JD Wetherspoon, state aid, city centres, Entain, Netflix etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Bit busy this morning. On to the news:

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IN TODAY’S PREMIUM EMAIL:

Here we consider the hot topics & hope to analyse as well as report. We look JD Wetherspoon’s fund raising (announced yesterday and completed today) and its implications for the company and for the sector.

JD WETHERSPOON PLACES SHARES FOR THE SECOND TIME DURING THE COVID PANDEMIC:

JD Wetherspoon Tuesday evening updated on Q1 trading and announced that it was seeking to raise around £93m via a placing of it shares. Our comments thereon are set out below:

The Placing:

• JDW has announced this morning that it has successfully placed 8.37m new shares in the company at 1120p, a discount of 5.3% to the closing share price. The placing raises approximately £93.7m for the company and the new shares represent just under 7% of the existing issued share capital of the company. There were no pre-emption rights. JDW reports that Columbia Threadneedle Investments will take 1m shares.

Headline numbers:

• JDW announces that, as indicated previously, ‘LFL sales decrease of 27.6% for the 15 weeks to 8 November 2020.’

• It says sales then slid. Comps likely became less meaningful. See Premium Email

PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Covid-19 issues:

• The BBPA has stated that 74% of wet led pubs are still waiting to receive their Christmas grant promised to them by the Prime Minister. Emma McClarkin, Chief Executive of the BBPA, said: ‘Months have passed by yet still thousands of pubs are waiting on the grants they have been promised. It is unbelievable that so many pubs are still waiting on their Christmas grants and grants for the second lockdown. Considering we are now in a third lockdown it is scandalous’.

• The consumer group Which? has found a refusal to accept cash ‘creeping into the wider UK economy’. Natalie Ceeney, who wrote a report on the issue, commented: ‘The figures show that it’s not simply the odd coffee shop going cashless, but this is creeping into the wider economy. We can’t just blame individual businesses – many are going cashless because they can’t easily bank cash takings because their local branch is closed or some distance away’.

• The CBI has called on the government to give more financial help to struggling businesses, stating that the furlough scheme and business rates relief should be extended. It has thrown its hat in the ring ahead (well ahead) of Chancellor Sunak’s March Budget, proposing some £17.9bn of spending and tax measures. That may not go down too well if Mr Sunak intends to balance the books any year with a two in it.

• The CBI says ‘all along the Treasury has been rightly focused on protecting the viability of firms in building that bridge to the other side. We just have to finish the job. Now would be a very odd time to withdraw that support.’

• The Treasury says ‘we’ve invested more than £280bn throughout the pandemic to protect millions of jobs and businesses – and extended our self-employed and furlough schemes through to April so that people have certainty that help is in place. As the Chancellor has set out, the Budget will be the moment to take decisions in the round and outline the next stages of our Plan for Jobs. That has been our priority throughout the past year and it will be the priority for the year to come.’

Other pub & restaurant news:

• KAM Media says ‘the low and no category has hit the mainstream with consumer awareness of low & no increasing significantly over the last 12 months.’ It says that ‘nearly 1-in-2 consumers have now tried a low or no alcohol variant at home.’

• MD Katy Moses says ‘there’s no escaping the fact that 2020 has been a year like no other. Clearly such circumstances are going to have a distinct impact on consumer behaviour. We are still seeing similar levels of desire from consumers to reduce the amount of alcohol they consume as we did in 2019, suggesting that as drinkers, we are increasingly becoming aware of the need to drink responsibly and that we understand the benefits associated with moderation. This is especially higher for those in the 18-34 age bracket.’

• Will city centres bounce back?

• Chief Executive of Brookfield Asset Management, Bruce Flatt has commented on his decision to delist the property arm of the group: ‘Clearly there are differing views about real estate securities. Some people think people won’t go back to the office and that retail will be done online’. The result is that real estate holdings ‘are not trading at tangible value. It’s the right thing to take it private’.

• The Guardian writes this morning that ‘pubs driven to financial ruin by the impact of the pandemic could be bought up on the cheap under plans being drawn up by JD Wetherspoon as well as by a new venture fronted by the former boss of Greene King.’

• Both above-mentioned operators have raised money in the last 48hrs to buy, perhaps, distressed assets. Former GNK boss Rooney Anand is backed to the tune of £200m by an ‘an unnamed US-based private equity firm to acquire smaller pubs and bars, City sources told Sky News, which first reported the story.’

• Deliveroo has recruited Next CEO Simon Wolfson as a director as it plans its IPO on the London market. Deliveroo, which had been heavily loss-making, has been a beneficiary from the Covid-19 pandemic. Much will be riding on how much of the windfall it has received in sales it will be able to keep going forward.

• Arcadia, parent to Topshop, is set to close a further 31 shops after entering administration in November.

• The Davis Family, owner of the ‘the world’s smallest gin bar’ Tin of Sardines in Durham has announced plans to revive the historic Sunderland site Roker Toilet Block on Pier View.

• Champagne Shipments are expected to decline 18% in 2020, a fall of 50 million bottles.

