SSP, Fulham Shore, Comptoir, labour, product & fuel, WFH, passports etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Truly grim weather yesterday for perhaps the first time in a month as thunderous rain sought out, found and exploited the few leaks in our flat roof not visible to the naked eye.

It wasn’t a day to be schlepping around like a 1940s spiv with a Jerry Can looking for petrol though that might not be necessary as the fuel situation has ‘stabilised’ according to Mr Shapps. Currently our Transport Secretary, he declines to (or maybe cannot) say whether this is at acceptable levels or at the levels of total inactivity associated with absolute zero.

Anyway, opinion seems to be that wearing brown shoes with a suit isn’t quite the capital offence that it used to be but, with all the lads home for a wedding this weekend, I can ask them for a final opinion. We’re certainly going to have a house-full. Nine at last count and rising. The dog will have a fit. On to the news:

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COMPANY UPDATES – SSP GROUP, FULHAM SHORE, COMPTOIR:

SSP Group has updated on Q4 and full year trading saying that ‘as reported at the Group’s Interim results in June, the business is benefitting from increased passenger numbers across the travel sector. In the third quarter revenue improved to 27% of 2019 levels and in the fourth quarter is expected to be c. 47%, resulting in second half revenue of c. 37% of 2019 levels. In the latest week, revenue was approximately 53% of 2019 levels.’

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The Fulham Shore has updated on trading in a statement that will be read to shareholders at its AGM later today. The company says that the period since its year end 9on 289 March) comprises 10 weeks of full trading and 16 weeks of restricted trading.

The company says of the whole period (albeit with a larger number of units) that ‘despite being able to trade without restrictions and serve dine in customers for only 10 out of the 26 weeks of the Period, total Group revenues increased to over £39m compared to £36m achieved during the comparable period in 2019.’ The company refers to new units, strong trading, maintained delivery penetration, new openings, debt and dividend policy.

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Comptoir Group has reported H1 numbers saying that revenue was down on 2020 by 6.9% at £5.7m with adjusted EBITDA of £1.6m against £0.45m last year. The group is reporting a loss after tax of £1.2m vs a loss last year of just under £5m. The company, which operates 21 restaurants with another 4 franchised, says that ‘we have made strong progress over the past six months. Whilst we have been focusing on the re-opening of the sites and welcoming back dine-in customers as the Government restrictions were lifted; we have also been transforming the business through investment in systems and technology.’

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Access to labour. A number of operators have written an open letter to the FT calling on the Government to further relax its temporary work visas to include the hospitality sector. The letter has been signed by Sir Rocco Forte, Jeremy King (Corbyn & King), Joel Cadbury, Richard Caring and Simon Thomas (The Hippodrome) amongst others. It says that ‘the hospitality industry in the UK injects millions of pounds into the economy in taxes and helps to make people “feel good”’ and adds that ‘hospitality is not a low-skilled career. There are many roles both in the kitchen and on the floor which require a high level of training and extensive experience.’

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A move to ‘read across’ from haulage workers and poultry staff to hospitality. UKH says of the government backdown ‘we welcome this move from Government, and their recognition of the significant issues facing the supply chain in the UK. We have been communicating to Government throughout the summer about the significant impacts this was having upon the sector and the need for such a measure,;

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Fuel shortages. These matter because if the consumer can’t move, then he or she can’t spend. If deliveries don’t get through to hospitality outlets, then the product can’t be sold. If consumers are pinging from one petrol station to another (or worrying about doing so), then they won’t be spending as they normally would. The army either will or it won’t get involved, depending on which cabinet minister is speaking. Things may have ‘stabilised’ per Grant Shapps. Petrol prices are at 8yr highs.

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WFH and some further signs of the drift back to the office. Springboard has reported that retailers have benefited from a further return to the office.

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Supply issues. Stonegate commercial director Suzanne Baker has told the MCA’s Pub Conference that the ongoing supply chain issues affecting the sector are “absolutely painful” and warned there is likely to be a bumpy ride up to Christmas. AG Barr also referred to delivery problems.

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Scotland’s vaccine passport scheme comes into force on Friday. First minister Nicola Sturgeon has said there will be an effective grace period of two weeks. UKH Scotland says ‘the reality is that the Scottish Government is not ready to introduce this scheme. With no published regulations or guidance, businesses are working in the dark with little chance of being ready for Friday.’ It adds ‘similarly, there has been no public campaign to advise people on what they need to do, with the app for downloading certification only available from this Thursday. The delay in enforcement doesn’t remove the difficulties that many businesses will face later when staffing shortages will remain.’

