Langton Capital – 2022-12-14 – Inflation, strikes, Hawksmoor, TUI, consumer squeeze, labour etc.:
Inflation, strikes, Hawksmoor, TUI, consumer squeeze, labour etc.:A DAY IN THE LIFE: My desk at home has picked up an annoying creaky groan that sounds like the aliens in Galaxy Quest. A sad and questioning kind of oh! And that was amusing for the first 500 times I heard it but now, another few thousand more times down the road, it’s become a bit of a pain so here’s a question for you, how on earth do you oil a desk? Although that’s maybe rhetorical as I could employed the ‘crushed box of tea-bags in the supermarket’ and just swap it with the one that our youngest uses to do her homework and job done, who’s to be any the wiser? On to the news: LANGTON EMAIL: The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories (after the ellipses) are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade. Prices for the Premium at time of writing are £345 for one subscription, £595 for multiple, both plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option HERE https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=87YUG2Z5W7PSN UK INFLATION DATA: Headline: • The ONS this morning has released UK CPI and RPI data for November. In headline terms, the ONS reports that the CPI fell from 11.1% in October to 10.7% in November. Prices rose by 0.4% in November (having risen by 0.7% in October)… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Squeeze on consumers: The Bank of England’s latest Financial Stability Report claims that there will be ‘significant pressure’ placed on the ability of households to meet their debts. The Bank expects an average increase in mortgage payments of £250 to £1,000 per month on average by the end of 2025. This represents 17% of the average pre-tax income, up from the current 12%. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. The Telegraph reports that ‘shoplifting cases have spiked by 16pc in the past three months as cost of living drives more thieves to target supermarkets.’ It says ‘Tesco and Sainsbury’s were the most popular target for thieves, accounting for two-fifths of cases overall.’ Labour issues: S&P Markit points to a cooling in the UK labour market as the number of people placed into permanent jobs fell sharply for a second successive month in November… Transport disruption: Michael Kill, CEO of the NTIA, has said that the ongoing strikes have ‘overshadowed the first Christmas period we have had to celebrate with some normality in over 3 years…’ Energy prices: The Federation of Small Businesses has warned that ending government energy support at the end of March may cause tens of thousands of small firms to close or downsize. Some 24% of smaller firms plan to close, downsize or restructure if energy relief comes to a stop. This rises to 42% of firms in the accommodation and food sector… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Other news: CGA has reported that ‘like-for-like sales at Britain’s leading managed pub, bar and restaurant groups in November were up by 3.7% from the same month in 2021…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. UKHospitality Cymru calls the Welsh Tourist Tax the ‘wrong tax at the wrong time’… COMPANY NEWS: Per MCA, The Azzurri Group’s Coco di Mama brand is set to focus on its retail offering, now exclusively in 50 Sainsbury’s stores in London following the pandemic. Commercial brand director Sara McKennedy said ‘We’ll work on a full retail product range once we’ve done retail expansion…we want it to include our USP of pasta.’ The chain is also trialling a pasta counter on the M6 in partnership with Roadchef. Clays, the indoor clay shooting meets bar concept, has received investment from Imbiba as it opens its second location today in Canary Wharf’s West India Quay. Clays plans to open another 3 sites next year with further expansion planned into other territories. The bar offers a 90-minute shooting experience for groups of up to 20 people. Brewery Toast Ale is reported to have raised more than £2m for expansion. Yum Brands held its annual investor day in New York City yesterday. Attendees speak of a confident and upbeat presentation’ Dallas-based private equity firm CenterOak Partners has completed the sale of Wetzel’s Pretzels to MTY Franchising USA, a wholly owned subsidiary of MTY Food Group, for $207m in cash. Wetzel’s is the second largest US franchisor and owner of quick service restaurants operating in the soft pretzel category. HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: TUI Group has reported full year numbers to end-September saying that revenue rost to €16.5bn from €4.7bn in the prior year with underlying group EBIT of €409m vs a loss in the prior year of €2.1bn… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. An American Express poll has found that 61% of people have already begun planning their overseas trip for 2023… ACI Europe figures show that October airport traffic was still 12% lower than October 2019, despite being 40% up YoY… Travelodge has opened its 596th hotel and its third new-build budget luxe hotel in the heart of Wimbledon. This hotel is also the company’s sixth new hotel opening this year and its third in London. FINANCE & MARKETS: Inflation in the US as measured by the CPI was 7.1% in the year to November, slightly below estimates of around 7.3% and down from the 7.7% in the month to October. Prices rose by only 0.1% in the month of November itself… Yesterday’s wage and employment data has attracted comment. The CBI says ‘the first signs of over-50s returning to work will be hugely welcomed by businesses looking to hire…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Consumer squeeze. Times Money has suggested that 35,000 borrowers could fall into negative equity by August 2023. Sterling mixed (though up strongly vs dollar) at $1.2357 and €1.1624. Oil up at $80.32. UK 10yr gilt yield up 10bps at 3.30%. World markets better yesterday. London set to open up around 1pt as at 6.30am. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. 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