Trading, Low & No, inflation, Red Oak, BrewDog, GDP & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Driving into Newcastle for the first time in a while the other day, we noticed all of the ULEZ (ultra-low emission zone) signs and felt that we must have picked up a fine until we learnt that it only applied – for the moment at least – to commercial vehicles (right down to taxis).

Which is what it is but it does seem a little odd as the A1M goes through the centre of the town and that is by no means an underused road.

And operating a ULEZ on a motorway could lead to other urban areas bagging their five miles or road or whatever in the same way that Boss Hogg and his boys used speed traps to tax tourists.

But who’s to say, with Manchester imposing a bed-tax and various bridges pinging out fines left and right, that isn’t exactly what’s going to happen. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Current trading:

The Oxford Partnership’s latest On Trade Report concludes ‘despite all the current doom and gloom, there is some good news in that there are signs of hope as draught beer & cider sales throughout the Easter weekend surpassed those of 2022…’

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Consumer discretionary income:

There will be a hump in the number of householders looking to re-mortgage in September this year reports Bloomberg…

Meanwhile in the rental market, a shortfall of properties is causing a rise in rents reports the RICS.

Low and no-alcohol:

Seedlip, in which Diageo Distil Ventures took a ‘significant majority’ shareholding in 2019 after first investing in 2016, has reported accounts showing revenues for the year to June 2022 of £7.8m, down some 43% on the prior year. The company…

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Consumer behaviour:

PwC’s Spring 2023 Consumer Sentiment Survey has found that 38% of people said they planned to eat out less over the next three months, down from 41% in September 2022. Inflation is still the biggest factor affecting spending, impacting four in five, but as it tapers away throughout the year, consumers are optimistic the situation is improving.

Inflation:

Tesco is reported to have cut the price of milk for the first time since May 2020 as wholesale prices have eased. The price of two pints will be cut by 5p to £1.25. Milk prices are up by around 43% on average since February last year.

In the US:

The Bureau of Labour Statistics has reported that food-away-from-home prices are up 8.8% year-over-year, increasing by 0.6% on the month…

COMPANY NEWS:

Red Oak Taverns co-founder Mark Grunnell has told the MCA there ‘wasn’t very much to buy’ in terms of pub acquisitions in 2022….

BrewDog has announced it is considering adding bugs to the menu at its pubs. A partnership with edible insect brand Yum Bug could see a cricket burger added to menus….

Carlsberg Marson’s Brewing Company has signed a deal to purchase the UK rights for Kronenbourg from Heineken UK, starting from 1 June 2023. Under the agreement, Heineken UK will continue to brew and pack Kronenbourg 1664 under contract, before moving to CMBC in 2024.

Marugame Udon, whose parent company has just tabled a bid for pizza operator Franco Manca-owner Fulham Shore, is to open a new noodle restaurant at the Oracle in Reading. The 148 cover unit will feature new click-and-collect kiosks.

State of Play Hospitality, which operates Bounce, Hijingo and Flight Club USA, has reported a £11.2 loss in the year to 27 March last year.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Tripadvisor claims it stopped 1.3 million fake reviews from appearing on its platform in 2022. Its Review Transparency Report shows that 30.2 million reviews were posted globally on its site in 2022, a 20% increase since 2020.

Research by Deloitte has found that overall business travel is unlikely to return to levels seen prior to the pandemic. Deloitte said ‘European respondents expect 32% of 2023 spend to go to international trips within the continent, and 28% beyond.’

OTHER LEISURE:

Elon Musk has said that running twitter has been ‘quite painful’ and ‘a rollercoaster’, saying he would sell the company if the right person came along. Musk also confirmed Twitter will change its newly added label for the BBC’s account from ‘government funded media’ to say it is ‘publicly funded’ instead.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

UK GDP. The ONS has reported that UK GDP was unchanged in February, a shade below forecasts for 0.1% growth. Services sector output fell by 0.1%, manufacturing was down 0.2% and construction grew 2.4%…

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US CPI. The US Bureau of Labour Statistics yesterday reported that CPI inflation in the US amounted to 5.0% in the year to March, down from 6.0% in February and a peak of 9.1% in June last year…

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has said that UK banks may still have insufficient cash buffers to cope with crises if more runs such as that on Silicon Valley Bank were to happen…

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Sterling mixed at $1.2487 and €1.136. Oil higher at $87.02. UK 10yr gilt yield up 3bps at 3.57%. World markets mixed yesterday & London set to open down around 8pts as at 6.30am.

The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes have raised concerns over the possibility of a minor economic recession in the US leading to falls on the stock market. The Fed is suggesting a “mild recession” in the US economy later in the year.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors has reported that house prices, sales levels, supply and buyer demand all remained sluggish in March…

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