Mobility data, consumer squeeze, WFH, menus, recovery & margin etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Welcome to another five-day week, one in which I’m beginning to worry for my sanity.

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Anyway, it’s Monday and that’s going to need some work. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Consumer squeeze:

Once again, this is all over the papers. And with good reason. In brief, the former BoE governor Mervyn King has called for Britons to brace themselves ahead of a ‘very unpleasant period.’

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Consumer group Which reports that hundreds of staple grocery items had already risen in price by more than a fifth over the two years prior to the recent surge in food inflation caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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The Daily Mail reports that ‘Britain faces summer of shortages on supermarket shelves after just one in four seasonal crop pickers turn up to work in some areas.’

The BBC quotes E-on UK boss Michael Lewis as saying that up to 40% of his company’s customers will be in fuel poverty by October.

Menus:

Lumina Intelligence’s Menu Tracker reports that prices on menus have grown by 3.1% but the number of menu items has increased as operators try to entice customers while balancing rising inflation rates.

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Working from home:

The Times reports that Toby Courtauld, CEO of GPE, says that those who predicted the ‘death of the office’ have been proved ‘plain wrong’.

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Costs & margin:

The MCA reports that data is the key to managing food and drink inflation, according to David Read, chairman at Prestige Purchasing.

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Sector recovery & performance:

Lloyds Bank UK Sector Tracker shows that tourism and recreation businesses continued to recover in April, but inflation and rising costs are already starting to have an effect.

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CGA has updated on drink consumption for the week to 14 May saying that a ‘sunny Saturday puts drinks sales in growth for fourth week in a row.’

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Low and no-alcohol options:

KAM reports that 22% of customers who come to a venue not wanting alcohol will typically default to ‘tap water’, meaning that having a robust low and no alcohol offering can unlock sales growth.

Other news:

UKH has maintained that hospitality can be a great levellers and it says that, if given sufficient support, the sector can help will the government’s levelling up agenda.

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The Daily Mirror has suggested that 90 million extra pints of beer will be sold over the Jubilee weekend. That may depend very much on the weather. The Mirror goes on to report that strikes are threatened at one of AB InBev’s main breweries in the UK.

COMPANY NEWS:

Jamie Oliver has accused the Prime Minister of using the cost of living crisis as an ‘excuse’ for not tackling obesity after the government’s U-turn on halting ‘buy one get one free’ offers on junk food.

Purity Brewing in Alcester and Grainstore Brewery in Oakham have taken the overall Gold awards in SIBA’s Midlands Independent Beer Awards in Cask and Keg beer.

Tata Consumer Products reports annual revenues growth of 7.1% to $1.3bn, driven by the performance of its licenced Starbucks business in India which saw 76% annual revenue growth. Tata Starbucks, operates around 270 stores across India.

Pret is reported set to open in India via a venture with Reliance Industries’ retail subsidiary, Reliance Retail. The chain will operate in a market currently dominated by Cafe Coffee Day and Starbucks, which have more than 500 and 250 stores respectively.

Tortilla is to open its 50th site in the UK, in Portsmouth.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

P&O reports that its ships carried just 19% of their capacity last week.

Spanish authorities have confirmed that the country is to ease Covid entry rules ahead of the summer peak season. The country will now allow unvaccinated adults to enter if they show a negative test.

Moody’s has reported that Expedia Group’s intention to redeem $1 billion in notes is credit positive.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Huw Pill, chief economist at the Bank of England, has said that higher interest rates have ‘further to run’. He says the Bank’s MPC is forecasting double digit inflation in Q4.

Former Bank of England governor Mervyn King says central banks have fuelled inflation.

The US has said a trade deal with the UK is at risk if the UK government breaches the Northern Ireland Protocol.

The Nationwide has said that house prices may fall due to the headwinds that the market is currently facing.

The ONS has reported that higher sales of alcohol and tobacco were largely behind the rise in overall UK retail sales in April.

The High Pay Centre has reported that the gap in pay between company executives and other workers is set to widen this year. It fell during Covid.

Sterling up at $1.2544 and €1.1842. Oil price higher at $113.42. UK10yr gilt yield up 2bps at 1,88%. World markets better on Friday & London set to open some 49pts higher as at 6.30am.

FORTHCOMING NEWS:

A quieter week, this week. We have On the Beach H1 numbers tomorrow along with the same from West End landlord, Shaftesbury. Whitbread is hosting a teach-in on Tuesday and we have FY numbers from pork giant Cranswick.

On Wednesday, Hollywood Bowl reports H1 numbers and on Thursday, we hear from Ted Baker and Wickes hosts its AGM. AG Barr’s AGM is Friday. See also Trading Statements on the right.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

• Nick is taking a well-earned break, back later in the week.