Fulham Shore, service output, R-rate, mixed messaging, holidays etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Considering introductory words and phrases as we did last week (e.g. honestly, let me be clear, to tell you the truth, to be fair etc), there are some (such as those abovementioned) which are pointless, maybe dissembling but otherwise relatively harmless, and then there are others that can be rather aggressive or at least dismissive.

Because, in some lights, if you start a response to a question with ‘yeah, OK, so look, I mean…’ you might run the risk of being seen to imply that your questioner is either a) an idiot, or b) they didn’t listen to what you said earlier, or c) both.

Anyway, we’ll avoid using all of the words above as we face another working week. The Mighty Hull took another point over the weekend to make it 13 out of the last possible 15. One for the diary. On to the news:

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CANCELLATIONS:

As far as information flow is concerned, it might be said that there’s a lot of heat out there but not much light. Please spare a moment to let us know if you’re seeing cancellations and we’ll anonymise and collate the responses and comment on them later in the week for contributors and to go in the premium email.

FULHAM SHORE H1 NUMBERS:

The Fulham Shore has reported H1 numbers and our comments are set out below:

Headline numbers:

• The Fulham Shore reports revenue in H1 rose by 103% to £39.5m (2020: £19.9m). It reminds investors that ‘restaurants traded with no COVID-19 restrictions for only 10 of the 26 weeks comprising the Half Year.’

• The group reports adjusted Headline EBITDA of £6.9m (2020: loss of £0.1m) with an operating profit of £4.5m (2020: loss of £3.0m).

• The group says both Franco Manca and The Real Greek’s ‘revenue, Headline EBITDA and profit before taxation [were] ahead of the same period prior to COVID-19 in 2019.’

• The company reports a profit after tax of £2.4m (2020: loss of £3.9m) and says that it had operating cash inflows of £15.6m (2020: £6.3m)

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Services output:

Markit reports that the UK service sector has seen the strong recovery in activity continue during November. It says this was ‘helped by the fastest rise in new business intakes for five months.’ However, Markit says that its ‘latest survey data highlighted another round of rapid cost inflation, driven by higher fuel prices, wages and utility bills. Prices charged by service providers also increased at the fastest rate since the survey began in July 1996.’

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The R rate:

The NIESR has updated on its estimates of the R rate saying ‘the R number is around 1 in all regions and nations apart from Scotland where it is significantly below 1.’

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Mixed messaging:

Go do work, don’t go to work. But go to work may be back again as Big Hospitality reports that ‘operators are counting the cost of the Government’s mixed messages around what employers and the public should do in the face of the new Omicron variant.’ It quotes some London operators as saying there has been an immediate impact on trade whilst some others are saying that they have not seen cancellations for Christmas.

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Research from KAM Media shows that tech can free up staff to enable them to deliver a better customer experience. For customers, 38% of customers think tech can speed up service and 25% believe it can make it easier and faster to pay.

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Oliver Dowden, the Conservative Party chairman, told Sky News that people should continue to go to the pub and dine at restaurants during the festive season. Mr Dowden said ‘We’ve put the necessary restrictions in place, but beyond that, keep calm and carry on.’  

Product supply:

The BBC reports ‘there are early signs the shortage of lorry drivers will improve.’ The BBC quotes Logistics UK as saying that the number of drivers leaving the profession had begun to ease. Meanwhile, some 1,000 HGV drivers and warehouse staff at four of Tesco’s distribution centres have voted to strike from December 16 reports The Telegraph. Pubs and restaurants seem to have secured supplies (of some sort) as there are perhaps more alternative sources of supply when shortages occur.

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Nightclubs in Ireland will shut again until at least 9 January in a move that will send chills through the UK industry. The Sunday Times says that PM Boris Johnson is to comment on Christmas on 17th of the month. By then, it will be too late for many people to change their plans.

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COMPANY & OTHER NEWS:

The Sunday Times reports that Richard Caring has stepped up to take day-to-day control of his restaurant empire after his chief executive Baton Berisha left the company after just a year in the top role. It says the senior executive team will now report directly to Caring.

London pizza takeaway Fireaway is reported set to pass 100 branches by 2022. Fireaway says ‘our pizzas went down very well with our customers right from the start. Within a few weeks one of my regulars asked if he could become a franchisee.’

The Guardian reports that smoothie chain Joe & the Juice plans to add up to 20 outlets in the UK next year on top of the 54 already open. The group has around 300 units worldwide.

