Just Eat, Nightcap, GYM, YUM, consumer, inflation, insolvencies etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Do you ever feel guilty throwing away junk mail, because I still get a twinge.

Admittedly, there might not be as much of it these days as there was in the past but, when you get one of those embossed letters asking ‘Do You Want to Borrow £50,000’ or speculatively (and in this case sans relevance) telling you ‘We Can Help With Your Wealth Management,’ I do sometimes wonder what it cost the companies in question to badger me with their rubbish.

Of course, whilst the paper, packaging and postage probably cost a pretty penny, the vendors themselves will add the cost onto the fees charged to those who take them up on their offers. And that doesn’t seem fair but Client Acquisition Costs, well known to anyone who’s every heard any online or disruptive technology blurb, are one of those lines in the management accounts that are always going to come down but rarely do.

Anyway, on to the news:

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JUST EAT – H1 ANALYSTS WEBINAR:

Following the release of its H1 numbers, Just Eat Takeaway hosted a webinar for analysts and our comments thereon are set out below:

Investment in growth:

• The company has spent many hundreds of millions of Euros on building and expanding its network. In terms of GTV, the co is 2x the size it was in 2019. The co is no1 in 17 of its 22 markets.

Profitability:

• The group says it was EBITDA positive in 3 of its 4 markets in Q2. It made losses in Southern Europe & ANZ. Northern Europe moved backwards in H1 but, overall, the EBITDA loss fell by €55m. See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £324, multiple £595.

THE CONSUMER, ECONOMIC FORECASTS ETC.

Plenty of surveys around. Directionally, they are saying the same thing.

The NIESR has warned that the UK could be running into a period of stagflation. It expects interest rates to rise, for inflation, which it describes as ‘astronomical’, to hit new near-term records in the autumn and for the economy to contract…

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Separately, the Resolution Foundation reports, in its analysis ‘In The Dread Of Winter’ that inflation could hit 15% early next year. It concedes that some commodity prices have fallen from their peaks….

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The Markit UK service sector PMI for July shows that ‘activity growth eased to its slowest in the past 17 months during July as inflationary pressures and the cost-of-living squeeze resulted in heightened economic uncertainty.’ The July PMI was 52.6 vs 54.3 in June. Any number over 50.0 implies expansion. Expectations were for around 53.3…

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Inflation:

Surveys above saying inflation is set to rise further. At the industry level, BrewDog’s James Wat has commented on inflation saying ‘the inflation numbers are lying to us.’ He says that the headline is ‘nothing like the full picture’ and adds that costs specific to brewing have risen by more than the official numbers…

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Corporate insolvencies in England and Wales jumped by more than 80% in the past quarter from a year earlier, driven by higher costs, supply and staff shortages, and the withdrawal of Covid support packages from the government…

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Other news:

BT Sport will increase prices by 6.8% from 1 September, which it said was below RPI. The company is also launching a new ultra-HD channel this year for pubs, which will be at no additional cost…

Affordable treats. Not London prices. Popped to the pub to stretch the puppy’s legs and for tea last night. Two steak pie & chips & a pint & a half of Yorkshire Blonde for £27.45. We may go again.

See ‘The Consumer, Economic Forecasts etc.’ for comment on July’s Services PMI.

COMPANY NEWS:

Comment on JET numbers & conference call – see also comments above:

Just Eat Takeaway.com’s (JET) shares rose 6.7% yesterday. They are still down over 70% on a one-year view. The Press this morning focuses on the Grubhub write down. This is Money reports Just Eat orders slide after hospitality venues reopen but rising food prices boost takeaway giant’s revenues. The company’s interim results meeting emphasised the business decision to sell whole or part of both Grubhub and iFood. Management said nothing was ruled out, which could include the company rationalising some of its more fringe international markets. It also said it is exploring all other non-dilutive alternative financing options.

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Nightcap has updated on trading for its year to 3 July 2022 saying that it ‘finished its financial year ended 3 July 2022 with continued positive trading during the final 13 weeks of the year…’

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Yum! Brands reports Q2 worldwide system sales excluding foreign currency translation up 3%, with KFC at 1%, Taco Bell at 10% and Pizza Hut flat. The company added 781 gross units during Q2, resulting in 463 net new units. This was offset by the removal of 1,165 Russia units for a total decline in unit count of 702 units during Q2…

The Wolseley Hospitality Group (TWHG) says it is being ‘forced to close’ its Café Wolseley restaurant at Bicester Village against its wishes after having its lease prematurely terminated. TWHG’s statement says ‘no satisfactory commercial reason was given, with Value Retail instead relying on a lease technicality’.

Co-op extends its Deliveroo partnership for three more years, adding another 110 stores to Deliveroo by the end of the year. The expansion means that 1,400 Co-op stores will be offering grocery delivery through Deliveroo.

Xi’an Biang Biang Noodles are looking to open in Covent Garden. The company specialises in hand-made ‘belt’ noodles, a signature dish from Xi’an province. The original restaurant came from the people behind Highbury’s Xi’an Impression, and who also own Tofu Vegan in Islington.

eBay yesterday reported lower, but nonetheless better-than-expected Q2 numbers…

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Per Travel Weekly, travel agent sales are exceeding expectations as airport chaos eases…

The Airport Operators Association is reporting ‘no problems’ so far regarding flight disruption over the first week of August.

OTHER LEISURE:

Gym Group has reported H1 numbers to end-June, saying that revenue was up by 187% to £84.2m with adjusted EBITDA up 400% at £33.5m. The group is reporting a loss before tax of £4.7m compared with a loss last year of £27.4m. The loss per share is 2.6p (2021: loss 13.1p) and there is no dividend, partly due to restrictive banking covenants…

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The Bank of England updates on interest rates at lunchtime today.

Trading platform Robinhood is cutting 23% of its staff. Revenues have fallen in the wake of the crypto-currency crash.

Sterling mixed at $1.2152 and €1.1958. Oil lower at $97. UK 10yr gilt yield up 9bps at 1.93%. World markets up yesterday and London set to open up around 5pts as at 6.30am.

FORTHCOMING NEWS:

It’s August and the week is running out but, nonetheless, we still this week have scheduled updates from Gym Group on this side of the Atlantic and further Q2 numbers on the other.

The Bank of England opines on interest rates later today and Halifax briefs on house prices on Friday.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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