Langton Capital – 2022-09-23 – Consumer confidence, mini-Budget, NIC, costs, footfall, SSP & other:
Consumer confidence, mini-Budget, NIC, costs, footfall, SSP & other:A DAY IN THE LIFE: Despite being only four working days in length, it’s felt like a weirdly long week. And the prior sentence reminds us of a couple of sayings / anecdotes which, if you don’t know who said them, and I don’t, you can always ascribe to Churchill, Oscar Wilde, Shakespeare or Mark Twain in any random order: • ‘Do you know ‘sugar’ is the only word in the English language in which the S is sounded as an Sh.’ Are you sure? • ‘In English, it’s always I before E except after C’. Really, that’s weird. • ‘If there’s one thing I’d never be, it’s a hypocrite…’ • I’ve told you a million times, don’t exaggerate. There’s nothing worse than a person who resorts to hyperbole etc. Anyway, enough of that. We’ve another day of economic and other announcements to get through so, without further ado, let’s move on to the news. Have a good weekend: LANGTON EMAIL: The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade. Prices for the Premium at time of writing are £345 for one subscription, £595 for multiple, both plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option HERE https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=87YUG2Z5W7PSN GfK UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE NUMBERS: Headline: GfK has reported that ‘Consumer Confidence tumbles to new low of minus 49 in September’. The combined personal finances number is minus 40, some 45pts lower than this time last year. GfK says there are ‘deep concerns about personal finances and the economy over [the] next 12 months’. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Economics & government: Today’s ‘fiscal event’ (a.k.a. Mini Budget) will feature the reversal of NIC rises and Corporation Tax hikes (already announced) and may give some detail on energy help. There may be comment on Business Rates (currently on the ‘too difficult’ pile) and VAT… The near term outlook. We hear a more from the government later today but this week has already seen changes in energy costs and the interest rate outlook. Re interest rates, UKH CEO Kate Nicholls comments that the rise in rates ‘has a two-pronged negative impact on an already struggling hospitality sector…’ Interpath Advisory head of debt advisory John Miesner stated base rates had been predicted to soar as high as 4% or more over the next 12 months… The ONS has reported that over a quarter of businesses (26%) reported a fall in revenues last month. It says that restaurants, pubs and bars were particularly badly hit with almost a half saying that turnover have fallen month-on-month. Around a fifth of businesses believe that revenues will fall again in October. The consumer, income levels, cost of living crisis: Data from the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy showed that a litre of petrol now costs an average of 165.5p… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. The Times points out that almost four million households have bought houses for the first time since the financial crisis and, for them, this is the first period of rising interest rates that they have ever experienced. The mini-Budget today is likely to tighten up on benefits with people working part-time to be told to look for extra hours or face benefit cuts. Corporate costs: New chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng has announced that April’s National Insurance hike is to be reversed from 6 November… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. UK Hospitality says ‘the 1.25% National Insurance reverse to be announced in Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-Budget tomorrow (Friday) is ‘excellent news’ for the sector and its customers.’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Supply costs: The US market is hoping to see the “substantial” deflation of poultry prices beginning in Q1 2023 but beef prices could rise another 15% and remain high until 2025. To the extent that these prices will be global, the same moves could be expected in the UK… Other news: CGA and Wireless Social update on footfall across the UK’s major cities saying that ‘hospitality fuels city centre vibrancy, but cost pressures threaten recovery.’ The report says that ‘pubs, bars and restaurants continue to drive the post-COVID-19 recovery of Britain’s top cities…but with costs soaring for consumers and businesses, the hospitality sector needs urgent support to help keep urban centres vibrant… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Commenting on the extension of permissions, licensing solicitor Poppleston Allen says ‘operators can continue to provide off-sales as before.’ Some quite large moves – both up but mostly down – across hospitality yesterday. City Pub Broup up 9%, Hostelworld 6%, Various Eateries 5% & Ten Entertainment 4% better with losers including Carnival & Jet2 down 4%, EasyJet and Entain down 5%, Deliveroo down another 6%, Playtech 10% lower and Hostmore down by 12%. Working from home. Microsoft has commissioned a survey that finds that bosses, some 80%, believe workers do less work when working from home. Some 87% of workers, however, believed that they worked as, or more efficiently, from home. COMPANY NEWS: SSP Group opens two new bespoke Thai concepts – Koh Hop Bar and Imm Rice & Noodle – at Suvarnabhumi International Airport (BKK), Thailand. A number of Papa John’s sites, including those in Plymouth and Guildford closed suddenly last week as the company addresses some issues. The Craft Beer Co. has announced that it is opening a brand-new site next to Paddington train station in November 2022. The Craft Beer Co was the first pub group in London dedicated to craft beer and is still 100% owned by its two founders… Dessert restaurant concept, Creams Cafe, has announced that it is to create an Emergency Franchise Partner Support package to help and guide its partners through inflationary pressures. HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: Great Rail Journeys research shows that long-haul destinations such as the US, Canada and Asia feature in a top ten of bucket list holiday regions for 2023… Business travel. A survey from HRS and the GBTA found that 54% of North American and European travel and procurement specialists had seen travel accelerate either ‘more quickly’ or ‘much more quickly’ this year than they had anticipated back in January. With a view to retiring expensive debt, Royal Caribbean Cruises reported yesterday that it had commenced a private offering of $1bn of senior guaranteed notes due 2029… October strike dates keep coming through with the RMT saying it will be ‘effectively shutting down the rail network’ when around 40,000 workers from Network Rail and 15 train operators go on strike again on 8 October. The RMT and ASLEF have already announced strikes on 1 and 5 October. In the US, the ‘Visit America Act’ will see the Biden administration create the new role of assistant secretary of commerce for travel and tourism. The assistant secretary’s responsibilities will include setting an annual goal for the number of international visitors to the US, providing support for improved visitor visa processing and promoting travel exports abroad. OTHER LEISURE: Manchester United has announced that revenues rose by 18% to £583.2m in the 2021-22 season. The company reported a net loss of £115.5m, up from around £92m of losses in the previous season. Debt rose from £419.5m in 2021 to £514.9m… Streaks Gaming has notified the markets of its intention to float on the London Stock Exchange, giving the company a pre-new money valuation of £10.2m. The company will look to raise between £5m and10m through an initial public offering. HMV’s new record label has signed its first artist in more than 20 years. The first signing is India Arkin, a singer-songwriter from Newcastle, and Putman said the label expected in future to sign two or three artists a year. Times Wasps are reportedly about to enter into administration after receiving a Winding Up Petition from HMRC. Wasps owner Derek Richardson insists the club will not go into administration. FINANCE & MARKETS: The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee yesterday raised UK rates by 50bps to 2.25%. The raise was somewhat less than the suggested 75bps… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Emphasis moving from inflation to recession. The Bank of England reports ‘there has been some modest downside news to underlying UK GDP growth in 2022 Q3.’ It says ‘the level of consumer spending is likely to have peaked in this quarter…’ Feedback on the interest rate move: BCC, CBI, UKH etc.: • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. The IFS says that the levels of debt proposed by the government (although there will be no OBR guidance today) will not be sustainable in the medium term… Sterling weaker on the rate hike at $1.1231 and €1.1428. Oil down at $89.98. UK 10yr gilt yield up another 19bps at 3.51%. World markets lower yesterday but London set to open up some 18pts as at 6.30am. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: Nick is taking a well-earned break. |
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