AG Barr, insurance, future trading, Domino’s, Arc, travel demand etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Running a bit behind today after getting sucked into watching some of the fireworks in the House of Commons yesterday.

It was Nixon who said to Frost, ‘when the President does it, that means it’s not illegal’. Interesting, but surely no way to run a democracy.

However, apropos of nothing, it did get us thinking about lying. It’s a complicated area. Ian Blackford saw it in blacks and whites but there may be some people who could pass a lie-detector test on the basis that a lie wasn’t really a lie because they so-much wanted what they said to be true.

Or it was true in the version of the film running in their head.

Or narcissists can’t be liars because they really believe what they say or, on the tree falling in a forest when nobody can hear it principle, a lie isn’t a lie if it can’t be proven to be such.

Or if the can’s kicked far enough down the road that nobody cares any more, was the lie ever really a lie? Or if attention is distracted? A bit of flag-waving or a small-scale war would fit the bill.

Anyway, all that’s above our paygrade. Let’s move on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

The outlook for the wider industry.

The latest report from Future Foodservice considers the outlook for the foodservice industry to 2025 and concludes that revenues should ‘grow to £95.6bn, increasing substantially from £75bn in 2021, but [will still be] lower than the £98bn achieved in 2019.’ The reports suggests that there will be ‘more apparent polarisation between value-driven social refuelling and the experiential, premiumised dining, with challenges for those stuck in the middle.’

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The Independent quotes some retailers and hauliers as warning that increased Brexit red tape will see reduced choice in supermarkets.

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Consumer spending power.

With taxes and mortgage rates set to rise, the consumer could end up somewhat strapped. Additionally, food and energy costs are going up. Inflation is ahead of wage rises. Even more so when tax increases are factored in. Consumption, therefore, can only be maintained in some areas by spending less in others. The only way consumption as a whole can be maintained is if consumers save less or actively dissave (i.e. borrow to spend). Fingers crossed but this is often a hugely dangerous course of action.

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Real Business Rescue reports that more than 6,000 pubs and bars were in significant financial distress in December 2021, a 23% increase when compared with Q4 2019. According to data from CGA, trade was down by an average of 30% for the sector during the second half of December 2021 when compared with 2019.

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Guest experience management expert HGEM reveals that 61% of consumers believe service standards within the industry have fallen, and main issues that have led to disappointment have been service quality and service speed.  The survey also points out that three out of four customers would be more lenient about service mishaps if they knew that the location was actively trying to recruit more staff.

Insurance claims:

Black and White Hospitality and Rare Restaurants, which own the Marco Pierre White and Gaucho restaurants respectively, have joined forces to prepare for an arbitration with Tokio Marine, the insurance company for both operators, which has thus far refused to pay out on business interruption insurance policies.

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COMPANY & OTHER NEWS:

AG Barr has updated on full year trading for the 53 weeks to 30 January saying that ‘revenue for the year is expected to be c.£267m, a 17.5% increase compared to the prior year.’ It says ‘this is marginally ahead of the revised guidance issued in November 2021 and exceeds the pre-pandemic revenue performance of 2019/20 (£255.7m) which also included c.£21m of Rockstar brand revenue.’ Co mentions inflationary pressures & says it is cutting costs.

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Domino’s in the US has offered customers a $3 credit towards future purchases if they collect their orders rather than have them delivered. The promotion is time limited and will run until 22 May. The company says it will cover the Superbowl period.

The BII has announced that entries are now open for the 2022 BII Licensee of the Year award. It says ‘the impact of the pandemic on the pub sector over the last 2 years has been devastating, but even when their venues were closed and their businesses were at their most fragile, the nations’ licensees showed resilience, positivity and above all care for their teams, customers and local communities.’

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Tesco is to shut its Jack’s brand, the hard discounter that was intended to compete with Aldi and Lidl.

