May Tracker, 21 June, football, BrewDog, feedback loops & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Langton was on the Central on the Central Line earlier in the week and it was almost back to its sweaty, cramped, claustrophobic best.

I suppose there must be a reason why it’s so horrible, maybe it’s the law.

Some legislation, somewhere, written by the taxi drivers’ union that dictates you must, from time to time, have ghastly journeys to incentivise you to stay above ground or something.

Anyway, see our tweets from yesterday for further details and, before we get too steamed up about it, it just remains to say, have a great weekend and here’s the news:

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MAY SALES TRACKER:

Introduction:

• The Coffer CGA CGA Business Tracker for May has been released showing that ‘Britain’s managed pub, restaurant and bar groups recorded a 26% drop in total sales in May from the same month in 2019.’

• May is the latest in a run of many, many abnormal months. In this case because outdoor dining only was allowed until 17 May, after which, pubs and restaurants could offer (a form of) indoor service.

Further detail – see premium email. If you would like to see an example of the premium email, please just let us know.

PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Trading & 21 June:

• The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) claims a delay in lifting restrictions would ‘materially’ hamper Britain’s economic recovery.

• Suren Thiru, head of economics at the BCC, said ‘The UK economy is in a temporary sweet spot with the boost from the release of pent-up demand, if restrictions ease as planned, and ongoing government support expected to drive a substantial summer revival in economic activity, underpinned by the rapid vaccine rollout.’

• The BBPA predicts that England fans will buy 3 million pints on Sunday 13th June when England faces Croatia in the Euros.

• CEO of the BBPA, Emma McClarkin, said that due to physical restrictions ‘we expect pubs to sell 1 million pints less than they would have done without restrictions. That will cost our pubs £3 million on Sunday alone. Given our pubs have been closed or faced restrictions for more than a year, every little helps and is critical to our recovery and survival.’

• The Welsh Beer & Pub Association (WBPA) predict that Welsh fans will buy 250,000 pints as they watch their team take on Switzerland on Saturday 12th June in the Euros.

Working from home.

• Go-ahead, the transport operator which runs the Govia Thameslink and Southeastern rail franchises, has said more people are taking its buses and trains than at any time since the start of the pandemic. Passenger numbers are at 65-70% of typical levels on most days and at 80% in some regions.

• A YouGov poll reveals that 70% of British workers agree travelling for work and meeting face-to-face strengthens business relationships. The survey found that young workers aged 18 to 34 were the keenest to escape the house for business travel.

Company & other news:

• North Coast Brewing Co has acquired Wooha Brewing from administration.

• The Society of Independent Brewers (SIBA) names Roy Allkin as its new National Chair. Mr Allkin is from Boss Brewing, in Swansea.

• Starbucks is to once again allow customers (in the US) to bring their own reusable cups from 22 June

• BrewDog. An open letter issued by former staff at BrewDog alleges a ‘culture of fear’ at the beer company with a ‘toxic attitude’ towards junior employees. BrewDog founder James Watt has said BrewDog was ‘sorry’ and that it would not contest the letter. See also comments in premium email re fear & dysfunctional feedback loops.

FEEDBACK LOOPS:

Introduction:

• We commented last month that these are good when they work and bad when they don’t. See premium email.

LATE BREAKING NEWS – See premium email for detail.

Pubs & restaurants:

• UKH has welcomed Labour’s calls for further economic support for businesses should unlocking be delayed.

• The government has launched a Tourism Recovery Plan

• NRN in the US says that, although customers are returning, ‘the threat of inflation keeps anxiety levels high.

• Menu prices. Albeit in the US, NRN says ‘in the face of inflation, one thing is certain: restaurants will need to increase menu prices in order to maintain profitability.’

• The BBC asks where have all the workers gone?

• In the US, Starbucks has been hit by supply shortages, reports Bloomberg.

