C&C, 888, WTB conference call, breweries, GDP numbers, labour etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I was looking the other day at the little tub of paper clips on my desk and I’d swear I’ve had some of the little blighters for a couple of decades or more.

The chunky steel ones are from our time in Geneva pre Millennium and the colourful ones are from when we set up this office and splurged a hundred quid or so on stationery, most of which is still gathering dust on the shelves around me and in various drawers.

But getting back to paper clips, the above prompted the question, do they ever wear out?

I mean the answer, in a literal sense, is certainly yes, but if 99.9% are absent-mindedly bent out of shape during phone calls or are bent straight and used to poke a hole in something, then the percentage that get to die of old age must be vanishingly small.

And those that do will weaken imperceptibly with each use but, if some to my certain knowledge are already twenty years old and counting, it’s likely that they’ll outlast me and, to all intents and purposes, that approximates to infinity.

Anyway, it’s Friday and the weekend is upon us. Have a good one and let’s move on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Breweries:

The Society of independent Brewers has launched a new UK brewery tracker ‘setting out the definitive number of actively trading breweries in 10 areas of the UK.’ The Tracker ‘shows the National total number of active brewers as 1828 as of the first January 2023. This comes after a tough 2022 for the industry, where brewery closures are estimated to have almost doubled those of new openings….’

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Heating help:

The MA quotes Black Sheep Brewery CEO Charlene Lyons as saying that the Government’s new energy support package is “brutal”. She says it will be ‘a really tough pill to swallow because you’ve got the brewery that loosely benefits, but there’s no point having a brewery firing on all cylinders if you haven’t got the capacity to sell beer because the pubs can’t afford to open because they can’t afford their energy bill.’

Food price inflation: Tesco CEO Ken Murphy says he ‘thinks and hopes’ food inflation will start to ease in the second half of the year. The supermarket reported sales up 7.2% YoY in the six weeks to 7 January.

Drink spiking. Licensing solicitor John Gaunt reports that the government has decided not to create a standalone offence for drinks/needle spiking.

A report by Bizimply suggest that hospitality staff are working longer hours in response to recruitment problems…

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COMPANY NEWS:

C&C Group plc has updated on trading for the Christmas period saying that ‘as outlined in H1 FY2023 results, our outlook for H2 noted a potential significant impact from the continuing cost of living pressures facing consumers.’ It says that ‘despite year-on-year net revenue growth of c.20% in the key trading month of December 2022, we now expect the Group’s full year operating profit range for FY2023 to be €84-88m…’

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Brewdog CEO James Watt has tweeted ‘we are building plans to open 100 BrewDog Bars in India.’

Shake Shack has announced it is to open its 12th site in the UK on Oxford Street on Friday 27 January.

Dishoom is the only hospitality company to retain its position in the Glassdoor Best Places to Work in the UK top 50 list, coming in at 40th place.

The Inn Collection Group reports LfLs up 20% over the festive period, driven by high occupancy rates of 82%. The company has added eight properties to its portfolio following The Harris Family Trusts acquisition in February 2022.

Arc Inspirations is set to open a Manahatta in Sheffield next month, located in the heart of the city. The group currently operates 18 premium bars across the North of England, under the brands of Banyan Bar & Kitchen, BOX and Manahatta.

Per the MCA, Karen Forrester has stepped down as CEO of Individual Restaurants and will be replaced by Andrew Garton, the former TGI Fridays boss. Individual Restaurants has around 33 restaurants, with 18 trading under Piccolino, six Restaurant Bar & Grills, four Riva Blue sites, and three under Piccolo.

Oregon-based drive-thru coffee chain Dutch Bros opened 133 new stores in 2022 as it continues its drive to operate 1,000 US outlets by 2025. Dutch Bros now has 671 outlets across the US and is targeting 150 openings in 2023. Dutch Bros is the fourth largest coffee-focused branded coffee chain in the US, behind Starbucks, Dunkin’ and Tim Hortons.

