Demographics, Disney, jobs market, footfall, Black Friday & more:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Today is 221122. Not going anywhere with that, just saying.

Anyway, in what is for me a rare attempt to get ahead of the curve, yesterday I decided to do something about the leaflet that came through the letter box telling me that, unless I returned them for credit, any postage stamps I had in my possession would cease to work on letters from end-Jan next year.

So, as they are pretty useless for anything other than the above-outlined purpose,.I had a scurry around and, expecting to find two or perhaps three stamps in various drawers, discarded wallets and coat pockets, I found 32.

Which is a material numbers and, as first class stamps apparently cost somewhere between 50p and two quid these days, I have no idea as to the correct figure, we were talking between four and 16 pints of bitter because beer, I do know the price of.

So they went off for credit and, in the fullness of time, I’m now expecting one of those rarest of all events, inbound money coming through the post.

Well done both the home teams in Qatar yesterday. On to the news.

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

The jobs market:

CGA & Fourth have reported that ‘one in nine hospitality jobs remain vacant despite recent improvements in recruitment.’ The firms’ ‘October Business Confidence Survey, that goes out to leaders of multi-site businesses, shows 11% of roles are vacant—a figure that is level with the last survey three months ago, but down from a peak vacancy rate of 15% at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic…’

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Meanwhile the Institute of Economic Affairs says ‘the gloomy news about the economy makes it likely that we will be seeing higher unemployment in the near future…’

Elsewhere, labour leader Sir Keir Starmer will tell the CBI conference in Birmingham later today that the British economy must be weaned off its “immigration dependency.” He says the focus should be on “investing more in training up workers who are already here”.

And Charlie Gilkes, founder of Inception Group, the operator behind bar and restaurant concepts like Mr Fogg’s, Cahoots and the new Control Room B at Battersea Power Station, has told The Evening Standard ‘the hospitality industry has the potential to light a fire under the economic revival of central London, but we are not trading all the hours we would like to.’ He says ‘it continues to be incredibly hard to find people who want to work in the sector. In past times, many people have come from Europe to London to work for two or three years, but that pool of workers has diminished since Brexit. We would like to employ more Brits but they aren’t applying in any great numbers.’

Footfall:

Per Springboard, footfall was up 1.3% YoY for the week ending 19 November, but down 2.5% on pre pandemic levels…

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Looking forward to this Friday’s Black Friday promotions, Springboard expects retail footfall to be up by 12.8% on 25 November (Black Friday) this year due to a likely shift to shopping in physical retail spaces. This shift to in store will be driven by the rise in postage charges and the increasing cost of returns. Springboard says footfall is still likely to be down by around 7.8% on Black Friday 2019…

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Insolvencies:

A study by the advisory firm Mazars has found that UK restaurant closures increased by 60% to 1,567 in 2021-22 compared to 2020-21. Rebecca Dacre, a partner at Mazars, said the increase in closures was being driven by ‘a very toxic mix of rising input costs, sharply rising finance costs and weak demand. Most restaurateurs have not seen this combination of negative factors before…’

Christmas:

Engineering works will cause disruption to the rail network over Christmas, would-be travellers have been warned…

The consumer.

Consumers have been warned that not all Black Friday bargains will actually be cheaper than they would have been at other times. Consumer magazine Which says 98% of the 214 deals that it looked at were cheaper or the same price at other times in the year.

The RAC has said that supermarkets are “taking advantage” of drivers with high fuel prices. It is demanding a 5p a litre cut for both petrol and diesel.

Other news:

Black Box Intelligence in the US has reported that, after a soft June and July, the US restaurant industry has grown strongly in August through to October with growth in October of around 5.2% on a LfL basis. Most of the upturn was down to price with footfall still down 3.2% on the prior year.

COMPANY NEWS:

Wendy’s plans to open its first UK store with franchise partner Square Burgers in December, to be located in Sheffield. Square Burgers will be focused on opening restaurants in South Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. In the long-term Wendy’s believes it could reach 300 to 400 restaurants in the UK.

The general manager of the famous Simpson’s Tavern in the City of London has said the future of the pub is ‘incredibly perilous’ despite raising £99,065 through crowdfunding. The pub is targeting £385k in order to ‘ensure the future of this institution in its entirety’.

