Langton Capital – 2022-10-18 – RBG, Jet2, 888, current trading, footfall, U-turns, Xmas plans & other:
RBG, Jet2, 888, current trading, footfall, U-turns, Xmas plans & other:A DAY IN THE LIFE: We were trawling through our archive yesterday, specifically we were looking at some of the notes we put out in 2007-09, a time that saw the tail end of the ‘anything with property’ boom that featured take-private bids and a huge gearing up across the sector – and then the credit crunch and all that that entailed. And, whilst trading now is tough, it’s different. The earlier period was perhaps best encapsulated by the US banking attitude that, while the music was playing, you had to dance. And this even if you thought – or knew – that fundamentals were going out of the window, which was followed by a huge shock and a period of intense silence, grief and collapse. This time, we have had a number of serious body blows staggered over a longer period. Maybe too much PR cash and overcapacity, Brexit and a lack of labour, 2018 and its humiliating CVAs, Covid, lockdowns, supply problems and now the war in Ukraine, inflation and rising energy and debt costs alongside an ongoing shortage of staff. So, pick your poison. We might include a few articles from the archive at some point. On to the news: LANGTON EMAIL: The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade. Prices for the Premium at time of writing are £345 for one subscription, £595 for multiple, both plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option HERE https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=87YUG2Z5W7PSN PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Current trading: CGA by NielsenIQ reports that restaurants, pubs and bars are driving the post-Covid in cities but that inflation and strikes are hitting the recovery. Birmingham tops the report’s list of most vibrant cities for the second successive period, ahead of Glasgow, with Manchester in third place… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Springboard reports on footfall saying that, vs 2019, it was down by 9.6% in the week to 15 October though it was up by 8.9% on 2021… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Working from home: To some extent this reflects the flip side of the above. Foodservice analyst Peter Backman comments on data produced by Transport for London and says that the average number of passengers passing through City of London stations pre-Covid was 740k and it is now 505k or 68% of the pre-Covid level. Christmas and near term future trading: Mixed feedback on early indications as to Christmas trading… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Interestingly, research by HGEM suggests that ‘60% of consumers are looking to spend less on hospitality in January and February.’ It adds that ‘most likely to cut spending are those in Gen-Z (66%) or 46-55 (67%) age groups, whereas Millennials and customers aged 56-65 are less likely to cut spending, as that percentage drops to 56% and 51%, respectively…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Government, U-turns etc: UKHospitality CEO Kate Nicholls has commented on various political U-turns by saying ‘the hospitality sector is so exposed to this crisis and has been devastated by it, which is why the energy support provided by the Government to help weather this storm, remains critically important and will help protect a vital industry…’ Michael Kill, CEO of the NTIA has said that the government’s U-turns has ‘[placed] an insurmountable level of pressure on businesses and people’s livelihoods…’ The BII says ‘whilst we recognise that Government is seeking to restore stability and confidence after months of turmoil, our members are facing immediate threats to their survival. They need meaningful support, to allow them to plan their recovery and be part of the growth that the Chancellor has stated is at the centre of Government’s plans…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Staffing issues: The BCC reports that firms are struggling to recruit with a noticeable increase in the number of hospitality firms trying to find staff at 77%, up significantly since the beginning of the year (62% in Q1). Overall, more than three quarters of firms (76%) attempting to recruit continue to report recruitment difficulties, the same as in Q2. .. The Labour party claims that hospitality and leisure workers are missing out on £200m a year in tip deductions… UKH CEO Kate Nicholls says re staff that it is ‘incredibly important that they fairly benefit from the tips left by customers.’ She adds ‘that’s why we support the Private Members’ Bill brought forward by Dean Russell MP, and backed by the government, which will ensure team members receive all of their tips and service charge – as proposed by Labour.’ The consumer: The flip side to reduced debt of the government’s series of U-turns yesterday is that the energy price cap will only be guaranteed for 6mths rather than the two years earlier envisaged. This could mean bills rising to £4,400 or more for the average house from spring next year… Which magazine has suggested that millions of people are paying too much for their broadband. It says companies are failing to promote their cheaper deals… Other news: SIBA has produced a report on the twenty-year anniversary of Small Breweries’ Relief commenting on the ‘huge impact the policy had on UK brewing, including a boom in small breweries and a huge increase in the number of different beer styles being brewed…’ Money Saving Expert’s Martin Lewis has called on the government to structure a support package to continue to help households with energy bills after the April guarantee falls away… COMPANY NEWS: Revolution Bars Group, which was due to report its full year numbers today, has delayed them because ‘it is in the final stages of negotiating an acquisition, which is expected to be a “substantial transaction”’. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Mark Crowther has been appointed as the Non-Executive Chairman of The Pub People Group of Companies, which was also recently merged with Autumn Pubs Limited. Mr Crowther previously successfully exited Liberation Group where he was CEO for eleven years having formed the group through its original buyout. He has also held senior positions at Carlsberg, Diageo and Allied Domecq. Pernod Ricard has upped its stake in US-based spirits and wine marketer Sovereign Brands as well as securing a deal that saw it buy into the Lenny Kravitz-partnered Mexican spirits brand Nocheluna Sotol. Greggs has won a landmark legal ruling in its dispute with its insurer over a £150 million claim for business interruption during Covid… Workers at packaging company DS Smith are currently voting over whether or not to go on strike. Ballots close on 2 November. The company supplies packaging to many of the UK’s best-known drinks companies including BrewDog, Pepsico and Diageo. Bensons for Beds has bought Eve Sleep out of administration. HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: Jet2 plc has announced ‘that to meet the future anticipated growth of its Leisure Travel business and to refresh its existing aircraft fleet, the Company has entered into an agreement with Airbus to purchase 35 new firm ordered Airbus A320 neo aircraft with the ability for this to extend to up to 71 aircraft.’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. UK CEO of Der Touristik, Derek Jones, has warned that it would be ‘irresponsible’ to not be prepared for a downturn in travel as it looks like there will be a ‘difficult two years’ ahead. Flash floods on Crete meant that 25 flights due to land at Heraklion airport had to be diverted. RMT rail workers are voting on whether to continue industrial action for a further six months. Ballots close on 15 November. OTHER LEISURE: 888 Holdings has reported Q3 numbers saying that total revenue is down 7% on the same period last year at £449m. For the nine months of the year to date, revenue is down 3% at £1.39bn. The numbers are pro-forma and include William Hill as though it had been owned in both periods. 888 says the revenue decline is ‘primarily driven by enhanced UK online player safety measures and the closure of the Netherlands.’ It says that retail revenue, of £124m, is ‘stable year over year despite c.£4m impact from three days of temporary closures together with sporting fixture cancellations / postponements during the period of national mourning.’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. FINANCE & MARKETS: Commenting on the various U-turns announced by new chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, the fourth in four months, the CBI says ‘the Chancellor is acting swiftly and firmly in looking to restore confidence to markets and businesses.’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. The outlook for interest rates is perhaps marginally less aggressive as a result of the U-turns mentioned above… The Bank of England yesterday commented on its supportive purchasing of gilts saying ‘as previously announced, the Bank terminated these operations and ceased all bond purchases on Friday 14 October. As intended, these operations have enabled a significant increase in the resilience of the sector.’ Goldman Sachs is predicting a deeper recession in the UK next year than it had previously suggested… Rightmove reports that house sellers are still demanding higher prices. It says prices rose by 0.9% in the month of October. Rightmove says there is ‘little sign of downwards price pressure.’ Sterling up yesterday on the series of government U-turns at $1.1404 and €1.1564. Oil price slightly lower at $92.36. UK 10yr gilt yield sharply lower at 3.97%. World markets better and London set to open up some 56pts as at 6.30am. YESTERDAY’S TWEETS: • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. |
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