Mobility data, inflation, labour cost, cost of living, the economy, IPOs etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

It was suggested to me over the weekend that, when you drive diagonally the breadth of the country from North Yorkshire to deepest, darkest West Wales in order to pick up a puppy, you are going to a huge and expensive effort just to make your life worse.

I’m hoping that isn’t true and, as we’ve had dogs before, we have some grounds for optimism but, given that dawn is some time before 4am these days and the little beast takes that as a signal to switch from chewing furniture to yipping and yowling at full volume, I’m beginning to wonder if the above-mentioned pessimistic wag didn’t have a point. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Inflation & labour costs:

Stagflation appears to be a non-negligible risk as employers struggle to attract staff despite slack demand for end-products in some area. There are many examples. Morrisons, for example, is reported this weekend to be raising pay for its store workers as the battle between UK supermarkets for staff hots up. It will pay staff a minimum of £10.20 an hour, saying that this is the highest of any of the UK supermarkets. Tesco raised wages to £10.10 earlier in the year.

CGA and Prestige Purchasing report that foodservice prices  in April were 10% higher than in April 2021, thanks to high energy costs and unstable global supply. The report highlights areas of particular volatility, including grains, with the war in Ukraine damaging production and preventing transportation. Poultry has been reduced, with Avian flu active and feed and fuel costs rising sharply.

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Cost of living crisis:

Whilst a clear picture will not appear until after the current squeeze has developed further, it appears, per the ONS, that 52% of UK households have reduced the amount of gas and electricity they use in order to save costs.

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A survey from HGEM shows that 87% of consumers are already affected by the cost-of-living crisis, with the youngest being most affected. The ranking from lowest priority to top priority for spending is as follows: 1) delivery & takeaway, 2) holidays abroad, 3) eating / drinking out, 4) retail (non-essentials) 5) UK holidays.

Lumina Intelligence Eating and Drinking Out Panel has found that the proportion of consumers eating and drinking out has decreased by -2ppts to 54% in the four weeks to 15 May 2022. Average spend has remained flat, highlighting that consumers are becoming more price-conscious and opting for less expensive options.

Food strategy.

The government’s food strategy looks to have been watered down in face of the cost-of-living crisis. Restaurateur Henry Dimbleby had written two reports suggesting far reaching policy changes to address problems with obesity and the protection of the environment. The government’s response appears to swerve most of the issues according to a leaked version referred to in the weekend press.

Economy:

The CBI has warned on economic growth and called for the government to take “vital actions” to avoid a recession. It has cut its estimate for growth this year to 3.7% (from an earlier estimate of 5.1%) and 1% in 2023, from 3%. It sees inflation at 8.7% in October. Other experts suggest it may go higher. There will be a “historic squeeze” on household incomes.

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Trading:

The CGA Drinks Recovery Tracker shows average sales by value in Britain’s managed venues in the seven days to Saturday (4 June) were 21% up on the same week in 2019. However, the figure is inflated by the effect of the unique Jubilee period, which included bank holidays on Thursday and Friday, and the absence of a holiday in the comparative week three years ago.

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Rail strikes:

Government representatives on the Sunday morning circuit over the weekend were floating the idea of strikebreaking later this summer via repealing a legal ban on agency staff filling in for striking workers. Transport secretary Grant Shapps has suggested that changes could not be brought in quickly enough to affect the rail strikes scheduled for later this month. Mr Shapps tells readers of the Sunday Telegraph that ‘the country must not continue to be held to ransom.’

IPOs:

The Times has commented on recent IPO failures saying ‘investors who backed the flurry of companies that rode the pandemic sales boom to float on the stock market last year are already nursing losses of almost £10 billion.’

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Other issues:

The Telegraph reports that ‘steak shortages loom as fertiliser prices rocket’. It says that ‘prices are already up by 5pc on the year, but they are now predicted to go through the roof.’ Five percent, it must be said, is currently around half the level of inflation generally.

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KAM has commented on the wine industry saying that, in a survey of 500 wine consumers, some 53% said that it was important that the wine be natural and 48% said that it should be produced with sustainability in mind. Some 31% said that it should be organic but only 12% said that it should be vegan. As many as 74% of people said they would like pubs & restaurants to make it clearer which wines on their menus are organic, vegan, natural, sustainable and/or biodynamic.

UK Hospitality has announced the appointment of a new Skills Director, Sandra Kelly, to shape the future framework of skills in hospitality. it says this is a substantial commitment as UKH ‘positions skills policy development at the heart of its work’. It says it ‘will continue to work with industry partners, training providers and educational institutions to provide the perfect pathway for people of all ages to realise their ambitions to join and grow in hospitality.’

An independent review has recommended that smoking in hospitality outdoor areas alongside other external spaces should be banned as part of an initiative to make England smoke-free by 2030. It also included increasing the age of sale by one year, every year as well as offering vaping as a substitute, alongside information on the benefits of switching.

Cask Marque has launched the new website for Cask Ale Week. Last year over 32 million people were reached using #CaskAleWeek across multiple social media platforms. Cask Marque says that ‘with the support of the trade associations BBPA, UKH and Bii [it] will engage their membership and nearer the time a full media campaign will be announced and activated. CAMRA have already committed to have a consumer marketing campaign for cask during the month of September.’

The BBC reports that ice cream vendors could be forced to ditch their livelihoods as fuel prices rise. Industry body chairman Maurice “Moz” Murray, said of this summer: “Beyond doubt, we will lose vans.”

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

CNBC reports that the US will lift the Covid testing requirement for inbound air travellers. The decision to reverse the testing requirement will be reevaluated by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in 90 days.

IAG boss Luis Gallego has said that Covid and Brexit have played a major role in airport disruption. He says that ministers must shoulder some of the blame.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The Labour Dept in the US has reported that inflation hit 8.6% in May. It says that, as in the UK, the rising cost of living has been squeezing household spending. Food prices were up over 10% in the year to May and energy costs were up by more than 34%.

A poll of US consumers found that 63% now consider inflation to be a very serious problem. Some 69% say they have been negatively impacted.

The British Chambers of Commerce is do something substantial to boost world trade in goods and services.

Sterling sharply lower at $1.2282 and €1.1708. Oil price lower at $120.02. UK 10yr gilt yield sharply higher at 2.43%. World markets very weak on Friday with London set to open around 45pts lower as at 6.30am.

FORTHCOMING NEWS:

A little busier this week. Vianet reports full year numbers on Tuesday with Everyman Media’s AGM to be held on the same day. Whitbread hosts its AGM on Wednesday, when it will update on Q1 trading. Tortilla’s AGM is also Wednesday and 888 Holdings also hosts its annual meeting.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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