Langton Capital – 2023-01-17 – Consumer, labour market, DGE, RBG, DPP, Oakman, Naked Wines etc.:
Consumer, labour market, DGE, RBG, DPP, Oakman, Naked Wines etc.:A DAY IN THE LIFE: I polished some shoes over the weekend for the first time in quite a while and they were brown. But, whilst ‘black’ is arguably an absolute colour, brown isn’t and, as I soon found out, there’s quite a difference between ‘mid-tan’ and ‘light-tan’ and it simply isn’t an option to dab a bit of polish on as it looks as though you’ve splodged bacon grease on whatever spot you’ve touched up and it will last longer. And nor is it an option to do one shoe and not the other because, if you do, you’ll spend most of the rest of the next day trying to stand with one leg in the sun and the other in shadow in order not to look like too much of a jerk. Or a shoe-cleaning novice. Either that or just come out at night so lesson learned, the only thing worse than putting on the wrong shade of brown is trying to use Dubbin. Because that was a real disaster. On to the news: LANGTON EMAIL: The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories (after the ellipses) are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade. Prices for the Premium at time of writing are £345 for one subscription, £595 for multiple, both plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option HERE https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=87YUG2Z5W7PSN PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Trading & footfall: Lumina’s Intelligence Operator Data Index Quarterly Report forecasts the UK eating out market to have reached £94bn in value in 2022… Springboard reports footfall up 3.0% YoY for the week ending 14 January, but -0.2% compared to pre pandemic levels… The consumer: Barclays has suggested that hard-pressed consumers are taking to ‘re-gifting’ unwanted presents… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. The market: Future Foodservice’s Changing Landscape of the UK Hospitality/Foodservice Market’ report suggests that despite economic headwinds, the UK hospitality & foodservice market should grow by 2.3% in 2023… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Labour market stats. The ONS has this morning updated on average earnings & employment. It says ‘growth in average total pay (including bonuses) and regular pay (excluding bonuses) among employees was the same at 6.4% in September to November 2022; for regular pay this is the strongest growth rate seen outside of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic period….’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Younger consumers: Foodservice analyst Peter Backman reports that ‘the number of 16 to 24 year olds who don’t drink has risen by 17% since the start of the pandemic.’ He adds ‘over 60% of young people said they haven’t drunk alcohol in 2021, up from just over 30% twenty years ago.’ Mr Backman suggests that as the current 15-24 demographic gets older, they ‘appear to be likely to become increasingly teetotal, not less…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Other news: Brewers: SIBA has called on Chancellor Hunt to expand the draught duty relief to 20%, with CEO Andy Slee saying ‘This would represent a real investment by the Government in SME businesses in communities all across the UK and provide a shot in the arm for a struggling hospitality sector…’ Utility costs: UKHospitality is urging Ofgem to penalise all examples of bad practice by energy suppliers and to compel companies to renegotiate the worst deals. UKHospitality CEO Kate Nicholls said ‘If energy suppliers are allowed to continue to conduct themselves in such an unfair manner, without fear of reprisal, businesses will fail across the sector and across the country as a result.’ The Pubs Code Adjudicator has launched its Annual Tied Tenants Survey in order to provide research on tenants’ pub companies and the PCA across a number of areas. Consumer demographics. Oxfam reports that 63% of the total new wealth in the world has gone to the richest 1%… Inflation: The Telegraph reports that Heinz is raising its prices for the second time in less than a year… COMPANY NEWS: Diageo announces it is to buy Don Papa Rum, a super-premium, dark rum from the Philippines. The initial payment is €260 million with a further potential consideration of up to €177.5 million through to 2028 subject to performance… Revolution Bars Group. Caution & reduced expectations for the full year. The group has updated on trading for the 26 weeks ended 31 December 2022 saying ‘in the 5 weeks to 31 December 2022 LFL sales for the group compared to the same period in 2021 were up 17.3%, with strong corporate party bookings reflecting a return of corporate guest confidence. The comparative period in these numbers was, however, affected by Omicron. Furthermore, pre booked party revenue in the Christmas Trading Period, an indicator of corporate confidence, was up 10.3% vs 2019 representing an all time LFL sales record for the Group.’ The company adds that walk-in trade was down… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Oakman Group has updated on trading for the half year to 1 Jan saying that total sales were up 41.5% on the prior year at £36.2m with LfL sales vs 2019 up by 9.8%. the company says that VAT adjusted sales were up 17.5% on last year. Oakman says ‘December sales were particularly strong with a record period of £8.2m…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. DP Poland has updated for the full year ended 31 December 2022. CEO Nils Gornall comments ‘2022 was another year of transformation for DP Poland, entering a new territory in Poland, completing the rebrand of all Dominion stores and strengthening both the Board and the Executive management team.’ The CEO says ‘average delivery times in H2 2022 were five minutes lower than in H2 2021, delivering a higher quality experience to our customers and helping to drive higher customer retention rates. Three stores also averaged less than 10 minute delivery times over a week, setting new records for our business.’ He says ‘these efforts have resulted in consecutive record sales weeks being achieved in 8 weeks in H2 2022. Like for like sales increased in Poland by 21%, whilst total system sales were up 20%….’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. The Group expects to continue store openings in 2023 and to increase its share of sub-franchised business vs corporate stores. Brewpub operator Brewhouse & Kitchen has announced that it ‘has added to its nationwide portfolio of freeholds with the acquisition of a stunning Grade II listed building in Duke St, Chelmsford, formerly known as the Anne Knight building.’ The group says ‘renovation starts immediately to add Brewhouse & Kitchen’s ubiquitous copper microbrewery which will serve the brewpub with hyper-local, fresh, unpasteurised, vegan-friendly, range of craft beers, joining an impressive list of guest craft beers, interesting gins, wines, whiskies, and a creative beer-based food menu…’ Naked Wines has updated on the three months’ trading to 26 December saying that ‘solid holiday trading enables increased profit guidance.’ There is caution on the outlook. It adds that ‘medium term conditions remain challenging…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Imbiba has announced the first close of its new £90m fund at around £70m following significant investment from the British Business Bank alongside other investors including Asahi UK… Gaucho has announced plans for its first North East steakhouse in Newcastle, set to open in March. The Argentinian steakhouse brand now has sites in Edinburgh, Leeds, Birmingham and Manchester, among others. Airship, the data-driven customer marketing specialist for hospitality, has developed new functionality with Fydelia that is ‘set to increase the opt-in percentage from WiFi users’. Airship says ‘by using data we already hold about a guest, this integration with Fydelia not only provides better User Experience, but it also makes marketing sense, and will ultimately increase the number of contactable guests for marketeers.’ Gordon Ramsay’s Savoy Grill is in the news for charging £8 for a portion of chips. Kettle Foods reports sales up 31.4% to £101m for the year ended 31 March 2022, driven by bolt-on acquisitions and increased own-label demand. HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: Travel Weekly reports that Fred Olsen Travel has recorded record income levels in the first full week of the year. It says ‘the 17-branch agency, which is the general sales agent for Star Clippers, described the performance as “particularly exciting” as its turn-of-year marketing did not launch until January 14…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. RSM UK reports that more families and older people are driving a bounce back in post-pandemic holiday travel, with 38% planning to take a foreign holiday this year, up from 30% in 2022. Families were the most likely group to travel in 2023, with 75% saying they would go on holiday this year. Manchester Airports Group reports that it handled 3.7 million passengers last month, 90% of pre-pandemic levels. Stansted saw 1.8 million passengers, 93% vs pre-pandemic and Manchester airport handled 1.7 million travellers, which equated to 90%. Aircraft lessor Avolon has suggested that global air traffic volumes could return to pre-pandemic levels as soon as June this year now that China is opening up. OTHER LEISURE: Mastercard has suggested that younger consumers are more likely to make their music choices based on social media recommendations. Perhaps that is unsurprising. Mastercard says 56% of those aged 16-24 found their favourite music online. FINANCE & MARKETS: Rightmove has suggested that demand for houses is picking up. It says house prices are up 0.9% since December. The Nationwide & the Halifax Building Society will comment later in the month… Bloomberg reports that demand for buying office space in London fell sharply in Q4 last year. It says that less than £400 million worth of deals were transacted compared with the c£6.4 billion of deals that were recorded in Q1. The Bank of England says that there is still a “hangover effect” from the disastrous mini-Budget and financial policies that the Liz Truss government attempted to adopt. Sterling weaker at $1.22 and €1.1265. Oil higher at $84.79. UK 10yr gilt yield up 4bps at 3.39%. World markets better yesterday. London set to open down around 2pts as at 6.30am. For labour market stats, see Pubs & Restaurants. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. |
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