’s email) comments on the churn of units saying that this is at its highest rate for months. See also our comments on UK insolvency stats. Churn can help successful operators but in may mean the end of the road for their less successful peers.

The Guardian comments on the casual dining market. it says things have changed since both Nando’s and Wagamama opened in the UK 30yrs ago in 1992. It also suggests that ‘busy restaurants belie a tale of tightening belts in cost-of-living crisis.’

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CGA’s Drinks Recovery Tracker reports that drinks’ sales in the week to 16 April, fell ‘just short of pre-COVID-19 levels for fourth week in a row.’ This is, once again, a monetary rather than a volume measure. Sales were 2% lower. Inflation, it’s worth remembering, is around 7% and heading higher.

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Footfall:

Springboard comments on footfall over Easter, saying that ‘two factors heavily influenced footfall activity in UK retail destinations over Easter this year. The first factor was the warm and sunny weather which drew people to outdoor destinations rather than internal shopping environments. The second factor was that this was the first Easter bank holiday weekend since 2019 with no Covid restrictions.’

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Data from the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA) shows that seasonal fruit and veg prices have increased by 37% versus the same period in 2020. Out of the five most costly fruit and veg items, strawberries saw the biggest percentage rise of 80%, from £4.69 per kg in 2020 to £8.42 in 2022.

Supply chain:

Regarding supply chain issues; Boris Johnson has hinted that physical Brexit border checks on food imports from the EU due to be introduced in July will be delayed for the fourth time. Although Brexit has led to greater friction in trade, Johnson said ‘I’m generally in favour of minimal friction at all junctures between the UK and the EU.’

Property tenure. Landsec has launched a new product offering for hospitality and retail brands made up of four packages; Platform, Platform+, Home and Spotlight. With the introduction of Platform and Platform+, Landsec now hopes to forge partnerships with more independent retailers.

Delivery. In the US, New York has passed into law six bills extending the rights of delivery workers. The bills include a requirement that restaurants allow access to toilets.

Several supermarket chains across the UK are rationing purchases of cooking oils. Ukraine is a major sunflower oil exporter.

The BBC reports that Morrisons is to ‘cut the prices of hundreds of products to help customers with the rising cost of living.’

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Brakspear has said that this is a ‘worrying time’ for the hospitality industry.

COMPANY NEWS:

Lavazza reports an 11% rise in annual revenues to €2.3bn, with net profits rising 44% to €104m. Lavazza said its main growth drivers were its out-of-home business, which recovered to 80% of its 2019 value in 2021, and a ‘steadily rising’ home channel. However, market turbulence caused by inflationary pressures and the war in Ukraine pose significant challenges for the year ahead, the company has warned.

Nestlé reports that its coffee business has experienced a slow-down in the Q1 2022 amid rising raw materials costs and disruption from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Daily Mail takes Restaurant Group boss Andy Hornby to task over his salary and bonus package in light of the fact that the company ‘took £43m in furlough cash’ (in addition to the £123m it received in 2020.

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Anheuser Busch InBev is to take a $1.1 billion financial hit after finally bowing to pressure to withdraw from the Russian market after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, reports The Times.

The Daily Mail tips Tortilla Mexican Grill shares as a buy.

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McColl’s Retail Group has updated on trading saying that it has ‘experienced mixed trading since the last update on 28 February 2022.’ It says ‘while a recovery in trading performance had continued during the first half of March, the business has since experienced softer trading through the Easter period, impacted by reduced consumer spending and continued supply chain disruption across the industry.’

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Nationwide reports that household spending on holidays and travel increased last month despite household bill concerns. Nationwide’s Spending Report found that consumer spending grew by 16%, with the amount spent on non-essentials reaching its highest level of the year so far, at nearly £2.8bn. Spending on holidays in March reached £286m – 19% higher than the amount spent in February.

Data revealed at the World Travel & Tourism Council’s global summit in Manila showed a booking bounceback in international flights is being forecast. Countries leading the ranking of top 20 best performing destinations for the summer are Costa Rica, Aruba, Dominican Republic and Jamaica.

Data from the Business Travel Association shows that corporate travel in the first week of April slowed as business hours declined for the Easter break, with international and domestic business travel reducing to 46.10% of 2019 levels.

Sky News reports that Brookfield Property Partners is close to appointing Barclays to advise on the future of Center Parcs UK – an investment it has held since 2015. Center Parcs UK recently recorded the most profitable half-year in its history in spite of pandemic-related operating constraints.

Venice is set to introduce an entry fee of up to €10 a day from June in a bid to tackle overtourism. Tourists will enter through an electronic turnstile, and pay a charge of between €3 and €10, which will vary depending on how busy the city is that day. If the scheme is successful, it will be made permanent from 2023.

With Bourne Leisure looking as though it may change hands, The Times runs a piece saying that staycations have recently boomed. It reports ‘Britons are continuing to choose staycations for this summer, with bookings up by 20 per cent on pre-pandemic levels, according to the owner of Butlin’s.’

OTHER LEISURE:

PureGym is to use a recent £300 million investment by KKR to double in size to more than 1,000 clubs over the medium term, reports The Times.

The board of Twitter has reportedly met Elon Musk over the weekend to discuss his $43bn takeover offer for the company.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Flash PMIs produced by Markit for April suggest that the UK composite PMI was 57.6, down from 60.9 in March to hit a three-month low. The manufacturing index rose to 53.8 (from 51.8) whilst the services PMI was 58.3, down sharply from March’s 62.6 but still comfortably in growth.

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The British Chambers of Commerce Director General Shevaun Haviland is urging the UK government to ensure that the UK and US Governments are ‘laser focused on supporting business.’

Rightmove has reported that the average asking price of a house in Britain has hit a new record in the last three months. It says ‘with three new monthly price records in a row, 2022 has started with price rise momentum even greater than during the stamp duty holiday-fuelled market of last year.’

Sterling down sharply against other major currencies at $1.2798 and €1.1877. Oil price lower at $103.93. UK 10yr gilt yield down 2bps at 1.96%. World markets down on Friday & Far East down in Monday trading. London set to open down around 126pts as at 7am.

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