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Consumer confidence, sales & costs, DOM (US), CINE, Heathrow & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Walking to work this morning I couldn’t help thinking, looking at all of the hoardings, cranes and whatnot, just when will London be finished?

I know the answer is ‘never’ and that change is inevitable, if not always good but, when someone or other designs and builds the skyscraper that will define them, and then someone else knocks down the building next door, covers theirs in dust and blights the area with cement mixers, piledrivers and noise pollution for half a decade, don’t they sometimes wonder just what they did it all in the first place for?

But they look nice when they’re done.

Anyway, it’s Friday. Not had a chance to look at the weather forecast but here’s a prediction, it won’t be raining in the pub. Have a good one and let’s move on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Consumer confidence:

GfK has updated on consumer confidence in the UK in February saying that consumer confidence had a ‘surprise rebound from historic lows.’ It says that its ‘long-running Consumer Confidence Index increased seven points in February to -38. All five measures were up in comparison to the January 20th announcement….’

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Hospitality Sales:

The UKHospitality Quarterly Tracker reports revenue up 4.2% in 2022 compared to 2019, but down 13% in real terms. The Q1 Hospitality Members Survey showed that 32% of businesses were at risk of failure in the next year, as cost pressures, labour shortages and Covid-19 debt worsened financial positions.

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Retail sales:

The CBI yesterday updated on its Quarterly Distributive Trades Survey saying that ‘in the year to February, retail sales volumes were broadly unchanged following last month’s contraction.’ It does add that ‘next month, sales volumes are expected to fall again….’

Cost of living crisis, supply issues:

Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Therese Coffey has said that people should consider eating turnips rather than tomatoes. She says the government cannot control the weather in Spain. The Telegraph quotes attendees at the NFU annual conference as calling her ‘clueless’…

Costs:

The ONS has reported that the average price of a pint of draught lager rose 1.9% in the three months to January 2023…

The BBC has been tracking the cost of a small basket of 15 everyday essentials and says that the cost has gone up by £5.34 (or 34%) – from £15.79 in 2021 to £21.13 in 2023. It says ‘official figures suggest overall UK inflation may have peaked at 11.1% in October. But the rate of food price rises is still running at 16.7%….’

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Shortages:

Marks & Spencer non-executive director Justin King claims Britain only has itself and Brexit to blame for food shortages in stores. Mr King, who previously headed up Sainsbury’s for around a decade, said the food industry had been ‘significantly disrupted by Brexit’, as the sector was ‘very integrated across Europe’.

The Federation of Small Businesses has reiterated its call for the Scottish Government to either pause or pare back elements of the imminent Deposit Return Scheme…

Strikes:

Aslef has announced London Underground drivers are to strike on 15 March – budget day – in a dispute over pensions and working arrangements. Tube drivers voted by 99% in favour of the 24 hour strike, on a turnout of 77%.

Other news:

Walsall Council has rejected the idea of bringing in early morning alcohol restriction orders in the area.

COMPANY NEWS:

Bill Gates purchased €850m worth of shares in Heineken on 17 February…

Lagardère Travel Retail has acquired the master franchise rights for Costa Coffee in Poland and Latvia…

Italian coffee roaster & café chain illycaffè plans to make China its second largest market, launching e-commerce and retail operations across the country within two years….

Netherlands-based coffee group JDE Peet’s reports revenue up 16% to €8.2bn for the year ended 31 December 2022…

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Domino’s in the US has reported Q4 LfL sales growth of 0.9%, well below the rate of inflation…

Beyond Meat Inc yesterday reported Q4 numbers and forecast annual revenue slightly above estimates.

Ebay forecasts Q1 revenue between $2.46-2.50bn, beating analysts’ expectations of $2.37bn and sending shares in the company up 2%. It said it hopes that cost-conscious shoppers would be attracted towards its used and refurbished product category in the face of a looming recession.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Accor reports revenue up 80% YoY to €4,224m, and 4% ahead of pre-pandemic figures. Consolidated EBITDA for the year stood at €675m, compared with €22m in 2021…

Heathrow Airport reports  underlying pre-tax losses of £684m in 2022, down from losses of £1.3bn in 2021….

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European Camping Group, which owns Eurocamp, has said it will be Europe’s largest provider of outdoor accommodation following its €1 billion takeover of the French firm the Vacanceselect Group.

OTHER LEISURE:

Cineworld has updated on its Chapter 11 situation (and given equity holders some bad news) saying it ‘has been in discussions with its key stakeholders’ and it confirms press stories that it ‘has now received non-binding proposals from a number of potential transaction counterparties for some or all of the Group’s business…’

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Netflix has cut prices in over 30 countries in parts of Asia, Europe, Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. A company spokesman told the BBC that ‘members have never had more choices when it comes to entertainment’. Price cuts may be the response to increased competition.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

See GfK comments in Pubs & Restaurants above.

Bank of England policy-maker Catherine Mann has said that interest rates will need to rise again to dampen inflation. She says a shortage of workers and high wage demands are still likely to push up inflation.

Sterling weaker at $1.2025 and €1.1344. Oil up at $82.85. UK 10yr gilt yield down 2bps at 3.58%. World markets better yesterday and London set to open around 22pts higher.

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