WHITBREAD – Q3 CONFERENCE CALL:

Following its Q3 update on trading, Whitbread hosted a conference call for analysts and our comments thereon are set out below.

Current trading: See also comments in earlier Whitbread Flash Note. Accommodation sales are up 36% vs pre-pandemic. F&B is still below but the co is ‘working hard’ to get this back to record levels. Outperformance? Yes, co is taking share from franchised operators and independents. Micro markets. There isn’t an overall uniform performance. London is the highest rate market. Occupancy is around 85% across the group as a whole. How confident can you be in retaining this? There are unknowns but lead indicators give no cause for concern. The group is off OTAs. Inbound is back but 90% of business is still domestic.

Q&A: Outlook. Details as to what the optimism is based on. Co is ‘quite positive’. No lead indicators ‘are showing any weakness…

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HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Passport application fees are set to rise on 2 February, with adult prices going from £75.50 to £82.50 & kids from  £49 to £53.50. The government said it will be the first time in five years that the cost of applying for a passport has increased and that it does not make any profit from the cost of passport applications.

Leeds Bradford Airport (LBA) is looking to recruit up to 100 new workers, holding two job fairs in January.

Clia data shows that 72% of those who have never cruised before are open to cruising, up from 71% in 2019…

ForwardKeys reports that China’s relaxation of Covid-19 travel restrictions has triggered a surge in domestic and international flight bookings, reaching 50% of the 2019 level in the final week of the year…

London Heathrow airport has said that the reintroduction of Covid-19 testing rules for visitors from China could “set back” the recovery in volumes…

HotelHub reports that the recovery in hotel bookings in Europe slowed inQ4. It says Q3 was only 1% behind 2019 whilst Q4 slipped to 3.5% behind…

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OTHER LEISURE:

888 Holdings has updated on trading for its 12 months ending 31 December 2022, saying that [with Wm Hill pro forma in for both periods] revenue in Q4 was down 3% at £445m and revenue in the year was also down 3% at £1.85bn. The company says trading was nonetheless in line with expectations.

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Disney shareholder Nelson Peltz has accused the company of raising ticket prices to customers too aggressively. Peltz says ‘Disney may believe that price increases and ‘nickel-and-diming’ of cast members and other costs is good for the bottom line. However, we suspect it is short-term thinking that puts the brand value and long-term health of the business at risk.’

Apple CEO Tim Cook is to take a 40% pay cut, reportedly at his own request.

National league football club Scunthorpe United have been served with a winding-up petition from HMRC. A takeover that appeared to be nearing completion last month has yet to materialise.

Elon Musk has earned the Guinness World Record for the largest ever loss of personal wealth, falling by £153bn since November 2021, according to a Forbes estimate. The decline was largely due to the poor performance of Musk’s Tesla stock.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The ONS has reported that ‘monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in November 2022, following growth of 0.5% (unrevised from our previous publication) in October 2022.’ It says ‘looking at the broader picture, GDP fell by 0.3% in the three months to November 2022.,,’

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Commenting on the above, the CBI says ‘while the economy performed better than expected in November, the data can’t mask the underlining problems in the UK economy. High inflation is severely impacting household budgets and businesses are facing intense cost pressures. As a result, consumer spending and investment plans are weakening…’

The BCC says ‘today’s GDP figures for November provide further evidence that UK economic growth is heading in the wrong direction, despite this period normally being among the busiest for the retail sector…’

Sterling mixed at $1.218 and €1.1237. Oil up at $83.65. UK 10yr gilt yield lower at 3.34%. World markets better yesterday and London set to open up around 2pts as at 6.30am.

The US Labour Dept has said that US inflation fell from 7.1% in the year to November to 6.5% in the 12 months to December. The figure was in line with expectations.

City AM points out that ‘City traders’ believe the Bank of England’s current round of interest rate hikes will top out at lower levels than feared in Q3 and in most of Q4 last year. The jettisoning of Liz Truss and all of her policies and ideas has much to do with this shift.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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