R rates & reopening, tech, delivery, jab passports, Hollywood Bowl etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Since we’ve just had to pay over seven hundred quid for an emergency delivery of the heating oil a certain person forgot to order, I’ve been considering supplementing my income by suing somebody.

I’d sue myself if I thought I was adequately insured but, as that isn’t the case, the hunt is on for a deep-pocketed villain who wouldn’t miss a bob or two and a shiny suited lawyer who’ll not ask too many awkward questions and work on a no-win, no-fee basis.

And, whilst I haven’t found a lawyer, the villain looks like Microsoft.

Because, entirely uninfluenced by its pocket-depth, I’ve decided that its grammar checker is a workplace bully that has been damaging my mental health and has turned me into a grumpy and irascible old curmudgeon.

Not that anyone who knows me has noticed a change on that front but, when the grammar checker tells me to shorten sentences or change my word order, it’s destroying my quality of life, eroding my human capital, and giving me an ulcer.

Must be worth seven hundred quid of anybody’s money. Well, we’ve made it through to Friday so let’s move on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Covid & the path to reopening:

• The NIESR has opined on the R rate & various other Covid stats, and suggests that the path to a 12 April reopening for non-essential retail and for pubs & restaurants out of doors looks to be clear (at least, at the moment).

• The NIESR says the R rate looks to have risen to 0.9 by 8 March from 0.8 a week before, this as a result of schools returning (probably).

• Nonetheless, it says ‘based on our model, by 12th April when non-essential retail is scheduled to reopen, we expect trend daily cases to be around 900, admissions around 100 and deaths below 50.’

• These numbers would seem to be in line with government modelling and would allow the journey towards reopening to continue.

• Langton comment: See premium email.

• Lumina Intelligence says ‘there’s been a shift in older consumers’ behaviour over the past few months due to the ongoing lockdown, but the big question is whether these change will stick with their new found freedom.’

• It says older consumers are becoming heavier users of technology. Specifically, Lumina says ‘for the 4-weeks commencing 2 November 2020, 22% of foodservice participants aged 55 or above ordered their food or drink online or via a delivery app, as opposed to visiting a physical site. Comparing this to the latest 4-week period commencing 25 January 2021, delivery share has jumped to 30%.’

• Lumina concludes, to the extent that a conclusion is possible, that ‘the latest lockdown accelerated a pace of change within digital ordering not seen before in this age group. Reluctant to leave their houses during the winter pandemic-peak, and bored of home cooking, these consumers were forced into a route to market they may not have considered before.’

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The consumer:

• A new Tracker service from CGA reveals that sales of deliveries and takeaways from the UK’s leading hospitality groups have more than tripled over the last 12 months. The Hospitality at Home Tracker indicates that the combined value of delivery and takeaway in February 2021 was 317% more than in the same month in 2020. The volume of orders was 19.6 million—well over double the total of 9.1 million in February 2020. With the value of sales growing significantly faster than volume, it demonstrates a big uplift in average spend.

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• There has been a debate as to whether consumers are a ‘coiled spring’ waiting to spend or whether much of the money ‘saved’ during the pandemic, hasn’t gone into the pockets of the middle and upper middle classes, where it might be saved or spent on a holiday in Tuscany.

• And there will be a lot of competition for share of wallet. Propping up the housing market soaks up cash that might otherwise be spent and there is news below (in Finance & Markets) that 40yr mortgages are making an appearance.

• Langton comment: See premium email.

Other news:

• Synergy Grill is to introduce a new range of grills at the Specifi Virtual Next trade show. It is offering outdoor grills that could be useful given outdoor opening next month.

• Stonegate has announced it has ‘been donating dozens of laptops to its team members, who have been home schooling children, that do not have access to a computer.’

• Gordon Ramsay is to launch his own range of California wines, which will be sold in his restaurants and online.

• John Lewis has said it does not expect to reopen all its department stores once it is permitted to do so. Eight stores could remain shut.

• Vegan Business Tribe is fund raising on Crowdfunder.

HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Covid issues:

• Transport secretary Grant Shapps says the government “will introduce” a form of travel certification. The Global Travel Taskforce’s report, that is currently taking place, will be made public on April 12.

• A poll conducted by Euronews has found significant differences in attitudes towards ‘vaccine passports’ across various European countries. Some 69% support the idea in Great Britain, alongside 65% in Italy and 53% in Germany. Only 39% of French citizens polled were in favour of the idea.

• Some 32% of those asked in France either oppose or strongly oppose the idea – compared to only 12% of those asked in GB.

• IATA has found that 72% of those polled believe they will travel less on business post the Covid pandemic.

• In line with out comments yesterday, IATA says ‘people want to get back to travel, but quarantine is the showstopper. As testing capacity and technology improves and the vaccinated population grows, the conditions for removing quarantine measures are being created. And this points us again towards working with governments for a well-planned re-opening as soon as conditions allow.’

