Tariffs, taxes, incomes, food service inflation, Rank, Black Sheep & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I find these days that so few things can be truly relied upon.

Big Ben only works when it works and even the councils can’t be sure to dig up the roads in March because they’ve cunningly run out of money far earlier than the normal road-digging season but one thing I can be truly certain of is that my lawnmower will break down the first time I try to use it.

And so, this year, it has come to pass.

And, as always, after having batted the resolution to have it serviced over winter conveniently to one side, I’ll shortly be on the phone to the menders – along with virtually every other person with a lawn in the North of England – to try to have it put right.

Which I really hate because the power dynamics, shall I say, will not be in my favour and the conversation will go something like this:

‘Ah, ooh,’ sucks teeth. ‘We’re very busy, Sir.’

‘Yes, I thought you would be…’

‘You should have had it serviced in October…’

‘Yes, you’re right…’

‘Or November. Or even December….’

‘Yes, I get it, what do you want, money?’

‘Let me finish, Sir, or January….’

And so it will go but, and this is the frustrating bit, I’ll have to just suck it up.

On to the news:

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10 APRIL 2025 – TARIFFS, RECESSION THREAT, INTEREST RATES:

Now you see them, now you don’t.

The situation changed yet again yesterday evening as countries above 10% tariff levels were pulled back to 10%, at least for 90 days. President Trump caved in, saying that other people were afraid but, and bearing in mind that things could change again, we consider the following: Hospitality is largely a domestic industry and will not be impacted directly by tariffs….

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Hospitality & taxation:

The BII has written to the Chancellor saying that it urges her ‘to reconsider the additional tax rises that you have now implemented on independent pubs across the UK. Our 13,000 members, independently operating pubs across the UK, were already struggling to be profitable ahead of these tax rises, with the impact of ongoing high energy costs, embedded inflation in food & drink costs, and broader business costs all rising….’

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Disposable incomes:

A number of UK mortgage lenders have now cut rates. The Bank of England next meets on 8 May but, ahead of that and in the wake of President Trump’s tariffs announcement, the Coventry Building Society, amongst others, has cut its two-year fixed rate mortgage to below 4%…

Food service price inflation:

CGA and Prestige have produced their CGA & Prestige Foodservice Price Index for February saying that there has been a ‘continued easing of inflationary pressures, with the Index remaining relatively flat in February, falling by a marginal 0.1 point from January 2025….’

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Other news: The EU has removed Bourbon from its list of planned target products for reciprocal tariffs…

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SIBA reports that 31% of young people now recognise the Indie Beer campaign. Research by YouGov, it says, ‘clearly shows is that the Indie Beer campaign is resonating with younger consumers, many of whom are drinking less but drinking better.’

COMPANY NEWS:

Black Sheep Coffee has reported that weekly sales for the week to 31 March were up ‘an incredible 9.3%’ on the prior week. It says ‘all but three UK sites experienced LfL net sales increases and a record breaking 48 sites broke their all time high records….

SSP Group has announced a strategic partnership with Popeyes UK to open a number of Popeyes units in UK travel hubs, starting with Birmingham Airport. SSP says ‘we’re really excited to launch our new partnership together at UK travel hubs, starting with the brand’s inaugural journey into UK airport restaurants at Birmingham Airport.’

Constellation Brands yesterday reported FY numbers saying that sales in financial Q4 were $2.16bn, ahead of estimates. The company also updated on the outlook for fiscal 2026 results saying that profit will be below analysts’ estimates. The company, which produces much of the beer that it sells in the US in Mexico, is expecting steep rises in prices to end-customers as a result of the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration. Shares fell around 4% in extended trading.

Brakspear has reported that it is expanding its Honeycomb Houses managed division with the acquisition of The Kings Head in Cirencester. It says that ‘the purchase follows hot on the heels of the recent acquisition of The Redesdale Arms in Moreton-in-Marsh and takes the total estate up to 12 sites.

Vintners Lanes in Greenwich has been voted the best bowling alley in the world in the 40th Annual Bowling Centre Architecture and Design Awards. The awards, which are held in Texas, held that the ‘stunning interior’ swung it for the venue….

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Jetline Travel is reported to have gone into administration after ceasing trading as an ATOL holder in March.

Strike action at Red Handling, a baggage handling company, could disrupt flights at Gatwick over the Easter Holiday….

Universal has confirmed that it is to own and operate a new theme park in Bedfordshire. Chancellor Rachel Reeves says that the site will be worth billions of pounds to the UK economy….

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London St. Pancras Highspeed suggests that demand for international rail travel from the UK could triple over the next 15 years. Such growth would imply around 35 million passengers per year leaving (or coming into) the UK by rail….

OTHER LEISURE:

Bingo and casino operator Rank has updated on trading for its Q3 to end-March saying that group revenues were up by 10.9% to £195.6m. The company reports 12.0% growth at Grosvenor Casinos and 1.9% revenue growth at its UK bingo sites…

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Playtech yesterday announced that ‘the completion of the sale of Snaitech to a subsidiary of Flutter Entertainment plc is expected to take place by the end of April 2025.’

FINANCE & MARKETS:

President Trump yesterday backed down in the face of bond market pressure and ‘paused’ the higher rate of tariffs on all countries bar China for 90 days. He says people were getting afraid….

Economists at the Richmond Federal Reserve have begun to calculate the likely price rises to be faced by US consumers as a result of President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements. They says that, as a result of where the tariffs will be levied, prices of leather goods, clothing, furniture and consumer electronics will be particularly impacted. Numbers will be up for review after President Trump’s climb-down yesterday but, as tariffs on Chinese products have risen again, the concerns remain valid.

China has announced further tariffs on US goods. A total tariff of 84% will be enforced on US goods, up from the 34% already planned. US levies on Chinese products, at least as of the time of writing, are up to 104%. The EU has announced a tariff of 25% on US goods.

India’s central bank has cut interest rates by 0.25%, partly in response to President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements.

Sterling up at $1.2856 and €1.1714. Oil higher at $64.75. UK 10 year gilt yield up 20 basis points at 4.80%. World markets down in Europe yesterday but up in the US on the Trump climb-down and higher in Asia this morning. London set to open up around 400 points as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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