Tracker, inbound tourism, energy costs, labour, Carlsberg, bank rates etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Working from home up in York this week, thank you RMT, we noticed a Redwing in the garden – and then several Redwings – amongst the thrushes, blackbirds, pigeons, pheasants and indeed foxes and roe deer that are eating our frozen, thawed, refrozen and now presumably alcoholic, windfall apples.

I didn’t know they were Redwings until I looked them up and, seeing that there are only 50 breeding pairs in the UK, I immediately thought that a) most of them were in our garden and b) I was clearly the new God of Twitchers and that c) there must be some money in it for us somewhere.

Actually, I thought of c) first but, on reading the entry for Redwings a little more carefully, it continued to say that there would be a million or so migratory visitors in the winter, again, most of them in our garden, and it says they will join other thrushes and blackbirds in eating whatever’s on the floor in orchards and then hawthorn berries and finally random bugs and slimy creatures.

Which is exactly what they are doing and to all of which, mushy, boozy fruit, slugs and other insects, they are wholeheartedly welcome.

Anyway, all that ballyhoo about nuclear fusion in the news is allowing me to pronounce the word nuclear as new-cue-lair on a regular basis just to see if I can get a reaction. Friday has almost hove into view so on to the news:

LANGTON EMAIL:

The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories (after the ellipses) are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade.

Prices for the Premium at time of writing are £345 for one subscription, £595 for multiple, both plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option HERE

https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=87YUG2Z5W7PSN

HOSPITALITY SALES TRACKER

Summary: The latest CGA Coffer Tracker (for November) reports that hospitality’s on-trade sales were up by 3.7% year-on-year in the month. This is positive but way below the rate of inflation (of 10.7%) for that month. The Tracker collects data from ’79 leading companies’. List available on request.

It adds that sales were ‘also ahead of pre-pandemic comparatives for the 10th month in a row, recording like-for-like growth of 5.0% on November 2019.’ It adds that ‘with the Consumer Price Index now showing inflation of more than 11% in the last 12 months alone, hospitality’s sales are significantly down in real terms.’

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out.

PRIVATE COMPANY ACCOUNTS – UNDERDOG (TRADING AS HAWKSMOOR):

Introduction: Underdog Group Limited (which trades as Hawksmoor) has reported full year numbers to end-December 2021 to Companies House. Unsurprisingly, the company has reported a sharp upturn in revenues. But it is still making losses.

Headline numbers: Underdog reports revenues up from £20.5m in the year to December 2020 to £35.7m. The group says that ‘underlying EBITDA’ was up from £356k to £2.9m. Underlying EBITDA is after adding back £2.0m of pre-opening costs. Further down the P&L, the company reports a loss before tax of £2.3m, down on the loss of £4.4m in the prior year.

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out.

PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Inbound tourism.

VisitBritain yesterday published its inbound tourism forecast for 2023 with ‘continued strong recovery predicted in overseas visitor spending.’ The body says that ‘spending by inbound visitors is predicted to grow faster than visitor volume, with higher spending also per trip.’ VisitBritain says that the number of overseas visits to the UK should rise to 35.1m from 29.7m in 2022. The low, in 2021, was around 6.3m with some 40.9m arriving in the pre-Covid year of 2019. Spend should rise to £29.5bn from £25.9bn this year. Spend troughed at £5.4bn in 2021. The spend next year should exceed the previous peak of £28.4bn, achieved in 2019…

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out.

Energy support:

The FT reports that chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, is looking at prolonging state aid for all companies.

The Caterer meanwhile reports that ‘hospitality businesses are still being refused energy contracts and face huge rises in their bills despite promised government support.’ It says that operators have said they ‘were still being hit with extra charges and that it was unclear how discounts would be applied to their bills, making it impossible for them to budget for next year…’

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out.

Labour issues:

UK Hospitality’s latest Future Shock report shows that 60% of business leaders are no longer confident about recruitment, with labour shortages leading to 32% of businesses being forced to reduce their opening hours and 13% reducing opening days. UKHospitality’s ‘two phase’ approach would see changes to the immigration system and reforms to the Apprenticeship Levy.

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out.

Cost of living crisis:

Consumers are continuing to feel the cost of living crisis bite as data from Ocasa shows  the average rent price has increased by 10.8%  to £1,175 since last Christmas across the UK. Tenants are being hit hardest in London where rent has increased by 14.8% which means rent has grown from £1,752 per month to £2,011…

Price and cost increases.

Interesting to see the focus of much attention was on the contribution to CPI caused by the 16.5% increase in food prices (not helpful to hospitality) and the 10.2% increase in prices charged to consumers by restaurant and hotel companies…

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out.

UK Hospitality CEO Kate Nicholls commented on the latest inflation figures, saying ‘In particular, energy, food and drink costs continue to rise and will be taking up a significant proportion of business spend. It’s crucial that the hospitality sector is included in future energy support to help businesses survive and ensure they can keep prices down for customers.’

