Langton Capital – 2023-04-11 – Consumer spending, recent trading, Cineworld, Hollywood Bowl & other:
Consumer spending, recent trading, Cineworld, Hollywood Bowl & other:A DAY IN THE LIFE: Right, well that’s the first of a number of long weekends out the way and very nice it was too. The weather held up for the most part. At least it did until thunder storms nearly swept us from the A1079 back from Hull to York but the sector’s tills should have been singing, dogs will have been walked and a bundle of grass will surely have been cut. And the mighty Hull City, thanks for asking, had pulses racing, well, some pulses anyway, in their 4-4 draw with Sunderland at the Stadium of Light, which was followed up by a victory vs Millwall. Anyway, back to reality and shrinkflation is getting real. The Pint may still be a Pint but Twining has moved down from 100 and 160 tea-bags in their boxes to 80 and 120, so how are we going to cope. On to the news: LANGTON EMAIL: The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories (after the ellipses) are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade. Prices for the Premium are £395 for one subscription, £695 for multiple, £995 for very large subscribers, all plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option per subscriber HERE https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=87YUG2Z5W7PSN PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Barclay’s Consumer Spending Report: Summary: Barclays reports that consumer spending on plastic was up 4.0% in March this year against March 2022. This is less than half the likely rate of inflation. In mitigation, there may be some (small) swing back to cash from plastic but that does feel rather like clutching at straws…. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Recent trade: CGA by NIQ’s latest Drinks Recovery Tracker shows that average sales by value in managed venues were down by 3% YoY in the seven days to 25 March, marking the poorest performing week so far in 2023… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Easter comment: Payments company Dojo reports that the Easter bank holiday will drive a rise in sales volumes for small high street hospitality businesses, but that consumer spending will flatline… Springboard reports that Easter Friday shopper numbers were ahead of expectations (up 18.6% year on year) but they remain 11% lower than pre-pandemic levels. Consumer sentiment: The Spring Consumer Sentiment Survey by PwC has found that consumer sentiment has recovered slightly from the low seen last autumn (minus 44) but still remains in negative territory at minus 25… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. UKHospitality claims a Home Office consultation on extending the levy to apply to late night refreshment providers is based on an impact assessment and proposals from 2016 which is now out of date… Pub closures: Analysis of official Government data by real estate intelligence firm Altus Group has suggested that 153 pubs have closed for good in England & Wales in Q1 2023… Other news: Scottish Licensed Trade News reports Glasgow City Council is changing the way it structures its fees for outdoor areas, with local operators labelling the changes as a ‘nightmare’… The FT reports that some English fish and chip shops may begin to sell small sharks (known for culinary purposes as ‘rock salmon’ but otherwise called dogfish) as a result of fisheries problems post Brexit and the Ukraine war. Shepherd Neame CEO Jonathan has told the FT that ‘it’s hard to conceive of a sector that’s taken more of a hit’ as a result of Covid and subsequent events including the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He says the sector is ‘energy intensive, food intensive and people intensive.’ CGA comments on US trading saying that ‘around 7 in 10 consumers have visited restaurants and/or bars for food-led occasions in the past 2 weeks, while 2 in 5 have visited for drink-led occasions.’ The US Bureau of Labour Statistics reports that the leisure and hospitality sector added 72,000 jobs in March. COMPANY NEWS: The BBC reports that the CBI business group is in a ‘very difficult place’ as it faces several allegations of sexual misconduct. The group has essentially halted its lobbying work in order to conduct an internal investigation. CEO of Adnams Andy Wood said he had held discussions with his leadership team over potentially leaving the group. Flower Power Group, operator of Patisserie Valerie since it collapsed under its previous management, reported turnover of £25.3m for the period ended 27 March 2022, up from £10.2m the period prior…. JD Wetherspoon’s recent price rises – by around 7.5% on average – have been highlighted as leading to some odd price points. TikTok users have pointed to £4.03 for soup and 81p for a side of chili. Red Oak Taverns has purchased the freehold of the Thomas Wolsey pub in Ipswich with new pub operator Damon Jeffery taking over as the tenant. The pub is located in St Peter’s Street which accommodates a ‘vibrant number’ of hospitality venues. SushiDog plans to open 30 new sites across London after receiving investment of over £500,000. The Japanese QSR’s funding round was led by family investment office Middleton Enterprises. Lavazza reports revenue up 17.6% YoY to €2.7bn for the year to 31 December 2022 with strong retail sales growth in Poland (28%), Germany (18%) and the US (14%). The coffee roaster also posted a 1.5% and 6.1% sales recovery in Italy and France respectively, following declines in both markets in 2021. Constellation Brands has reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.98 per share for the quarter ended Feb. 28, beating analysts’ expectations of around $1.82 per share. The company has edged up its full year guidance. Craft Union has opened its 500th pub with a unit in Leicester. HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: Strikes in France created more disruption for flights and train services to and from the country on April 6. The strike was held in protest at plans by the French government to increase the pension age from 62 to 64. Figures from ACI Europe show that total passenger traffic across the continent in February was still 12% lower than pre-pandemic levels. European passenger numbers rose by 48% YoY in February, with the highest increases coming from airports in Cyprus, Malta and Austria. European commissioner for transport, Adina Ioana Valean, told the Airlines for Europe summit in Brussels that ‘We are out of the crisis, but we are not out of the woods. The good news is travel is up and likely to reach 95% of the 2019 level this summer. The bad news is this will only increase the risk of delays as the skies become more crowded.’ A spokesperson for French border control authorities has said that every booth it operates was manned “continuously” and says that the problems with delays arose on “the British side”. OTHER LEISURE: Cineworld has updated again on its Chapter 11 situation, saying that its plan of reorganisation does not ‘provide for any recovery for holders or Cineworld’s existing equity interests’. It says the plan ‘is supported by lenders holding and controlling approximately 83% of the Group’s term loans due 2025 and 2026 and revolving credit facility due 2023 and approximately 69% of the Debtors’ outstanding indebtedness under the debtor-in-possession financing facility pursuant to the restructuring support agreement entered into between the Group Chapter 11 Companies and such lenders on 2 April 2023…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Hollywood Bowl has updated on trading for the first six months of its current financial year (the period to 31 March) saying that it has seen record H1 revenues of £111.1m, up some 10.9% against the same period last year… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. FINANCE & MARKETS: The IMF has said that the global economy will grow at roughly 3% per annum over the next five years. This is the slowest pace since 1990… The US economy added 236,000 jobs in March. The jobless rate held at 3.5%. The Halifax House Price Index for March has shown that average prices rose by 0.8% in the month after a 1.2% rise in February. This takes the annual rate of growth to 1.6%… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. Sterling $1.2407 and €1.1397. Oil $84.72. UK 10yr gilt yield 3.41%. Markets strong yesterday & London set to open up around 40pts. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £395, multiple £695. Limited time offer: PayPal alternative monthly £25 + VAT per sub. Easy in, easy out. |
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