• France is to row back on its Covid border restrictions for a number of countries, including the UK. Visitors will still need to test negative for Covid-19 before they travel to the country reports Sky.

Capacity & making the best of it:

• Ryanair is putting on capacity from UK airports to Greece this summer

• Cunard, which is owned by Carnival, is to announce a series of UK voyages. Cunard president Simon Palethorpe says ‘with the UK Government confirming that domestic travel is close on the horizon, we are introducing a series of exciting, shorter duration holidays for Brits looking for the perfect staycation in Cunard luxury this summer.’

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• Heathrow announced yesterday that passenger numbers fell by 91% in February to below 500,000 – the lowest since 1966.

• Trainline has reported that its revenues fell by nearly 75 per cent last year. Given that January and February would have been about normal, virtually all of the fall would have come in the last 10mths. Arithmetically, that suggests revenues in the last 10mths of the year could have been down by 85% to 90%. Trainline says with a straight face ‘the last twelve months have clearly been challenging for the industry.’

• Travel Weekly reports ferry operators as claiming that bookings have more than doubled since the government’s Covid exit roadmap was revealed.

• PE houses Apollo and Reverence are to sell timeshare company Diamond Resorts International for $1.4bn

OTHER LEISURE:

• Hollywood Bowl Group announced last night that it was to place £30m of new equity shares in order to ‘allow the Company to invest in new centre opening opportunities, resume its planned revenue generating and cost saving capex programme in existing centres and to strengthen the balance sheet.’ The placing was conducted through an accelerated book-building process.

• BOWL says it ‘saw strong customer demand and better than expected performance in August 2020 and September 2020 upon reopening, despite capacity and trading restrictions. Trading in August represented 69% of prior year revenues, with centres permitted only to have 50% of lanes in use at all times.’

• BOWL says that ‘whilst spend per game was impacted by the increased restrictions including: maximum groups of six, 10pm curfew, table service for food and drink and overall centre capacity restriction levels, games volumes increased and over the half term period, trading reached 86% of prior year revenues’ by October half term.

• The company says ‘supported by the performance recorded when the business was able to trade, the Group expects strong customer demand upon reopening. The Board is confident that the Group can recover to pre-pandemic performance levels and, with the net proceeds of the Placing, can accelerate its profitable and highly cash-generative investment plans.’

• Shares in virtual gaming world company Roblox rose by up to 60% on their first day’s trade in the US. The company is valued at nearly $50bn (billion). The operator is a pandemic winner. Some 56% of its users are reported to be under the age of 13.

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FINANCE & MARKETS:

• The UK has further delayed border checks on some EU goods coming into the country in order to head off trade disruption. MP Michael Gove has suggested this is down to Covid saying the disruption has ‘lasted longer and has been deeper than we anticipated’.

• Lender Habito is offering 40yr fixed rate mortgages. Knight Frank has said that the Budget should deliver a strong boost to house prices.

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TRADING STATEMENTS & EVENTS:

Upcoming results are set out below:

• 11 Mar 21 Playtech FY numbers

• 11 Mar 21 Morrison’s FY numbers

• 15 Mar 21 Carlsberg AGM

• 16 Mar 21 Gregg’s FY numbers

• 16 Mar 21 C&C pre-close trading update

• 17 Mar 21 Hostelworld H1 numbers

• 18 Mar 21 Fever Tree FY numbers

• 18 Mar 21 Gym Group FY numbers

• 19 Mar 21 JD Wetherspoon H1 numbers

• 23 Mar 21 DP Eurasia FY numbers

• 24 Mar 21 M&B AGM

• 25 Mar 21 Compass Group H1 update

• 25 Mar 21 TUI AGM

• 29 Mar 21 Ten Entertainment FY numbers

• 30 Mar 21 AG Barr FY numbers

• 31 Mar 21 Various Eateries AGM

• 7 Apr 21 Saga FY numbers

• 8 Apr 21 Sportech FY numbers

• 8 Apr 21 Constellation Brands FY numbers

• Est. 9 Apr 21 Barclaycard Consumer Spending (March)

• 13 Apr 21 Just Eat Q1 numbers

• 15 Apr 21 Pepsi Q1 numbers

• 22 Apr 21 Domino’s Pizza PLC AGM

• 23 Apr 21 Gear4Music results

• 28 Apr 21 Carlsberg Q1 numbers

• 4 May 21 Campari Q1 numbers

• 7 May 21 Intercontinental Hotels Q1 numbers

• Est 9 May 21 Barclaycard Consumer Spending (Apr)

• 12 May 21 Compass Group H1 numbers

• 12 May 21 Stock Spirits H1 numbers

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• Est 19 May 21 Marston’s H1 numbers

• 27 Jul 21 Campari H1 numbers

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• 18 Aug 21 Carlsberg H1 numbers

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• 26 Oct 21 Campari Q3 numbers

• 8 Dec 21 TUI FY numbers

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