Insurance, trading, FUL, NGHT, asset prices, Staycity, Travelodge & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I’m sure the game theorists could plug this into a spreadsheet and come up with an answer but here are the facts:

• The dog has taken to shunning her food of a morning in the hope, often well-founded, that she’ll be offered something better later in the day.

• Human food, preferably but, in an attempt to claw this one back, we’ve been leaving her food out so as not to waste it.

• And we haven’t been giving her leftovers but this has led to a human-canine standoff and, in the hotter weather, we’ve put her bowl outside so as not to encourage flies.

• Enter the magpies who, on a couple of occasions now, have eaten all of the dog’s food whilst she’s looked on, open-mouthed with speechless indignation; so where to from here?

Do we cave and feed her caviar? Or do we stick to the 8am feed and remove the bowl thereafter? Or do we let her into the garden where she can eat magpies?

Questions, questions. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Business interruption insurance:

Oaxaca Ltd, which trades as Wahaca, has sued its insurer – QIC Europe Ltd – for allegedly failing to pay out for losses incurred when the chain shuttered sites during the COVID-19 pandemic. Wahaca said each interruption or interference to its business justified a separate claim for loss with a separate limit of £1 million….

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WFH

CEO of property company Argyll, John Drover, claims ‘We’ve had for the last six months, the highest consistent occupancy we’ve ever had, and I’ve been here since January 2000. Higher than before the pandemic, higher than before GFC.’ Drover said rates of occupancy had reached 90%, with the firm seeing a 26% uptick in clients.

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Trading:

Lumina Intelligence reports that eating out frequency fell by 7.1% in the four weeks to 14 May 2023, declining from 1.5 visits per week, in the comparable four weeks last year, to 1.4 visits. Spend remained in line with inflation at +8.9%.

Looking forward, KAM says, of the 500 adults it spoke to last week, some ‘63% of them will definitely visit a restaurant over the Summer – down 16%points vs last summer’ and ‘52% will definitely visit a pub (36% maybe)….’

Cost of living crisis:

Nationwide has increased its fixed-rate mortgage deals by up to 0.25 percentage points. Hundreds more home loan deals have been pulled by banks and building societies over the last week, while rates on new fixed mortgage deals are continuing to rise….

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Asset prices:

Interesting to note the South China Morning Post reporting that Hong Kong-based asset manager Panda Residential is seeking to raise as much as £1 billion from investors in the region ‘to bet on the recovery of the UK commercial property market….’

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Other news:

Hospitality Rising, a collaborative campaign bringing together hospitality companies, has entered its second year and is targeting education leavers to help solve the sector’s job crisis….

COMPANY NEWS:

Fulham Shore updates on bid. The Fulham Shore on Friday reported that at the Court Meeting and the General Meeting held on Friday, the requisite majority of shareholders voted in favour of the transaction to buy the company taking place…

Nightcap on Friday announced that it had agreed to purchase the assets of DC Bars Ltd, which operates the ten-strong Dirty Martini chain of cocktail bars and Tutton’s Brasserie Ltd for up to £4.65m….

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Nightcap updates on trading saying ‘the Board currently expects to report revenues that are broadly in line with current market expectations, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be below current market expectations….’

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Staycity has updated on trading saying that it ‘has seen the past 12 months of trading break the €200m turnover threshold for the first time.’ The company says ‘improved trading prompted by the re-emergence of business travel, the increasing popularity of city breaks and 12 new property openings over the past 18 months has helped the group reach record sales in the 12 months to 1st May 2023, while turnover for 2023 is on target to reach €230m….’

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The Telegraph reports that Greggs is set to expand in Cornwall in what it says is ‘a fresh assault on the home of the pasty.’

Wilko is reported to have drafted in property advisers ahead of talks with landlords. Sky says Wilko is working with CBRE.

Wine maker E&J Gallo has acquired California canned wine and spritzer brand Bev for an undisclosed sum.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Safestay reported revenues of £19.1m for the 12 months to 31 December 2022, up from £6.4m in the prior period. Average bed rate recovered to £23.63 in the year, up from £19.70, helping drive adjusted EBITDA to £5.5m from a £1.0m loss last year. Occupancy was 63%, still low compared to pre-covid levels of 77%….

Tourist tax. Cadogan CEO Hugh Seaborn has warned that the government should rethink the ‘tourist tax’ before it causes ‘irreversible damage’ to the capital. A growing number of business leaders want to see duty-free shopping reinstated, after it was axed in 2021.

Late bookings: Late travel bookings represented 46% of sales according to bookings by Advantage Travel Partnership members, as consumer trends change in the face of the cost of living crisis….

Post Office Travel Money has reported that 57% of adults and 66% of families plan an overseas holiday this year despite concerns the cost of living crisis and rising prices…

The FT reports that staycation demand remains strong. It says 44% of hotel rooms in Cumbria are booked to end August with 55% of rooms gone in Devon and Cornwall, up from 52% at this stage last year.

The Times reports that Travelodge is being primed for sale in an auction ‘that could fetch in excess of £1 billion off the back of a strong recovery in domestic travel….’

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OTHER LEISURE:

Facebook-owner Meta is reported to be planning to launch a text-based social network designed to compete with Twitter…

Sky News reports that Robey Warshaw, the advisory which employs George Osbourne as a partner, has landed a key role on the $75bn takeover of Activision Blizzard by Microsoft….

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The CBI has upgraded its UK economic forecast, with the UK now set to avoid technical recession. The economy is  expected to grow by 0.4% in 2023, firming to 1.8% in 2024….

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The CBI reports that ‘risks to our inflation forecast remain very much to the upside…

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Housebuilder Crest Nicholson has said that high interest rates and the withdrawal of government support for first-time buyers is likely to further weaken the UK housing market.

It’s being reported that Michael Gove’s “green tape” reforms in the housing sector have been partly responsible for planning permissions granted falling to a 14-year low.

New unemployment claims rose to an 18 month high last week per the US Labor Department.

Sterling up at $1.2571 and €1.17. Oil price lower at $73.77. UK 10yr gilt yield down 1bp at 4.24%. Bank of England comments a week on Thursday. Markets mixed on Friday but Far East better in Monday trading & London set to open some 32 points higher as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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