Hospitality jobs, R-rates, confidence, late-night market, travel etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Have you noticed that the stock photos that sometimes accompany stories about job losses, closures, cut-backs, retrenchment, administrations, stranded holidaymakers, and the like are of happy, smiling CEOs which, one would seriously hope, were taken some time before the news associated with the photo had broken?

Either that or the individuals get their kicks taking food from puppies and knocking iced creams from the hands of infants.

Which is probably not the case though, admittedly, a lot of the snaps are of perfectly coiffured US (or US-style) CEO’s, presidents & chairmen (or women, and the aforementioned rolls are often filled the same person), where one can never be quite sure.

Anyway, a pic of a boarded-up shop or a flat pint would perhaps be more appropriate but that’s enough of that. It’s Friday & we’ve made it to the end of another week. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Covid news, labour:

• Plenty more spec regarding reopening.

• S4Labour reports that ‘hospitality suffers 540,000 job losses in 2020 and is on the verge of losing a significant amount more.’ It says 20% of jobs have gone and more may well follow.

• This because the cliff-edge to which we and others have referred is a) real and b) getting nearer.

• The above seems to be positively correlated with the volume of demands being made of no10 and no11 Downing Street.

• S4Labour says ‘there are many industries that have suffered throughout 2020, but hospitality has been near uniquely placed at the forefront of every conceivable damage the pandemic and social restrictions could throw at it. That’s not to say that other sectors have not had it hard, but few will have to had to navigate the never-ending variations of restrictions and closure hospitality has.’

• Tough though it has been, we would suggest that hospitality (in the shape of pubs & restaurants) is in a less perilous position than are cruise ships, holiday companies, airlines, cinemas, events organisers and a number of other consumer-facing sub-sectors.

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Other Covid news:

• The NIESR (the National Institute for Economic & Social Research – the oldest independent economic research institute in the UK) is modelling the R rate and says that ‘the effects of lockdown were becoming apparent by mid-January.’ It says at that point, it had fallen to between 0.8 – 0.9.

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• Justice secretary Robert Buckland has said that a ‘no jab, no job’ policy may be legal for employers. This may apply only to potential new employees.

• Barclays yesterday set aside £4.8bn for potential bad debts.

• Clear Sight reports ‘consumers’ outlook on the crisis shows further significant improvement over last two weeks.’ It says ‘for only the second time since the start of the pandemic, those who believe the worst is now behind us outnumber those who fear the worst is yet to come.’

• Clear Sight says ‘the outlook is discernibly more positive among people who have received the vaccine, suggesting that provided the vaccination programme continues to advance at pace, further improvement can be expected.’

• A Bizimply Survey suggests that ‘hospitality operators expect increased safety measures such as social distancing and wearing masks to be trading requirements for the foreseeable future.’ It says ‘the majority of businesses would also welcome a vaccine passport scheme, in the form of a physical card or a simple online check, to enable them to ensure customers have been inoculated against Covid.’

• The Night Time Industries’ Association reports that 85 per cent of people working in the night time economy are considering leaving the industry and it says that 78 per cent of all employees in the sector had at some point been on furlough. It says ‘in the second half of 2020, businesses in the night time economy traded at an average of 28 per cent of their annualised pre-Covid turnover.’

• Tucked away in the recent Resolution Foundation report is the fact that almost 2 million people in the UK have not worked for more than six months.

Business confidence:

• The ICAEW reports that domestic sales across all industries look to be down in Q1 (by perhaps 2.2%), there are hopes for a return to overall sales growth of 5.2% this year.

• The ICAEW says ‘rising confidence among businesses is an encouraging sign of things to come and a predicted growth in employment is good news for people who have lost their jobs over the past year.’

• Ultimately, this will impact on demand for consumer-facing sectors.

• The ICAEW finds that confidence is highest in the South East. It says ‘business confidence is weakest in Yorkshire & Humber. The region reports the steepest falls in exports and employee numbers over the 12 months to Q1 2021.’ It adds ‘confidence is also subdued in Northern England.’ Companies are finding that potential bad debts and late payments may be a problem. It says: ‘one in three businesses cited late payments as a rising difficulty, a reflection of the pressure placed on company cashflows by the pandemic.’

• The ICAEW does not want fireworks. It says ‘2021 is not the right time for major changes to taxes: business is coping with COVID-19 and changes to our international trading relationships – it just can’t afford further disruption at such a precarious time in the economy.’ It does accept that the public finances will need to be ‘fixed’ at some point, however.

Company news:

• Nestle is to sell its North American water business to One Rock Capital for $3.4bn.

• Campari yesterday reported a 4.1% fall in like-for-like sales in 2020. Q4 sales were down by 7% after growth in Q3.

• Plant & Bean, a meat-free food company, is setting up on the York Biotech Campus.

HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

• YouGov reports that there is 90% adult support for the quarantine of international arrivals in hotels. If anything, UK adults do not think the rules go far enough.

• The Telegraph reports that the government is considering adding the US and Spain to the list of 33 Covid hot spots.

• Hotelplan UK, which owns a number of ski brands, has axed the remainder of its 2020/21 season.

• Real Business Rescue reports some 4,554 UK SME travel and tourism companies are now in “significant financial distress”

• IATA is calling for a Strategic Pathway to re-opening International Aviation. The heads of easyJet, Virgin Atlantic, Jet2 and TUI have similarly demanded a roadmap.

• The Save Our Summer campaign has polled travel companies and says that two thirds of companies expect to lay off more than 20% of their staff unless there is a clear roadmap to reopening post the end of April.

• Loganair boss Jonathan Hinkles has told the Aviation Club of the UK that working from home and videoconferencing may mean the post-pandemic business travel market will be smaller than before Covid. The corporate travel industry could be ‘changed for good’.

• Accor has launched a new hybrid meetings format alongside Microsoft. There will be a mix of Accor conference space and MS Teams.

• Marriott International, which this week announced the death of its CEO Arne Sorenson, has reported Q4 & full year numbers saying ‘fourth quarter 2020 comparable systemwide constant dollar RevPAR declined 64.1 percent worldwide, 64.6 percent in the U.S. & Canada, and 62.7 percent in international markets, compared to the 2019 fourth quarter.’

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