Diageo has announced more than £70m investment into a new microbrewery and culture hub in Covent Garden, central London. Guinness at Old Brewer’s Yard is set to open in autumn next year, and become the Southern UK hub of Diageo’s Learning for Life Bartending and Hospitality Programme. 

Arc Inspirations has secured a £14m refinancing package, which includes a separate £5m facility to help the group expand its site numbers. Arc Inspirations runs 18 sites across its Manahatta, Box and Banyan brands in the north of England. CFO Tim Knockton says ‘we’re delighted to have successfully concluded this process – it is clearly a significant endorsement for Arc Inspirations and for the wider hospitality sector.  From early in the process, we were extremely encouraged by the number of banks that showed interest in supporting the refinancing and are very pleased to be partnering with HSBC, who are long-term supporters of the sector.’

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Greggs has been named the most admired brand in the UK at the Britain’s Most Admired Companies awards.

Swingers City and Swingers West End, has partnered with non-alcoholic spirits brand CleanCo, to introduce a selection of non-alcoholic cocktails for guests.

Direct Wines has warned that proposed changes to alcohol duty will lead to higher prices and less choice for wine drinkers. According to the Wine and Spirit Trade Association (WSTA), 80% of white wines and 90% of red wines will face a duty hike.

Student work app Stint has hired a new Chief Technology Officer (CTO) and Chief Product Officer (CPO), following the appointment of Harry Lang as Stint’s first Chief Marketing Officer earlier this month.

Plant-based meat company, Heura, has announced  it has more than doubled the number of households that consume Heura vs. last year. The company closed 2021 with €17.7m in turnover, up from €8m in 2020.

The entry deadline for the SIBA Business Awards 2022 has been extended to the 13th February.  The 2022 awards include three new categories in response to shifting consumer buying habits.

LEISURE TRAVEL & HOTELS:

Ryanair has dampened recovery hopes saying that the future remains “hugely uncertain” despite a recent pickup in demand. CEO Michael O’Leary says that bookings are coming in later than usual, so the airline is planning to cut prices to stimulate demand.

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New proposals announced on Monday will give airline passengers on UK domestic flights a fairer and simpler compensation process for delays. Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said the proposals ‘aim to bolster airline consumer protections and rights’.

The Queens Hotel Leeds has seen a 50% surge in bookings following £16m refurbishment, with its clients ‘eager to get back to live events’.

All travellers to EU member states will now be required to have had a second vaccination within nine months.

OTHER LEISURE:

Cineworld has today announced ‘that it has initiated discussions with former dissenting shareholders of Regal Entertainment Group in relation to a potential rescheduling of the Group’s payment obligations under the unsecured facility agreement relating to the settlement reached with such shareholders which was announced on 10 September 2021.

The company says ‘in order to facilitate these discussions, Cineworld has obtained waivers of, or undertakings to waive, any events of default arising from non-payment under the Unsecured Facility Agreement from various other creditors. These creditors include certain holders of Cineworld’s guaranteed convertible bond due 2025 as well as the lenders under certain of its existing debt facilities.’ It says it ‘has initiated discussions with the Regal Litigation Parties with the aim of maximising its available liquidity and is hopeful that a satisfactory agreement can be reached within the period afforded by the waivers.’

Sony Interactive Entertainment has announced that it is to acquire games company Bungie for $3.6 billion. The co says ‘we’ve had a strong partnership with Bungie since the inception of the Destiny franchise, and I couldn’t be more thrilled to officially welcome the studio to the PlayStation family.’ It says ‘this is an important step in our strategy to expand the reach of PlayStation to a much wider audience. We understand how vital Bungie’s community is to the studio and look forward to supporting them as they remain independent and continue to grow.’

Wordle has been bought by the owner of the New York Times.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Sterling mixed at $1.3452 and €1.1966. Oil price lower at $89.49. UK 10yr gilt yield up 6bps at 1.30%. Bank of England rate decision to be announced on Thursday. World markets mixed to better on Monday. London set to open up some 55pts as at 7am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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