Corporate failures:

The Insolvency Service has published monthly numbers for November saying that there was a total of 2,029 registered company insolvencies across England and Wales in the month. There were 1,595 creditors voluntary liquidations (up 5% on the same month last year and 50% higher than in November 2019…

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out.

Other news:

Plastics. Thérèse Coffey, the environment secretary, is poised to unveil plans to phase out single-use plastic items including cutlery, plates and polystyrene cups in England following a consultation.

Branding. The Lumina Intelligence Omnichannel Foodservice Report 2022 has found that consumers expect restaurant-branded products in supermarkets to be of higher quality and hence worthy of a price premium. The research further indicates 40% of consumers have visited a restaurant after trying the brand’s products from a grocery store, while 28% have bought a branded product after trying it in a restaurant.

Manchester Chamber of Commerce has said that the World Cup, Black Friday and a buoyant construction sector have helped mitigate the effects of inflation, Brexit and declining confidence. It says ‘inflation, higher food prices and mortgage payments have squeezed household budgets.’

COMPANY NEWS:

The Carlsberg Group has announced it is to buy Waterloo Brewing for cash consideration of CAD 4.00 per share or a total equity value of approximately CAD 144 million in aggregate. It says ‘the acquisition is expected to strengthen the Carlsberg Group’s market position in Canada with local production and Waterloo Brewing’s brands, and to deliver significant supply chain and revenue synergies….’

Tim Horton’s has opened a new restaurant and drive-thru in Belfast this week.

The world’s third largest pizza chain in the world, Little Caesars, is to open its first franchises in the UK, with locations in Derby (this month) and also in London and Liverpool in early 2023.

Hospitality tech company Mews is reported to have closed a $185 Million fundraising round.

Per MCA, Pret A Manger MD Guy Meakin has said the business is ‘not forecasting growth from here on in’ in the capital and that instead ‘there are so many more opportunities outside London for a brand like Pret to grow…’

Azzurri Group has commenced its ‘Recipe for a Better Future’ strategy, outlining 19 goals which respond to the issues that matter most to stakeholders and are aligned with the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals…

Vapiano has announced the opening of a unit in Paddington, London. This is its first new unit in London since 2018.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Brexit red tape. Abta reports that there is ‘widespread concern’ across the UK travel industry with regards to the EU’s new biometric Entry/Exit system which comes into force next May. There are fears that the process of moving passengers will slow as UK nationals will have to spend ‘several minutes’ when they first arrive after the scheme starts to provide their biometric data, instead of the 30 seconds it currently takes to pass through the border.

Trains. The Transport Select Committee has heard that people are opting to drive due to train disruption, with a ‘toxic combination’ of issues leading to ‘unstable’ rail services in northern England.

The RMT union has called off planned strikes by its members working for Mitie and working on Eurostar for later this week. Members will consider a pay offer. Further strikes are planned for next week.

The UK is to ease some rules on liquids and items such as laptops in airport hand luggage.

Dalata Hotel Group has said that its second half has started well after seeing a strong recovery in H1. Dalata says corporate bookings picked up and, commenting on the wider market, it says ‘supply in Ireland remains constrained due to rooms in use for government related business, primarily the provision of emergency accommodation for refugees. The timing and degree to which these rooms will return to the market remains uncertain…’

OTHER LEISURE:

The National Audit Office claims that the BBC is struggling to compete with Netflix because it cannot afford the salaries of tech workers required to create online services…

US House of Representatives and Senate members have spoken out against TikTok, in what they perceive as a threat to national security…

Elon Musk has sold another 22 million shares in Tesla, worth $3.58bn.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Both the Bank of England and the ECB will opine on interest rates later today.

The US Federal Reserve yesterday raised interest rates by a further 50bps. This moved the benchmark rate to 4.25% to 4.50%, the highest rate in 15 years. The 50bp rise was smaller than the run of 75bp rises made earlier this year. Forecasts suggest that US rates may be above 5% a year from now. The Bank of England and the ECB will both comment later today.

Commenting on yesterday’s CPI numbers, the CBI says ‘the fall in inflation last month supports our view that we’ve likely passed its peak…’

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out.

The BCC agrees that inflation has passed its peak. It says, however, that ‘our research shows that inflation remains by far and away the number one concern for businesses. Even if the rate of increase starts to slow, the damage to business confidence has been significant…’

The Telegraph says house prices are now at their least affordable since the Victorian era.

The latest House Price Index from the ONS reports that house prices have risen by 12.6% in the year to October. It says London prices rose least rapidly.

Sterling higher at $1.2385 and €1.1627. Oil up at $82.13. UK 10yr gilt yield up 2bps at 3.32%. World markets down yesterday and London set to open down around 14pts as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out.