Langton Capital – 2022-09-13 – Fever Tree, Bank Holiday, London hotels, wage growth, Liberation etc.:
Fever Tree, Bank Holiday, London hotels, wage growth, Liberation etc.:A DAY IN THE LIFE: I was informed by one useless app or another yesterday that there was a 13% chance it would rain and, therefore, presumably an 87% chance that it would not. However, as I was in the process of getting drenched at the time, I was a big buyer at 13 ad 100 was nearer the mark. Anyway, enough of that. On to the news: LANGTON EMAIL: The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade. Prices for the Premium at time of writing are £345 for one subscription, £595 for multiple, both plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option HERE THE IMPACT OF ANOTHER BANK HOLIDAY… Introduction: The below went out to clients earlier in the week. The government has announced that ‘Monday 19 September will be a bank holiday to coincide with Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II’s State Funeral.’ But what does that mean? • Bank Holidays elicit mixed emotions. They are popular with people getting the day off work but are often less so with employers. See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Death of Queen Elizabeth: Industry reaction. Pub and restaurant operators are coming to their own decisions with regards to trading over the next 10dys or so… Transport. The Rail Delivery Group has said services to, and stations in the capital will be ‘extremely busy’ from Wednesday as the Queen lays in state… Hotel prices are said to be on the rise in London ahead of the Queen’s lying in state and funeral. It would be odd, in a way, if they were not… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. The labour market: The ONS has this morning reported that ‘growth in average total pay (including bonuses) was 5.5% and growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 5.2% among employees in May to July 2022.’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. The ONS says ‘the number of job vacancies in June to August 2022 was 1,266,000, a decrease of 34,000 from the previous quarter and the largest quarterly fall since June to August 2020.’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Footfall: Springboard has reported that heavy rain on most days last week, together with the start of the new school term, impacted footfall across UK retail destinations last week. Footfall largely recovered by the weekend when the rain cleared, although this was wholly driven by increases in activity in high streets… S4Labour reports that the summer holiday period saw a 4.1% decline in hospitality spend… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Unit numbers: PwC reports that the rate of pandemic store closures (across the whole of retail) has begun to ease, with net closures at their lowest since 2017… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Energy costs: The energy industry has told new PM Liz Truss that her government has days to save some business from collapse… The Resolution Foundation says that richer households will receive twice as much support with their energy bills as will poorer households. Other news: The Welsh Conservatives have called for a review of Wales’s minimum unit price (MUP) for alcohol laws. COMPANY NEWS: Fever Tree has reported H1 numbers to end-June saying that revenue rose 6% to £53.5m with adjusted EBITDA down by 25% at £21.9m. The PBT was £17.6m (2021: £25.3m) and diluted EPS is 12.1p down from 17.4p. The company is paying a dividend of 5.63p, up 2% on last year. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Parsley Box, which specialises in the delivery of ready meals to the over 65 demographic, has reported H1 numbers saying that ‘revenue fell by 32% period on period as high online shopping volumes experienced during the pandemic.’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Marston’s has reported that CEO Andrew Andrea bought 38,000 shares in the company at 40.6p on 7 September. Channel Islands-based pub, brewing and drinks company Liberation Group has reported a ‘strong summer of trading across the UK and the Channel Islands…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Yum! Brands has authorised a share repurchase programme which will see the company repurchase $2bn in shares of common stock through June 30, 2024. Papa John’s reports that it has ‘literally ‘delivered’ a new store to UK holiday park operator, Haven’s Riviere Sands resort in Cornwall.’ This because the unit is a ‘new ‘modular pod’’ and is a ‘containerised solution, mainly built off site and craned into position.’ HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: Travel Weekly reports that ski specialists are reporting no signs of an impact of the cost-of-living crisis… Japanese officials may further relax border controls for foreign travellers as the country seeks to benefit from the weak yen… Heathrow Airport reports that it saw 6 million passengers in August, up from 2.2 million in the same month last year, but still down on 2019’s 7.7 million. Heathrow is continuing to cap the number of daily departing passengers due to staff shortages. FINANCE & MARKETS: For wage & employment data, see Pubs & Restaurants above. The ONS reports that the UK economy grew 0.2% in July. This is a) a welcome return to growth after the minus 0.6% seen in June but b) it is less than expected… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. The BCC comments on UK trade data saying ‘July was a better month for UK trade than the previous month. We are seeing trade in fuels, particularly oil and gas, at elevated levels. Vehicle and other mechanical engineering exports did well too…’ The FT suggests that UK builders and estate agents are ‘braced for s UK housing downturn.’ The Times points out that low-rate mortgages have dried up… Interest rates: City AM quotes City economists as saying that ‘the Bank of England could be forced to hike interest rates to their highest level since October 2008 to offset Liz Truss’s around £150bn energy support stoking inflation…’ Sterling higher at $1.1687 and €1.1536. Oil up at $93.69. UK 10yr gilt yield down 6bps at 3.05%. World markets better yesterday but London set to open down by around 16pts as at 6.30am. FORTHCOMING NEWS: This week remains quiet on the company front with numbers from Fever Tree today and Artisinal Spirits tomorrow. The Bank of England’s MPC announcement has been postponed following the death of the Queen. Official GDP stats on Monday, Labour Market stats today and CPI numbers tomorrow. Retail sales on Friday. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. |
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