LEON plans to more than double its self-serve coffee kiosks in the UK to in excess of 200 before the end of January. The business is owned by Blackburn-based petrol forecourts and retail operator EG Group and currently has coffee kiosks in 65 of EG’s convenience stores and 33 Asda stores.

The Inn Collection has acquired The Wordsworth Hotel in Grasmere for an undisclosed sum. The Inn Collection’s MD Sean Donkin comments ‘Grasmere is a beautiful village that enjoys a rich history through its connections with Wordsworth and the Heaton Cooper family and this acquisition lets us put down further roots in the community.’

Wilko is reported to have received a £30m emergency loan to get it through Christmas reports Company Rescue. There are reports that suppliers to the group can no longer source credit insurance.

Deliveroo is to ‘team up with Caffè Nero starting in November to deliver premium hand-crafted coffee drinks and deli food to customers across the UK.’ Nero says ‘customers will be able to order Caffè Nero favourites from over 400 locations across the UK on the Deliveroo platform.’

AJT Dimsum Ltd has acquired Ping Pong in a pre-pack administration, taking all 6 restaurants and keeping on all existing staff. AJT Dimsum is a new entity set up by Ping Pong’s existing management team.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

CEO of Manchester Airports Group Charlie Cornish has said there is “no doubt” that Brexit has damaged the UK economy. Or at least the bit of it that he can see. He says Brexit has “massively exacerbated” worker shortages…

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Shai Weiss, CEO of Virgin Atlantic, has called Heathrow Airport a ‘de facto monopoly’ and that the airport must ‘focus on all stakeholders and not just on the profits of Heathrow shareholders…’

Your Apartment, a UK-based serviced apartment & aparthotel company, has launched its brand new aparthotel concept in Milton Keynes. Each apartment is accessible using high spec digital key code access, as well as host Chromecast TV’s and air conditioning.

OTHER LEISURE:

Disney’s new (and former) boss Bob Iger is said to be planning a major shake-up of the firm in the next few weeks…

Penguin Random House is reported to have dropped its planned $2.2bn takeover of rival Simon & Schuster.

A survey by the ISBA and media investment analysts Ebiquity has found that 67% of UK advertisers will make the deepest budget cuts to ads on broadcast TV. Nearly 40% said they intended to cut spend in ‘offline’ media including traditional TV, radio, print and outdoor sites such as billboards, on buses and posters sites.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

In slapping down any idea of a move back towards the single market, PM Rishi Sunak yesterday told the CBI in Birmingham ‘I believe in Brexit and I know that Brexit can deliver, and is already delivering, enormous benefits and opportunities for the country.’ The CBI is calling for more immigration in the absence of free movement from Europe.

Sky reports on a poll by YouGov, saying ‘public support for Brexit has reached an all-time low’ and adding that ‘only 32% of Britons believe it was right to leave and 56% think it was wrong.’ It says this ‘marks a big swing in opinion, particularly since June 2021.’

CBI DG Tony Danker comments ‘it was great to hear the Prime Minister’s deeply held convictions and passion for innovation, and the role it can play as one of the most important drivers of the UK’s future economic growth.’ He goes on to say ‘what we didn’t get today are the details of the measures to achieve it. Businesses are making investment decisions now and need to hear more on this agenda as soon as possible.’

Deputy governor of the Bank of England Sir John Cunliffe has warned the crypto world is ‘not a stable ecosystem.’ He has cautioned that upheaval there could spread into the real world.

Sterling up slightly at $1.1834 and €1.1548. Oil a shade higher at $87.68. UK 10yr gilt yield off 3bps at 3.21%. World markets lower yesterday but London set to open up around 16pts as at 6.30am.

THE AQUIS MARKET:

Broker VSA Capital is hosting an Aquis Day on Tues 29 November at the Royal College of Surgeons (38-43 Lincoln’s Inn Fields, London, WC1A 3PE). The event will feature around 20 companies, who will present to attendants and take part in a competition to win the ‘Britain’s Got Aquis’ title. Judges on the day will include Andy Brough (Schroders) and Judith Mackenzie of Downing LLP. Tickets and details are available HERE

https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-vsa-capital-aquis-showcase-event-tickets-430890363677?aff=odeimcmailchimp&mc_eid=cfe56acbe0&mc_cid=cd83de005f

Attendance costs £20 – but Langton has a number of complimentary tickets and we’re open to suggestions as to who we should give them to…. Drop us a line.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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