MediaVision reports that online searches for ‘gin’ are down 14% YoY, whilst vodka and martini searches are up. Searches for ‘Absolut Vodka’ were up 108% from 2020 and ‘passionfruit martini’ rose by 69%.

Pret A Manger has launched its Pret Coffee Subscription as a digital gift card, enabling Pret fans to gift their friends and family with up to 150 drinks per month, for £20 a month.

BrewDog has opened its latest site in Huddersfield located on Zetland Street just a few minutes’ walk from the train station.

The Real Greek is set to open a site at Manchester’s Corn Exchange, becoming the brand’s first northern location. The 200 cover site will take the brand up to 22 sites. 

Prospect Pubs & Bars Ltd is set to open its fifth site, The Joiners Arms in Bloxham, Oxfordshire in mid-January 2022.

Stonegate reports The Oak Tree in Norwich has reopened following a £500k refurbishment, creating 10 new jobs for the pub.

T Anheuser-Busch InBev will today host a webcast for analysts in which Michel Doukeris, Chief Executive Officer, and the senior leadership team will discuss the Company’s strategic priorities, focused on leading and growing the beer category, digitizing and monetizing AB InBev’s ecosystem, optimizing its business and creating a more sustainable and inclusive future.

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he Drinks List reports that Tequila sales to the on-trade have been extremely positive in general, with biggest brand is Jose Cuervo having totalled 23,777 9-litres cases (9lc) in volume sales for the past year and £26.1m in value sales.

Hofmeister has achieved its crowdfunding target of £600k with 26 days remaining, with the investment set to help it achieve its goal of £10m turnover by 2025. The brand said it has spotted a gap in the market to catapult a Bavarian beer to the same level of success seen by its counterparts from other European countries.

Zia Lucia, an independent London pizzeria chain, will open a new site in Balham on 9 December.

PubAid is bringing back The World’s Biggest Pub Quiz which will be returning to pubs in March next year, with a new charity partner in Shelter and a new way to host and play using online quiz platform Kwizzbit. 

In the US, the Department of Labour Bureau of Labour Statistics has reported that, whilst the number of jobs in the foodservice industry has increased again, the level has not yet reached the level of pre-pandemic employment numbers. Employment in the foodservice sector rose by 11,000 last month, to 11.55m. A spokesman for the Independent Restaurant Coalition said ‘tens of thousands of restaurants are in danger of closing permanently leaving hundreds of thousands of jobs unfilled this winter.’ It says ‘slow growth for restaurant and bar jobs in today’s employment report shows that we can’t build back better without a vibrant restaurant industry.’

LEISURE TRAVEL & HOTELS:

New regulations mean that visitors to the UK will need to take a Covid test prior to departure. Nigeria has additionally been added to the Red List of countries where only arrivals will be required to quarantine for 14 days at their own expense in a government approved hotel.

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Speakers at the 14th hotel webinar have said that the pandemic has prompted faster change and the hotel sector must be part of that. Oliver Freestone, a director at AlixPartners, identified the time people spend online and the role of smartphones as being the biggest catalysts for change. Innovations could include concepts such as smart rooms, digital reception and keyless entry.

At the webinar, Eric Jafari, chief development officer at edyn said ‘The bigger the disruption the greater the period of innovation…Hotels tend not to be too innovative compared with other sectors but labour shortages are going to force us to evolve.’

STR reports that US hotel occupancy for Thanksgiving week was up 4.6% against the same period in 2019, to 53%.  ADR was up 14.3% to $128.41 and RevPAR was up 19.6% to $68. 

OTHER LEISURE:

Donald Trump’s new social media platform, Truth Social, has said it has raised $1bn from investors ahead of a stock market listing. Mr Trump remains banned from Twitter and Facebook. He says ‘$1bn sends an important message to Big Tech that censorship and political discrimination must end.’

The new Spider-Man film has reportedly set a ticket-sale record in the UK before its release,  thus beating No Time to Die’s earlier record.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The Bank of England may be edging away from raising rates later this month on the back of Omicron fears.

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US employers added 210,000 jobs in November, below estimates of around 550,000.

Brazil is now reporting inflation over 10%. It hit 10.7% in October and is forecast to remain in double digits until at least Q2 next year.

Markit reports that the UK service sector has seen the strong recovery in activity continue during November. It says this was ‘helped by the fastest rise in new business intakes for five months.’

Sterling weaker at $1.3232 and €1.1721. Oil price up at $71.54. UK 10yr gilt yield down 2bps at 0.77%. World markets lower on Friday but London set to open up around 62pts.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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