Langton Capital – 2022-08-22 – Trading, confidence, fuel bills, Carlsberg, JET, CINE, Nightcap etc.:
Trading, confidence, fuel bills, Carlsberg, JET, CINE, Nightcap etc.:A DAY IN THE LIFE: Judging by the out-of-office replies, we’re not alone in taking holidays this time of year. We’re back from a week in the North East just now and very pleasant it was to have a break too. We’re now a week in London before having it away on our toes to Shropshire or thereabouts for the stump of the week after Bank Holiday Monday and after that, sadly but inevitably, it’ll be back to work for real and, before you know it, we’ll be on the run in to Christmas. We’ll remain silent on the football other than to say that the Mighty Hull City managed to concede its unbeaten record and its positive goal difference all in the space of ninety minutes on Saturday when what must have been an attempt to give our goalkeeper some work experience went spectacularly wrong and we accidentally let in five goals. And that’s enough of that. Still, whilst Hull City might be teeing up the inevitable relegation struggle earlier than is often the case, the news from politics, the economy and the sector must be positive, mustn’t it? LANGTON EMAIL: The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade. Prices for the Premium at time of writing are £345 for one subscription, £595 for multiple, both plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option HERE VERY BRIEF CATCH UP… Consumer confidence: Friday saw GfK confirm that consumer confidence had fallen to its lowest level in the almost 50yrs that it has been tracking the measure. The measure for August slipped to minus 44 with all five measures of GfK’s indicators down versus July. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £324, multiple £595. Inflation: Numbers last Wednesday saw the headline inflation number for CPI rise to 0.1%, the first time it has been in double figures since the early 80s. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £324, multiple £595. Wage inflation numbers. Out on Tuesday last week, these confirmed that the labour market remained tight and that real wages were falling at the ‘fastest rate on record’. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £324, multiple £595. Company trading: The latest Coffer CGA Business Tracker (for July) came out last week. It concludes that ‘July’s like-for-like sales at Britain’s top managed pub, bar and restaurant groups held steady against pre-COVID-19 levels of July 2019.’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £324, multiple £595. Company news: • Carlsberg reported strong Q2 numbers on Wednesday… • Just Eat shares rose sharply on iFoods disposal news. • DPP announced a fundraise. Wynnstay Group likewise. • The MCA reported Brakspear as saying ‘we are back in survival mode’. • The Hush Collection reported full year numbers to end-Dec with turnover 8.7% up from 2019. • Cineworld shares collapsed (see below). PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Current & upcoming trading: CGA’s Drinks Recovery Tracker shows that average sales by value in managed venues across the week to 13 August were up 9% on 2019 levels. Six of the seven days were in 2022-on-2019 growth, driven by higher temperatures. Research from KAM shows that 29% of consumers expect to visit restaurants less in the next 12 months due to the ongoing squeeze on discretionary incomes… Labour issues: The ONS reports that the average monthly wage of a hospitality worker has increased by 6.4% since the beginning of 2022. Cost of living crisis: Commenting on the current energy crisis, Alex Reilley, chair of Loungers, tweets ‘we hedged our energy contract in May ‘21 (pure luck as that’s when our contract ended) until 2024. If we had to enter into a hedge today it would cost an EXTRA £17m!’… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £324, multiple £595. Uswitch has commissioned research that suggests consumers have been underestimating and continue to underestimate just how much fuel bills will shortly rise. The BBC reports that people under 30 are facing a growing cost-of-renting crisis with four in ten of this age group now spending more than 30% of their pay on rent. It comes as younger people’s finances are being squeezed, amid rapidly rising living and rental costs, and a fall in real incomes… Supply issues. Dock workers at Felixstowe have started an 8dy strike over pay. This will not help with deliveries that have already been impacted by Covid and, latterly, by lockdowns in China. Travel disruption. Train strikes continue this week. City centre footfall is likely to be reduced as a result. Commenting on the ongoing rail strikes, Michael Kill CEO of the NTIA has said that they risk doing ‘irreparable damage’ to his industry… Market size: The latest Market Recovery Monitor from CGA by NielsenIQ and AlixPartners reveals that, in terms of outlets at least. ‘Britain’s licensed sector has stabilised in Q2’… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £324, multiple £595. COMPANY NEWS: Just Eat Takeaway shares jumped by 40% on Friday, driven by its agreement to sell its stake in Brazil’s iFood… Nightcap has announced the opening of a Tequila-focussed bar, the first new site for its Barrio brand following its acquisition, in Covent Garden in November… Taco Bell has opened its 100th UK site, located in Spalding in Lincolnshire, following 18 months of rapid growth. Further sites in Torquay and Hornchurch will launch in the coming days. Tim Hortons has opened its first dark kitchen in London, with Kevin Hydes, Chief Commercial Officer of Tim Hortons franchise in the UK saying ‘This dark kitchen delivery format allows us to trial a new concept, focusing on a fast delivery service throughout the day and we are excited by the potential it offers.’ Stars Coffee, the Russian replacement for existing Starbucks outlets, opened its first Moscow café on Thursday… Amazon is reported to have paused its UK roll-out of its till-free grocery stores. The Times reports it was ‘facing disappointing sales at the 19 check-out free shops it already has in the UK. HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: The GMB union has suspended planned strike action by security staff at Leeds Bradford airport ahead of the August bank holiday. GMB negotiator Joe Wheatley said ‘Following a number of commitments put forward by Leeds Bradford bosses to improve pay, we now need to fully consult with our members working in security at the airport.’ OTHER LEISURE: Cineworld has this morning commented on media speculation and confirms that it is considering bankruptcy protection… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £324, multiple £595. Cineworld shares fell by around 80% last week as concerns mounted that the world’s second largest cinema chain was about to file… Former Manchester United director Michael Knighton is backing Sir Jim Ratcliffe to become the new owner of the club. However, the American Glazer family has given no indication it is willing to bow to fan pressure by selling the club after 17 years of controversial ownership. FINANCE & MARKETS: Interest payments on UK government debt rose by around 40% in July. Comparing current prices with our last email on 12 August, Sterling is markedly weaker at $1.1828 and €1.1782. Oil is lower at $95.48 and the UK 10yr gilt yield is sharply higher at 2.42% (up 35bps). Markets were mixed to lower on Friday & London is set to open around 7pts lower (as at 6.30am). FORTHCOMING NEWS: Very quiet week in the run up to the August Bank Holiday weekend. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: Nick is taking a well-earned break & is back after the Bank Holiday. |
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