• Domino’s Pizza and Fuller’s have this morning separately announced that Neil Smith is to leave his role as CFA at the former to take up the same position at the latter.

• Naked Wines plc has reported full year numbers for the 52 weeks ending 29 March 2021.

• Grubhub’s shareholders have approved the proposals necessary to complete the proposed acquisition by Just Eat Takeaway.com

• A further $60bn is being proposed for the Restaurant Revitalization Fund in the US.

• The Mosaic Pub & Dining Company is to open a darts pub in Cheltenham

Travel & holidays:

• Travel Weekly reports that holiday prices in Portugal have fallen sharply

• EasyJet and Ryanair have echoed Theresa May’s comments that the UK’s traffic light system is a “shambles.”

• BA is to put thousands of its staff back on furlough due to delays to the restart of international travel.

• Carnival Cruise Line has confirmed the first cruise for Mardi Gras and has outlined the return of additional ships in August.

• STR reports that US hotel performance was flat week-on-week

• The ONS has reported that The UK economy grew 2.3% in April, its fastest monthly rate since July last year.

Finance & markets:

• The BBC asks ‘can countries pay back pandemic debt?’

• Sterling, oil & interest rates.

• Further detail – see premium email. If you would like to see an example of the premium email, please just let us know.

HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

• Polling has revealed that 20% of people are still considering taking a holiday to foreign countries on England’s amber list, despite increased testing and quarantine requirements. Travel agents are calling for ministers to allow people who have had both doses of vaccine to travel to amber countries without testing and 10 days’ quarantine on return. 

• Theresa May, fast establishing her rebel creds, has said her government’s traffic lights system is “chaotic.”

• Carnival’s Aida Cruises are to recommence on 29 July.

• Staycity is opening this month in Heidelberg, Germany and the French city of Bordeaux.

OTHER LEISURE:

• Entain is preparing for more than three million fans across Europe to place bets on the Euros which kick off tomorrow night. This is roughly twice as many as bet on the last World Cup in 2018.  France is the most backed to win with almost half of UK fans so far putting money on Les Bleus.   

FINANCE & MARKETS:

• OECD figures show that the UK’s recovery from the damage caused by the Covid pandemic lagged behind other big economies in the first quarter of 2021, with economic output 8.7% below pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2019.

• Last month the OECD predicted the UK was likely to grow 7.2% in 2021, up from its March projection of 5.1%, making it the fastest among the large rich countries.

• The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors said the housing market is continuing to gain momentum as buyers rush to meet the deadline for the end to partial stamp duty relief, in its monthly survey.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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TRADING STATEMENTS & EVENTS:

Upcoming results are set out below:

• 8 Jun 21 DP Eurasia AGM

• 9 Jun 21 SSP H1 numbers

• Est 9 Jun 21 Barclaycard Consumer Spending report

• 10 Jun 21 Compoir FY numbers

• 15 Jun 21 Vianet full year numbers

• 15 Jun 21 On the Beach H1 numbers

• 22 Jun 21 Coca Cola HBC AGM

• 24 Jun 21 Bank of England MPC meeting

• 30 Jun 21 Constellation Brands Q1

• 8 Jul 21 Fuller’s FY numbers

• 13 Jul 21 Pepsi Q2 numbers

• 23 Jul 21 Premier Foods AGM & Q1 update

• 27 Jul 21 Campari H1 numbers

• 27 Jul 21 Games Workshop FY numbers

• 3 Aug 21 Domino’s Pizza H1 numbers

• 5 Aug 21 Bank of England MPC meeting

• 10 Aug 21 Intercontinental Hotels H1 numbers

• 12 Aug 21 TUI Q3 numbers

• 18 Aug 21 Carlsberg H1 numbers

• 19 Aug 21 Rank FY numbers

• 22 Oct 21 Intercontinental Hotels Q3 numbers

• 26 Oct 21 Campari Q3 numbers

• 8 Dec 21 TUI FY numbers

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