Footfall, cities, delivery, insolvencies, CPG, PIER, GAW & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Sadly Fluffy the Guinea Pig, known to his friends as Peter, squeaked his last this weekend.

And, as his owner is our youngest child – and she’s 16 and getting beyond these things – I’m beginning to think that I may have buried my last rodent.

That’s not a disturbing euphemism, I hasten to add, but rather a reference to an actual burial which, with the ground like concrete after so much dry weather, turned out to be quite a task.

I tried the ‘don’t you think he’d be happier in the dustbin’ line but the chief mourner saw straight through that one and simply looked meaningfully at the shovel.

And it couldn’t be a shallow grave either, not with those grave robbing foxes prowling around. No, the hole had to be 50cm deep minimum in clay the consistency of a house brick and that took quite some doing, I can tell you. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Delivery:

The latest CGA & Slerp Hospitality at Home Tracker reveals that ‘restaurant and pub groups’ delivery and takeaway sales continue to plateau after booming during COVID lockdowns.’ The numbers suggest that ‘combined [delivery & take-away] sales in June 2022 were 23% below the level of June 2021…’

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Footfall:

Springboard reports that the very hot weather last week put a dampener on footfall. It says this was up 15% on last year but down 20% on 2019. Springboard says ‘the extreme heat last week severely impacted footfall across all retail destinations, but it was high streets that fared the worst as shoppers sought the temperature controlled environments offered by shopping centres and retail parks…’

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CGA and Wireless Social update on city centre sales.

The latest Top Cities survey on sales across the UK’s cities suggests that ‘hospitality drives Britain’s city-centre recovery in the first half of 2022.’ The survey concludes that ‘Glasgow and Bristol are Britain’s most vibrant cities in the first six months, but London struggles for footfall…’

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Discounting.

Worth keeping an eye on. A number of M&B brands, including Stonehouse & Harvester, are offering children’s meals for a pound.

The Consumer:

Asda’s monthly Income Tracker shows that one in five UK households now have a ‘negative disposable income’ with an average shortfall of £60 between their earnings and what they need to spend on essentials each month…

Insolvencies:

Accountant UHY Hacker Young reports that UK restaurant insolvencies are up by 64% on the year from 856 in 2020/21 to 1,406 in the past year. It says there have been 431 casualties in the last quarter alone…

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Working from home:

Workplace provider IWG claims that office attendance is up by a third compared to January.

On the other hand, BNP Paribas reports that sales of London offices have dropped sharply and values are being revised lower as rising interest rates and fears of a recession are threatening a ‘reset’.

Pragma Consulting reports that there are over 26,000 coffee shops in the UK, up from 6,000 in 1999. Independents count for 28% of the 26k…

Competition for staff is hotting up, with Aldi increasing pay for 26,000 shop floor staff by 40p per hour to a minimum of £10.50 per hour across the UK, and £11.95 within the M25, from September. The fresh wage hike takes Aldi’s investment into pay to £43m this year alone.

COMPANY NEWS:

Compass updates on Q3 trading.

Compass Group has reported ‘accelerating net new business growth’ and says that it is ‘increasing FY 2022 organic revenue growth guidance to around 35%.’ It says underlying revenue is now 109% of 2019 levels with organic revenue growth of 43.4%, an acceleration from 37.9% in HY 2022…

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The Brighton Pier Group has updated on full year trading to end-June, saying that trading has been ‘ahead of expectations with record revenues of £40.1 million…’

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Stonegate reports managed LfLs up 2.3% for the 28 weeks to 10 April 2022, with total revenue of £827m compared to £128m the prior year, with sales recovering well since reopening.

Indian food delivery firm Zomato’s shares fell by as much as 14.3% yesterday after the lock-in period for investors who had stakes in the company prior to the IPO came to an end. The stock dropped to as low as 46.15 rupees, giving the company a market cap of $4.5bn, far below the $13.2bn valuation it accrued on its debut day a year ago.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Access to staff:

A CV-Library survey has found that more than two in five airport workers are considering quitting, with two out of three of those surveyed claiming they had not had a pay rise in the past 12 months.

Covid. Down but not out.

Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary has warned that ‘we cannot ignore the risk of new Covid variants in autumn 2022… the strength of any recovery will be hugely dependent upon there being no adverse or unexpected developments over the remainder of FY23.’

Brexit travel checks.

Chris Grey, in his blog, has highlighted that ‘The damage of Brexit is probably at its most visible when holiday traffic builds up at ports, especially Dover and Folkestone, as happened this weekend…

Strike action.

Some 40,000 members of the RMT union  working at Network Rail and 14 train operators will walk out on Wednesday, with Network Rail saying only 20% of services will run. People are being told only to travel by train if necessary during the latest national strikes.

US hotels. Recession fears.

Hotel New Now reports that, with a raft of major US hotel companies about to report Q2 earnings, ‘the focal point of the second-quarter earnings season for hotel brand and real estate investment trust is expected to be on the severity of a potential recession.’

OTHER LEISURE:

Games Workshop has reported full year numbers to 29 May saying that revenue rose from £369.5m to £414.8m with PAT up to £156.5m from £150.9m. EPS is 391.3p vs 372.7p last year. CEO Kevin Rountree says it has ‘been another astonishing year.’

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The CBI yesterday reported that British industrial output grew at the slowest pace in over a year in the three months to July. It says ‘the manufacturing sector has been an economic bright spot in recent months, but output and orders have softened amid ongoing cost pressures, supply challenges and a generalised weakening in economic conditions both in the UK and globally.’

Sterling up at $1.2068 and €1.1797. Oil higher at $106.61. UK 10yr gilt yield unchanged at 1.94%. World markets mixed yesterday. London set to open up around 8pts as at 6.30am.

FORTHCOMING NEWS:

Fairly active on the corporate front this week with fewer ONS statistical releases:

Tuesday sees a Q3 update from Compass Group with FY numbers from Games Workshop as well as a full year trading update from Brighton Pier Group and then Q2 results from Coca Cola in the US. Wednesday and Marston’s updates on Q3. On Thursday, Virgin Wines reports H1 numbers.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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