• Northern Bloc, the Leeds based ice cream specialist has secured a seven-figure sum to expand within the vegan food sector.

• Per solicitors Poppleston Allen, Trafford and Hereford have removed their existing Cumulative Impact Policy as part of their recent licensing policy consultation.

HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

• President Trump has issued a decree to remove travel restrictions between the US and the UK, Ireland, Europe’s Schengen area and Brazil, with the bans on China and Iran set to continue. However, Mr Biden’s spokesperson has indicated that the bans will continue under the new president. 

• Director general of IATA, Alexandre de Juniac, hints that vaccinations are likely to be required to fly across borders in the future. De Juniac said ‘For travel and tourism, testing is the immediate solution to re-open borders. And eventually that will transition to vaccine requirements.’ 

• Trivago acquires weekengo and weekend.com, a Dusseldorf-based start-up focused on finding travellers inspirational getaway packages.

• Royal Caribbean has agreed to sell its Azamara brand to private equity house Sycamore Partners for $201m.

• Norwegian Cruise Lines has extended the suspension of its operations until April 30, 2021. 

OTHER LEISURE:  

• Following its rejected all stock proposal to acquire Entain, MGM Resorts will not make another offer for the company. Although it will not bid, both companies will try to drive success in the US through the BetMGM joint venture.

• Changed habits, Netflix benefits at the expense of hospitality.

• The BBC questions whether Netflix will be able to hang on to the subscribers that it has signed up during the pandemic. The company now has more than 200 million paid members, up more than 30% from 2019.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

• Government minister Kwasi Kwarteng has said that border delays and the rising cost of transporting goods to Europe are “teething problems” rather than a consequence of Brexit. The EU’s Michel Barnier said last week that increased friction costs would be permanent.

• Sky reports ‘UK ports and hauliers have reported a collapse in trade since the Brexit deal was implemented on 1 January, introducing onerous new customs procedures for British companies sending goods to Europe and Northern Ireland.’

• Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng confirms that the government is considering scrapping some EU labour laws.

• Sterling a shade better at $1.3661 and €1.1246. Oil higher at $56.32. UK 10yr gilt yield unchanged at 0.29%. World markets moving better yesterday with London set to open up around 20pts.

YESTERDAY’S TWEETS:

• JDW share placing, c£93m, going on now. JDW raised money in April. Would appear this whole thing has gone on longer than they, we, all of us hoped or thought. Unlikely JDW will be the only company that has to tap shareholders twice…

• JDW says it is looking to buy freeholds in London. In addition, buy in leases & buy properties adjacent to successful pubs. News coincides with Rooney Anand’s raising £200m for similar purposes. Too early to call a feeding frenzy. But straws in the wind…?

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

• Today’s News: It’s a bit late in the reporting season for any big surprises, as the companies would have said something by now, but, even so, today’s Dixons Carphone Christmas update, the WH Smith AGM update and the Burberry Q3 update all strike quite a confident tone. The boom in Electrical sales driven by “working from home” is still benefiting Dixons Carphone, with LFL business up 11% and the highest growth in “large screen TVs, smart tech, food preparation, health & beauty and all areas of computing and gaming”. Interestingly, the key Nordics operation saw even stronger growth than the UK, at +19% and +8% respectively (over the 10 weeks to Jan 9th). Despite current store closures, Dixons Carphone expect to deliver full year profits in line with market expectations and the only reason to raise eyebrows (apart from the 40% slump in Mobile sales..) is the news that the CFO is
changing again, with the much travelled Jonny Mason off to pastures new and Bruce Marsh from Tesco UK lined up to replace him in July. There is no direct comment on profits from WH Smith or Burberry, but at Burberry LFL sales were only 9% down and gross margins were boosted by reduced discounting, whilst at poor old WH Smith sales were only 33% down in December, despite the collapse in its Travel business, which was not as bad as management had expected.

TRADING STATEMENTS & EVENTS:

Upcoming results are set out below:

• 19 Jan 21 Premier Foods Q3 update

• 20 Jan 21 JD Wetherspoon H1 update

• 20 Jan 21 WH Smith AGM update

• 21 Jan 21 Entain trading update

• 22 Jan 21 GfK Consumer Confidence numbers

• 26 Jan 21 DP Eurasia FY trading update

• 26 Jan 21 Starbucks Q1 update

• 27 Jan 21 Marston’s AGM (no update)

• 28 Jan 21 Britvic AGM

• 29 Jan 21 Hollywood Bowl AGM

• 4 Feb 21 Compass Group AGM

• 4 Feb 21 YUM Q4 & FY numbers

• 5 Feb 21 On the Beach AGM & trading update

• 11 Feb 21 Coca Cola HBC FY numbers

• 11 Feb 21 Pepsi FY numbers

• 24 Feb 21 William Hill FY numbers

• 3 Mar 21 Nichols FY numbers

• 3 Mar 21 Government Budget Statement

• 11 Mar 21 Playtech FY numbers

• 16 Mar 21 Gregg’s FY numbers

• 24 Mar 21 M&B AGM

• 18 May 21 Britvic H1 numbers

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