Return to work, confidence, Gregg’s, Chipotle, Lyft, BrewDog etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Sometimes, I rue the fact that the letters U and H are so close together, especially when you’re trying to type the word ‘suit’.

For example, if you’re asking if something suits someone, it can convey completely the wrong impression if you replace the U with an H. Of course, it would fit in with the vernacular a little better if you said that something ‘suits you not’ but that would be a bit convoluted so we’ll leave it there.

Busy day with meetings today. Real, genuine, visiting someone else’s office meetings and, it has to be said, London felt busier yesterday than it has for a while. Perhaps that’s about time. Let’s move on to the news. 

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GENERAL THOUGHTS: LANGUAGE TO RELY ON?

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Geographic differences:

CGA & Wireless Social have commented on ‘the current vibrancy of the hospitality sector in Britain’s 10 most populous cities.’ They are looking at how much below 2019 sales the areas are tracking. Looking at the four-week period to 15 January, the research concludes that ‘Leeds was the most vibrant city of the 10 with a 0.2% drop in sales compared with the same period in 2019, ahead of Glasgow, Bristol and Birmingham, where restaurant, pub and bar sales held up relatively well in late December and early January.’ London, perhaps unsurprisingly, is 10th out of ten.

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WFH:

Construction market analysts Glenigan says ‘the prospects for new construction work are set for a boost now that Covid restrictions have been lifted and a return to office working is in progress, particularly on office refurbishment projects and on hotel & leisure schemes geared to a recovery in the travel sector.’

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Bloomberg’s latest Pret Index suggests that ‘bankers, corporate lawyers and asset managers in the U.K. appear to be repopulating London’s City and Canary Wharf financial districts almost twice as fast as Wall Street.’ It says Pret’s ‘transactions are now 78% of pre-Covid-19 levels in London’s finance hubs, about 10% less than the pandemic high set in the areas last year when almost all restrictions were lifted. By comparison, the cluster that includes Wall Street is only trading at 41% of normal levels.’

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Consumer confidence:

Bank of America has reported that its measure of confidence among British households in their personal financial situation fell to its lowest since the bank began its survey in 2017. It says that a broader gauge of consumer confidence dropped to its lowest in 11 months.

A new marketing group is expected to be set up by England’s whiskey distilleries – to be unveiled in Spring. White Peak Distillery’s co-founder Max Vaughan said the group constituted ‘everyone that currently had a whisky in the market – or was set to release one’.

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A survey by the Night-Time Industries Association (NTIA) reveals that night-time businesses have seen a 26% rise in total operating costs in the past year. On average, increases were as follows: 18% in stock and workforce expenses, a 29% rise in utility costs and a 31% increase in insurance prices all contributed to the overall rise in total operating costs.

The latest Lumina Eating Out Report 2021 shows that 51% of UK consumers ate out during the Christmas week, marking the lowest level of the 12 weeks to 26 December 2021. However, the report found that total spend increased by +2.5%, to £12.29, as festive celebrations throughout November and early December prompted high spends.

Covid loans:

Increased scrutiny of emergency Covid loans in the wake of the resignation of Lord Agnew has suggested that perhaps as much as £20bn of the money will need to be written off reports Company Rescue. This is clearly a hot political potato.

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Sport & the pub:

According to the MA, Oxford Partnership data shows that 30% more customers have come into pubs due to the kick-off of the Six Nations rugby tournament. Scottish pubs sold an extra 238 pints per venue, Wales followed with 184 extra pints per venue and sites in England sold 149 additional pints.

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COMPANY & OTHER NEWS:

German Doner Kebab will open 78 restaurants in the UK this year, making it the fastest growing UK restaurant chain. The ambitious growth strategy will build on the 39 restaurants that were opened during 2021.

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Oaknorth Bank says that Ottolenghi, which it lent £3.7m to in July 2020, has ‘expanded its online shop with dinner boxes, prepare at home meal kits, and a tableware licensing deal, as well as growing its Ottolenghi Ready range.’ It says ‘the business is now operating at a higher earnings margin than before COVID-19.’

Gregg’s is set to launch a clothing range in conjunction with Primark. The bakery chain is also set to open its largest Gregg’s to date, in the Primark store in Birmingham. The café will have 130 seats. Some have said this is more a gimmick than a serious attempt to crack clothing – but good luck to them. The Birmingham store will open this Saturday 12 February.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (the US parent) yesterday reported full year numbers saying that comparable restaurant sales were up 15.2% for the Dec. 31-ended fourth quarter, and up 19.3% for the full fiscal year.

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BrewDog:

The MCA comments on BrewDog’s situation following adverse press publicity and comments from former and current employees saying that ‘another slew of negative headlines against BrewDog CEO James Watt [has] piled further pressure on the irreverent and controversial craft beer leader.

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SALT microbrewery is launching its Craft + Falafel concept in central Leeds, set to open 18 February. This will be the second SALT Tap in Leeds following SALT Craft + Cocktails.

KERB Counter is launching later this month, offering a bar and test kitchen space in the centre of Shoreditch with exclusive collaborations, pop-ups and food residencies from a roster of food entrepreneurs. The space will open to the public on Thursday February 10 with a residency by From The Ashes BBQ.

The Big Table Group, operator of Las Iguanas, Bella Italia and Cafe Rouge, has appointed Debbie Moore as the company’s new HR Director. Moore was previously Head of HR at Arcadia.

LEISURE TRAVEL & HOTELS:

The World Travel & Tourism Council has said that ineffective government travel restrictions imposed to combat Omicron lost the UK economy some £7bn last year. The WTTC says ‘imposing unnecessary travel restrictions to ‘deal’ with Omicron was not backed by science and cost the UK economy £7 billion in lost revenues.’

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Yesterday, TUI reported that bookings for summer holidays are up 19% on pre-pandemic levels, despite household finances facing a squeeze from surging inflation. It reported that a total of 3.5 million customers had booked a trip for summer 2022 as of 30 January, with new bookings helping group sales recover to 100% of 2019 levels.

Complicated rules putting off travellers. The BBC reports that ‘many UK families have cancelled half-term trips to mainland Spain and the Canary Islands because children over 12 must be double vaccinated to enter.’ It says ‘hoteliers in the islands say the restrictions have lost them millions of pounds’ worth of trade.’

Lyft yesterday reported full year numbers yesterday saying that Q4 revenue rose 70% to $969.9 million. The company still lost $1 billion in 2021 as a whole (compared with a loss of $1.8 billion in the prior year). The company says that Omicron will impact Q1 this year.

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A survey by research firm BVA BDRC has found that consumer confidence in overseas travel dipped in December and early January with the return of restrictions due to the Omicron variant but did not fall back to the level of summer 2021. The proportion comfortable to take an overseas holiday was down by six percentage points on October at -33, but six points better than in July and August and a 22-point improvement on January 2021.

OTHER LEISURE:

Peloton has announced plans to drastically cut costs including 2,800 job losses. Following a downturn in performance, the CEO is also leaving the business. The firm has experienced a dramatic fall in sales since gyms reopened, tougher competition and bad PR following the death of a child.

Hasbro has beat analysts’ expectations in its quarterly results, boosted by demand for toys based on the latest Spider-Man movie. However, shares fell on the warning of surging freight and raw material costs pinching profit margins for most of this year.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Sterling higher at $1.3554 and €1.1864. Oil price lower at $90.91. UK 10yr gilt yield up 8bps at 1.50%. World markets better yesterday (thought London was lower) & the UK set to open up around 61pts as at 7.15am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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