Black Box in the US reports that restaurant two-year check growth rates reached their highest point in around 12yrs in the week to 19 Sept. Black Box also found hourly that wage growth has continued to rise since the beginning of the year. It notes ‘wage growth for crew members in limited-service remained flat compared to June, but at a historically high level that shows the push for using higher wages as a resource to attract talent.’

The BBC quips that we’re not short of shortages. It mentions labour and products such as fuel, milk, meat, toys, fresh veg and petrol.

Company & other news:

The Competition and Markets Authority is considering a probe into Admiral Taverns’ takeover of the Hawthorn pub business. It is reported to be looking at whether the merger “has resulted, or may be expected to result, in a substantial lessening of competition”.

German bratwurst brand Extrawurst is making its UK debut later this year with units in Birmingham and Nottingham.

Indian food delivery start-up Swiggy is reported to be in talks to raise over $500 million in a new financing round. It could be valued by the raise at over $10 billion, reports Tech Crunch.

HOTELS & LEISURE TRAVEL NEWS:

Begbies Traynor has told Travel Weekly that further company failures in the travel sector are likely as government supports via the furlough scheme starts to unwind and banks become more demanding.

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Hotstats comments on the global hotel industry saying that it is now facing ‘a cold, hard truth’. Namely that ‘attaining the same level of pre-pandemic operational performance will not be measured in days, but months, even years.’ We’re not clear what’s longer than ’years’ but Hotstats says that the above is ‘what August data from HotStats portends and at a crossroads, as summer gives way to fall and a host of new variables come into play, that could derail the modest success the past several months have demonstrated.’

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Easyhotel has appointed Karim Malak, European Aparthotels Adagio boss, as its new CEO. The group’s chairman ‘would also like to thank Nicolas Castanet who, following the tragic death of our former chief executive Francois Bacchetta, has excellently taken on the additional responsibilities of interim chief executive as well as his current and ongoing duties as chief financial officer.’

STR reports that Glasgow’s hotel occupancy ‘is nearing 90% for the UN Climate Change Conference in early November.’ It says ‘as vaccination rates have risen, and international travel restrictions have eased, confidence has grown around major in-person events.’ It continues ‘the dates around the UN conference have stood out in our forward-looking data for quite some time, and levels have improved as we’ve drawn closer to the event with an improving pandemic situation. Provided there are no late setbacks, these dates in early November will be a huge win for Scotland’s hotel industry.’

Royal Caribbean reports that it has an “aggressive” plan to drive sales in Q4 2021 and into 2022. Vice-president EMEA Ben Bouldin says ‘we have a very aggressive plan for 2022. We’ve not been able to make the sort of money and revenues that we have enjoyed for the last few years and our plan is to get back on track.’ The ‘track’ mentioned ‘will see us sail with more guests in 2022 that sailed with us in 2019.’

PPHE Hotel Group has announced that ‘the Group, via its subsidiary, Arena Hospitality Group, has entered into a purchase agreement pursuant to which the Group will acquire the FRANZ Ferdinand Mountain Resort Nassfeld, a 4-star hotel in Nassfeld, Austria and related businesses for an aggregate purchase price of 112 million Croatian Kuna (approximately £12.7 million).

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FINANCE & MARKETS:

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has reported that a number of economic shocks to the UK’s recovery meant that the ‘truly hard yards’ were now to be faced. Bailey said so many problems have reared their heads over the last few months that he was tempted to ask: When’s the plague of locusts?

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Oil prices were yesterday above $80 for the first time in 3yrs and domestic UK petrol prices are at 8yr highs.

Sterling lower at $1.3548 and €1.1595. Oil price down below $80 at $77.85. UK 10yr gilt yield at 1.00% (up 4bps on yesterday). World markets down yesterday but London set to open up around 9pts as at 6.45am.

The Times reports that fears of stagflation ‘have sent global markets into retreat, knocking the pound and driving up UK government borrowing costs.’ It points out that Sterling fell by more than 1 per cent against the dollar to its lowest point since January overnight ‘amid talk that the UK’s gas shortage and the rising oil price could imperil recovery.’

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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