AB InBev, IHG, Flutter, JD Wetherspoon, trade agreement(s) & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Hindsight, eh?

It can make you into a perfectly knowledgeable pain in the rear but, when they, whoever ‘they’ are built York, a medieval city full of stone on top of a pile of mud, didn’t they think that it might all move around a bit?

I mean fair enough, you can’t see it doing so.

And it’s butch boulder clay rather than some fluffy sandy stuff but they’re not even sure where the river was a few centuries ago, it was around here somewhere and, like the best of all mud pies with a stone on top, York is taking a few millennia to settle and, in so doing, it’s breaking all of our pipes.

Meaning that getting from A to B has been a bit challenging recently because of burst water mains. Dry weather speeds things up. But I’m sure they said that wet weather speeds things up as well and it’s best not to think what might be happening to the sewage.

Anyway, you put more bells and whistles onto a city, running water, that sort of thing, and there’s more to go wrong. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Spirits producers are hoping for great things as a result of the trade agreement reached with India. The deal, which will still see tariffs in place but at a reduced level, should come into force at some time in the next 12 months. it was hailed as a ‘landmark’ agreement by Prime Minister Sir Kier Starmer…

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Sector Work Academy Programmes are being launched in 26 areas across England. UKH says ‘the new programme trains jobseekers with hospitality skills in a working environment and provides them with both work experience and a guaranteed interview with a choice of employers. The companies, operating both nationally and locally, are working with Jobcentre Plus and local training providers.’

US wines & spirit market. Data from Sip Source reveals a sharp drop in both wine and spirits volumes and revenues in the US. Spirits volumes fell by 6.3% in Q1 with revenue down by 5.1%. Wine volumes in Q1 were down by 9.9% with revenues down by 10.5%.

Lumina Intelligence’s Operator Data Index (ODI) for Q1 2025 suggests that leading branded restaurants should manage modest outlet growth this year of 0.6% in terms of unit numbers…

COMPANY NEWS:

AB InBev has reported Q1 numbers saying that revenue rose by 1.5% to $13.628bn. It says that sales of no-alcohol beers rose by 34%. The company reports normalised EBITDA up 7.9% at $4.855bn and underlying profit of $1.606bn against $1.509bn in the same quarter last year….

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JD Wetherspoon shares yesterday rose by 6% on the release of the company’s Q3 update.

JD WETHERSPOON – Q3 CONFERENCE CALL:

Following the release of its Q3 trading update, JD Wetherspoon hosted a brief conference call for analysts and out comments thereon are set out below:

Headline numbers: Company reiterated its RNS comments and added that the weather has been good over the quarter as a whole & has helped trade. Beer gardens have been busy.

Comments on Trading: How do you define a ‘reasonable outcome’? House broker has maintained expectations at £79m PBT. Looking to next year, the broker is at £91m.

Breakdown of sales by product line?

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INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP:

Intercontinental Hotel Group has reported Q1-2025 numbers and our comments are set out below: Headline numbers: The company reports that Q1 global RevPAR rose by 3.3%, with Americas +3.5%, EMEAA +5.0% and Greater China -3.5%. The company reports that revenue ‘on a comparable basis saw Business +3%, Leisure +2% and Groups +5%.’ It says that average daily rate rose by 2.2% and occupancy was up by 0.6%pts. Re the size of the estate, IHG says that ‘gross system size growth accelerated to +7.1% YOY, +1.5% YTD.’ The company ‘opened 14.6k rooms (86 hotels) in Q1, more than double the same period last year.’

Commenting on the pipeline, IHG says that it ‘signed 25.8k rooms (158 hotels) in Q1, or 20.2k excluding the Ruby brand acquisition, compared to 17.7k in the same quarter last year; global pipeline of 334k rooms (2,265 hotels), +9.4% YOY.’ The company has undertaken $324m of 2025’s $900m share buyback programme, reducing the share count by 1.9%.

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HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Corporate booking technology provider HotelHub, which handled some 1.95m hotel bookings in Q1 has reported that, whilst the number of hotel bookings in the UK, France and Canada all rose in Q1, the US saw a drop in reservations….

However, American Express Global Business Travel reports that transaction volumes and revenue rose by 4 per cent in Q1. The company has nonetheless trimmed its estimates for full year growth as a result of economic uncertainty.

Uber yesterday reported Q1 numbers saying that Gross Bookings grew 14% year-over-year and 18% year-over-year on a constant currency basis. The company reports income from operations of $1.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.9 billion, up 35% year-over-year…

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OTHER LEISURE:

Flutter has reported Q1 numbers saying that revenue rose by 8% to $3.665bn with net income up from a loss in the prior period of $177m to a profit of $335m. The company reports adjusted EBITDA up 20% at $616m. EPS is up 51% at 159c…

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Walt Disney has announced that it plans to open its first theme park in the Middle East, in the United Arab Emirates on Abu Dhabi’s Yas Island. Disney currently has six theme parks in North America, Europe and Asia.

The SMMT has reported that Tesla sales fell by 62 per cent in the UK last month against the same month last year.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

It is very likely that the Bank of England’s MPC will announce a cut in UK base rates from 4.50% to 4.25% when it announces just after midday today. The announcement, usually at 12-noon, will be two minutes later today in order to allow the VE-Day two minutes’ silence.

S&P has reported its UK construction sector PMI saying this rose slightly from 46.4 in March to 46.6 in April. However, any number below 50.0 implies contraction…

The US central bank has held interest rates unchanged despite presidential pressure and has warned that tariff ‘uncertainty’ is part of the reason for it doing so. Fed chair Jerome Powell says that tariff flip-flopping means that it is ‘not at all clear’ what it should do next….

President Trump has alluded to an agreement between the UK and the US to reduce tariffs. The president posted a message on Truth Social saying that there will be a ‘big news conference’ today at 10am.

Sterling mixed at $1.3330 and €1.1783. Oil lower at $61.48. UK 10 year gilt yield down 5 basis points at 4.46%. World markets mixed but heading better yesterday & London set to open some 67 points higher as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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