Langton Capital – 2022-07-22 – Fulham Shore (FY meet), GfK confidence, D&D, costs, holidays etc.:
Fulham Shore (FY meet), GfK confidence, D&D, costs, holidays etc.:A DAY IN THE LIFE: Whilst the gardeners out there may well be praying for rain, I’m at the very least conflicted. And, if push came to shove, I have to admit that I’d rather whizz around on the lawnmower cutting what looks like a mixture of feeble straw and vegetative dust, rather than have to battle my way around a verdant jungle of foot high grass that clogs up the machine and can double or treble the time that it takes to do the job. Of course I have to agree that crop failures and nationwide hunger might be rather a high price to pay for a somewhat easier grass cutting experience but, despite my occasionally buoyant ego, I have to concede that I’m very much a weather-taker rather than a weather-maker, so doing anything about it is very much above my pay-grade. Anyway, we’ve made it to the end of another week and, with the weather in the teens again, it’s all rather a lot more comfortable. We’ve family up from London and another couple of pub meals in the offing. We’re doing our bit for the trade alongside squeezing in Sutton Bank and Kirkham Priory walks, Yorkshire Lavender and Castle Howard visits and the odd BBQ. Beer will feature. It’ll be interesting with the puppy, of course, but somebody has to do this kind of thing. Have a good one and on to the news: LANGTON EMAIL: The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade. Prices for the Premium at time of writing are £345 for one subscription, £595 for multiple, both plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option HERE FULHAM SHORE – FULL YEAR ANALYSTS’ PRESENTATION: Following the release of its full year numbers to end-March, the Fulham Shore hosted a meeting for analysts and our comments are set out below: • Run rate revenue is over £100m a year. EBITDA was £12.4m. Even excluding government grants of £1.6m, this is materially ahead of FY20. Rents are static (where they cannot go down) and lower for new leases. Energy costs may rise from around 2% of revenue to around 3%. This is still low by many standards but is clearly a headwind. • See premium. Reply to this e/m to see a sample of the full email and / or to upgrade. PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Consumer confidence: GfK updates on UK consumer confidence saying that the ‘cost-of-living crisis is a red-hot issue for consumers.’ It says that the ‘long-running Consumer Confidence Index was flat in July at minus 41… • See premium. Reply to this e/m to see a sample of the full email and / or to upgrade. City AM reports that ‘over 30m Brits have been forced to seek an additional source of income due to the pinch on their finances’. That seems like rather a large number… • See premium. Reply to this e/m to see a sample of the full email and / or to upgrade. Other news: Lumina Intelligence estimates that the UK convenience market is set to grow +3.2% to £45.2bn in 2022… The Plan B mentoring platform, which was created to accelerate women’s representation on boards across the hospitality sector, is to hold its first conference ‘to inspire more business leaders to create the inclusive cultures where diverse talent will thrive.’ The inaugural, ‘Accelerating Change’ conference, will be held in London on 5 October and will feature high profile industry leaders including Jane O’Riordan, Emma Woods and Rob Pitcher. They will be joined by experts from the likes of Microsoft, Google and the BBC. As reported earlier in the week, the government is extending the Recovery Loan Scheme for a further two years. The ICAEW has welcomed the move… The Daily Mail comments on updates from M&B and Fuller’s yesterday and suggests that the outlook is challenging. This will not come as new news to operators… COMPANY NEWS: D&D London has launched a permanent venue for its outside event’s arm Alexander & Björck (A&B) at the site of the former Blueprint Café. The space has relaunched as Blueprint Event Space and can hold events ranging between 30-150 guests. Beam Suntory and its partner Edrington have agreed to sell the Maxxium Russia joint venture business to the local management team. The spirits giant began reviewing approaches to the future of its Russian business after it suspended shipments to Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. Members of union Starbucks Workers United launched an indefinite strike at a Boston site, obliging the unit to close, at least for the time being. HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: Pension fund provider Universities Superannuation Scheme is reported to have purchased the sites of Blackstone-owned holiday chain Butlin’s… Ongoing holiday flight disruption: One in 10 passport applications exceeded the 10-week turnaround that the Passport Office advises people to allow for. On a brighter note, a planned three-day strike by aircraft-refuelling workers at Heathrow was suspended… Result of disruption. The FT reports that demand for flights has fallen significantly among some of Europe’s largest airlines, following widespread disruption at airports. Flight & holiday pay settlements & labour issues. It’s a tight market. The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) and the European Travel Commission (ETC) warn that the current labour shortage could have serious implications on the recovery of Europe’s travel and tourism sector. Costs could increase. Ryanair is reported to have reached agreements with the Spanish and French pilot unions to restore pay and further improve pay annually until March 2027. The airline also said it would grow to 115% of its pre-Covid capacity. • See premium. Reply to this e/m to see a sample of the full email and / or to upgrade. OTHER LEISURE: Snap, which owns Snapchat, reported disappointing Q2 numbers yesterday and the shares fell by 25%… FINANCE & MARKETS: The ECB yesterday raised interest rates for the first time in more than 11 years… UK government debt rose by £22.9bn in June, up £4.1bn on the rate of increase a year earlier. Interest payments alone hit £19.4bn… Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, who formerly ran the FCA, has been criticised for failing to ensure that it did its job to protect British Steel pensioners who were given poor advice concerning moving their pensions to rival pension providers. Sterling mixed at $1.1961 and €1.1739. Oil lower at $105.03. UK 10yr gilt yield down 9bps at 2.04%. World markets mixed yesterday with London set to open up around 8pts as at 6.30am. FORTHCOMING NEWS: Fairly active on the corporate front next week with fewer ONS statistical releases: Tuesday sees a Q3 update from Compass Group with FY numbers from Games Workshop and then Q2 results from Coca Cola in the US. Wednesday and Marston’s updates on Q3. On Thursday, Virgin Wines reports H1 numbers. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: • See premium. Reply to this e/m to see a sample of the full email and / or to upgrade. |
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