Langton Capital – 2022-12-08 – M&B meeting, OTB, consumer squeeze, rail strikes, labour issues & other:
M&B meeting, OTB, consumer squeeze, rail strikes, labour issues & other:A DAY IN THE LIFE: Well, it’s been dark in the mornings for some time and, now, it’s frosty which, though it’s making the grass look pretty from a distance, is adding an element of danger to simple tasks like walking from A to B on what look like, because they are, very icy pavements. But it’s winter, what do you expect? I hear you ask and, in all honesty, it is entirely to be expected but, when taking the dog for a walk – she’s only 8mths old, this is her first winter and she’s only just getting her head around it being 41 degrees in what seems like the very recent past – it’s hard to prevent her from dragging you around on what is fast becoming something of an ice-rink out there. And, as she’s got four legs and I’ve only got two, I have to put considerably more effort into remaining upright than she does and, whilst that bothers her not a jot, it’s something I have to keep in mind. Anyway, enough of that. I’ll have to nip down the skateboard shop and stock up on knee and elbow protectors and wrist and spine braces. On to the news: LANGTON EMAIL: The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories (after the ellipses) are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade. Prices for the Premium at time of writing are £345 for one subscription, £595 for multiple, both plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option HERE https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=87YUG2Z5W7PSN MITCHELLS & BUTLERS FULL YEAR NUMBERS: Having previously updated on most of its full year on 29 Sept, M&B has this morning held its full year analysts’ meeting and our comments are set out below (and see also yesterday’s note): Trading & revenue: • Total revenue for the year is £2.208bn against £1.065bn in the prior year. MAB says that LfL sales were up by 1.1% in the year, comprising of +5.2% in food (helped in H1 by the lower rate of VAT) and a decrease of 4.1% in drink sales. The company said that drink volumes YoY were up c5%and price is up c6%. Food volumes are up “about 6/7%” but price is down YoY due to the VAT benefit falling out. • Management said that while volumes still lagged pre-pandemic, the YoY volume growth showed that “people [are] beginning to come back to the business”. The company reported a fall in the capacity of pubs and restaurants of 9.9% since March 2020, but caveated this saying that “a lot of it was secondary capacity” as primary sites often reopen again as restaurants further down the line. Management indicated that the company expects to see “a lot more” closures in the first quarter of the new year with it being “the smaller businesses that will really struggle”. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Consumer squeeze: Nick Bubb yesterday pointed out comments from Moonpig to the effect that ‘trading conditions have become progressively more challenging through October and November’. The company has downgraded revenue expectations… Sky has suggested that the era of cheap fuel supplied by supermarkets was over. It quotes an ‘industry source’ as saying motorists should not expect to see a return of supermarkets using cheap fuel to lure in shoppers… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Debt charity StepChange claims that 24% of people were in a comfortable financial position heading in to the festive season, compared with 45% in 2021… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Rail strikes: The RMT strikes next week are set to impact city centres next week with train passengers being told to only travel next week if it is absolutely necessary, even if strikes are called off. Network Rail, which owns and maintains Britain’s railway infrastructure, said 50% of the railways will be shut down on strike days, regardless of whether the walkouts go ahead. Energy costs: The CBI has called on the government to provide ‘clarity on future support [for energy bills] before end of year, with focus on high energy users, SMEs and incentives to boost energy efficiency…’ Labour issues: UKHospitality has launched its ‘Hospitality Guide to Recruiting Workers Aged 50+’ which aims to show businesses how to adapt their recruitment practices… Demand cooling or supply drying up? The latest survey by KPMG and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation has found that labour shortages are holding back recruitment… Other news: A survey in the US has found that around 77% of consumers plan to visit a restaurant over the holiday season… COMPANY NEWS: Pret A Manger has partnered with Dallas Holdings to open a network of shops in California as well as an additional site in New York. Pret kicked off its expansion in North America earlier this year with a pilot launch with A&W Canada. Gregg’s has opened its 30th outlet store as it targets a total of 50 by 2025. The outlet store enables it to minimise waste while contributing to deprived communities. Low to No Bev reports that Asahi’s alcohol-free version of its Super Dry will roll out across eight markets over the next year, starting with the UK and Ireland in January 2023, followed by Australia, New Zealand, the US, Canada, and France from March 2023. ETM Group reports revenue up to £21.6m for the year ended 27 February 2022 from £6.8m the year prior… The Inn Collection is adding the Midland Hotel in Morecambe to its estate of properties. The company says of the unit that it ‘is a site that has a unique positioning with loyal fans worldwide and it is exciting to become its custodian’. HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: On the Beach has reported full year numbers to end-September saying that revenue rose to £144.3m from £30.5m in the prior year. The company reports headline PBT of £14.1m against a loss of £18.4m. The basic EPS is 6.3p against a loss per share of 9.7p in the prior year… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. UKH has reported that the commitment by PM Rishi Sunak at yesterday’s PMQs to introduce a registration scheme to monitor short term lets represents a successful outcome for the hospitality industry. UKH says it ‘has campaigned for years for the introduction of a registration scheme in England to cover short-term lets that brings them in line with the rest of the industry, in particular on tax and health and safety standards…’ Border Force staff are to strike at airports over the Christmas holiday period. Airports impacted will include Heathrow & Gatwick. The industrial action will be on December 23, 24, 25 and 26, as well as 28, 29, 30 and 31. STR has reported that hotel demand over the Christmas period is expected to follow usual seasonal patterns for the first time in three years. Hotel demand could see a slight bump as both Christmas Day and New Year’s Day fall on a Sunday. Agent Knight Frank comments on hotel supply saying that a number of build projects have been deferred or cancelled. It says a substantial proportion of the UK hotel construction pipeline is currently on hold. Knight Frank says ‘with the increasing cost of debt and materials, this pipeline of new hotel openings is anticipated to contract further in the coming years… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Parkdean Resorts has announced that it has ‘extended its initiative to gift free holidays to military personnel and their families in 2023, opening up the offer to include beneficiaries of the Royal Air Force Benevolent Fund…’ Christie & Co has completed the sale of the former New Look store in Parliament Street, York to specialist serviced apartments owners and operators, ‘Mansley Serviced Apartments’. The development will feature 19 self-catering apartments providing 23 bedrooms, including four feature duplex apartments, whilst ancillary areas and new external spaces will be created for guests. Construction is due to commence in Q1 2023. FINANCE & MARKETS: The S&P construction PMI slipped to a three-month low at 50.4 in November against estimates of around 52.0. This matters as the construction industry is very quick to add – and shed – labour. The number is still, just, in expansionary territory… Labour says it will make the UK “the high growth start-up hub of the world.” It says that ‘these are challenging economic times’ but it adds ‘the spirit of enterprise, of creativity, of endeavour are as present in Britain today as they ever have been.’ Sterling stronger at $1.2187 and €1.1604. Oil down at $77.58. UK 10yr gilt yield down 4bps at 3.05%. World markets broadly lower yesterday and London set to open down around 3pts as at 6.30am. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. |
|
