Langton Capital – 2023-01-20 – Deliveroo, consumer confidence, closures, London, DPP, flights & other:
Deliveroo, consumer confidence, closures, London, DPP, flights & other:A DAY IN THE LIFE: Well, it’s Friday. It’s been a big week for results & other announcements and we need a bit of a breather. On to the news: LANGTON EMAIL: The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories (after the ellipses) are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade. Prices for the Premium at time of writing are £345 for one subscription, £595 for multiple, both plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option HERE https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=87YUG2Z5W7PSN DELIVEROO – Q4 CONFERENCE CALL: Following the release of its Q4 trading update, Deliveroo hosted a conference call for analysts and our comments thereon are set out below: Headline numbers: See also earlier email. The company ran through the key points in the RNS. It said it had made a major move towards profitability. The company ‘continued to take market share in its major geographies’. The company has ‘grown in size very materially over the last three years’. The coming quarter could be tough. But we ‘are at an early stage of the growth of our business’. Order numbers down 2% in Q4 but prices up 8%. There has been a currency tailwind due to Sterling weakness vs Q4 last year. Co has added 6,000 restaurants and 1,000 grocery sites. Re profitability, co was broadly break-even on EBITDA in H2. And better than that if Australia & The Netherlands are… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Consumer confidence: The closely-watched UK consumer conference measure from GfK has been produced for January showing that confidence slipped three points to minus 45. GfK says that four measures were down, and one was up, in comparison to the December 16th announcement…. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Market closures: The latest Hospitality Market Monitor from Alix Partners and CGA by Nielsen has reported that the energy crisis and cost spiral are driving hospitality closures above the levels seen in the Covid-hit year of 2021. It says there were a net 1,600 premises that closed in Q4 2022 ‘as cost pressures mount’. It adds that small businesses and independents were bearing the brunt of closures… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. London trading: Amy Lamé, London’s Night Czar, has called for urgent Government support for the capital’s high streets after 6pm as nightlife industries have suffered greatly first from the pandemic, and now from the cost of living crisis. Lamé called for cuts in VAT for hospitality businesses, extending the 50 per cent business rate relief for retail, culture, leisure, and hospitality sectors for a further year and greater support for SME’s with energy costs… Labour costs & availability: Aldi is increasing its pay rates for more than 7,000 warehouse workers from 1 February, with warehouse selectors set to receive a new minimum rate of £13.18 an hour – up from £11.48 in January 2022. Train strikes: The Rail Delivery Group has made a fresh pay offer to rail workers. Many in the hospitality industry will be hoping that they accept it… Other news: Hospitality stocks have been attracting broker attention with one yesterday marking several of the sector’s larger operators as ‘buys’. There will be a turn in fundamentals at some point. The timing is, however, completely unclear. The Comité Champagne has released official numbers showing that shipments from the region in 2022 totalled some 326m bottles, up around 2% on the prior year. New data from the National Restaurant Association in the US has shown that restaurant sales in December tapered off to $88.3 billion compared to November, which generated $89.2 billion… COMPANY NEWS: DP Poland has confirmed that, ‘further to the Board Changes announced on 30 December 2022, regulatory due diligence has been carried out by the Company’s Nomad and the appointment of David Wild as an Independent Non-Executive Director and Chair of the Company is effective immediately.’ Changes at Wellfound… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. The Botanist is set to open in Barnsley Town Centre on Febuary 27. Starbucks franchisee 23.5 Degrees reports sales of £75m for the year ending 31 August 2022, up from £66.7m in the prior period. The 93-site company opened 6 stores during the period and has grown its opening pipeline to 50 stores. It plans to reach 300 stores by 2027. Profit after tax was £6.3m (2021: £8.8m). Black Sheep Coffee reports LfL sales up 43% in 2022 compared to the year prior, with Q4 revenue up 25% YoY. The company currently has 53 stores across the UK, with new openings slated in Edinburgh, Newcastle and Cardiff early this year, and plans to reach 131 sites by the end of 2023. Döner Shack has signed with two multi-unit franchisees, who are set to open 20 stores within the next three years across the Midlands and Northwest London. The company plans to reach 150 restaurants in the UK over the next five years. Döner Shack launched in 2019 currently operates four locations in Leeds, Leicester, Manchester, and Glasgow, and has announced plans to make its London debut on Baker Street. Chinese coffee giant Luckin Coffee is considering expanding outside of its domestic Chinese market to locations such as Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand. HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: Both runways at Manchester airport were closed for a period early yesterday morning as heavy snowfall disrupted operations. The Met Office said Manchester is under a yellow weather warning with wintry showers expected to bring ‘further disruption from ice and snow’. Travel Weekly reports that Riviera Travel’s trade partners saw revenue up 25% on pre-pandemic levels as the average selling price was up 45% against that period. HVS reports that the ‘number of hotel owners using third-party operators to run their properties looks set to increase across Europe, reflecting the desire for flexibility as well as a number of other benefits.’ It says ‘the trend for third party operators (TPOs) has emerged from the US where the concept has become commonplace, with most franchised hotels from midscale upwards now being run by TPOs… OTHER LEISURE: More than 500 advertisers have paused their spending on Twitter ads, causing the social media company’s revenue to fall by 40% YoY… Deloitte reports that 11 out of the top 20 richest football clubs by revenue are from the Premier League. Champions Manchester City retained top spot, making €731m, ahead of Real Madrid with €713.8m. The top 20 clubs made €9.2bn, a 13% increase from 2020-21. A consortium led by former Warriors chief executive Jim O’Toole and businessman James Sandford is reported to have submitted an improved offer to buy Worcester Warriors, after the latter fell into administration. Netflix has reported a sharp rise in subscriber numbers in Q4 last year. The company says co-founder Reed Hastings is to step down from his role as co-chief executive of the company. FINANCE & MARKETS: Accountant PwC’s annual poll of 4,000 CEOs has suggested that Britain could lose its attraction as a place to invest if government continues flip flopping on tax. It says this erodes the ‘comfort factor with the UK’ as there has been damage done to ‘stability and confidence…’ Billionaire Sir James Dyson has said the government has a “stupid” and “short-sighted” approach to the economy and business in the UK. Perhaps channelling Liz Truss, he says growth had “become a dirty word” with Rishi Sunak as PM… The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors has said that house prices continued to fall at the end of 2022. It’s index (rises over falls) stands at minus 42 in December compared to a relatively balmy minus 26 in November… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. The ONS, whose numbers are somewhat backward-looking, has said that UK house prices slipped by 0.3% between October and November to take the annual increase down to 10.3% in November from 12.4% in the year to the prior month. Sterling mixed at $1.2377 and €1.1421. Oil higher at $86.46. UK 10yr gilt yield up 1bp at 3.32%. World markets down yesterday but Far East up in Friday trade &% London set to open up around 37pts as at 6.30am. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. 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