Beer sales, delivery, jobs market, insolvencies, Coke, Pepsi, Twitter etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Don’t you ever have just one of those days?

You know, your computer’s battery’s flat, the cable’s damaged, it just needs a tweak but your tools are in the shed, you can’t find your shoes, one of the laces has snapped etc.?

Because I do and, either my patience is getting shorter or they’re coming around more frequently because it seems to be a more regular feeling like, last weekend, when the power went off.

First thing? Check you’re not the only one because, if you are, your both literally and mentally on your own but, if you can find the website & it tells you that 500 houses are off, at least you’ll get some attention.

But you’re laptop’s flat, your phone’s on 8%, the Wi-Fi is off, you’ve ran out of data etc., etc. and then, to add insult to injury, you get a text from Powergrid, that you just know has been written by a bot saying ‘with this type of power cut we normally restore power to 90% of customers withing 90 minutes…’

Which is like saying 70% of people hit by a vehicle at 30mph ‘normally’ don’t die. Your first thoughts are ‘normally’?? and then you consider the other 30% before concluding that a round 100% of the recipients of a tonne of speeding metal probably wish it hadn’t happened.

Anyway, it’s the end of the week so, without further ado, let’s move on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

The British Beer and Pub Association has reported that some 1.4 billion fewer pints were sold in 2021 when compared with 2019. It says sales were ‘still down 38% last year against pre-pandemic levels.’ It says some £5.7 billion of revenue from beer sales alone was lost to the on-trade last year. It concedes that ‘the figures are an improvement from 2020 where trading was down 55% compared with 2019.’

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Supply issues (and inflation).

Delivery costs are reported to be rising markedly. The Guardian reports ‘despite recent falls in cargo shipping prices, the world’s largest shipping companies have been reporting extraordinary rises in annual profits in recent months. Logistics analysts are forecasting that average shipping costs could reach levels never seen before, while disruption to international shipping will continue.’

Labour supply.

The REC Report on Jobs for January has confirmed that the UK labour market remains buoyant with job growth still a feature. It does say, however, that it will be ‘important to monitor how… the job market respond(s) to the competing pressures being felt by both businesses and candidates.’

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Hospitality Rising is to be the face of the industry’s recruitment campaign to help fill what may be up to 400,000 vacancies across the industry. Hospitality Rising says ‘we see this approval as a call to action for industry colleagues to come together and get behind the campaign, not just emotionally but, importantly, financially too, as we seek to build a campaign war-chest.’

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Business failures:

Cork Gully comments on insolvencies, saying that there were 14,913 of them in 2021. This was up by ‘11% compared to the 13,443 insolvencies recorded in 2020 but still 20% lower than the 18,580 recorded in 2019.’ It says ‘looking ahead we expect corporate insolvencies to be at around 20,000 in 2022, with a 20% rise in insolvencies forecast between Q1 and Q2 as pressures on businesses are set to rise in April.’

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Data from Lumina Intelligence shows that the UK restaurant sector is expected to recover to 94% of its 2019 value in 2022, reaching a valuation of £17.8bn. Unrestricted trading would be the main market driver in 2022, so recovery would be contingent on no further trading restrictions being brought in.

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IGD has commented on the food-to-go market saying that ‘technology, delivery, format innovation and product development have all played a significant role in the sector’s recovery.’

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COMPANY & OTHER NEWS:

The private equity owner of Brasserie Bar Co, Alchemy, has set a target of 70 sites over the next five years. Alchemy also owns the Inn Collection Group. Brasserie Bar Co chairman Mark Derry told the MCA that ‘[Alchemy] has got a lot of experience with pubs, particularly freehold, and particularly with rooms, and these are areas that we have never been involved in, so I am really quite excited about looking at that opportunity’.

Pernod Ricard reports sales up 17% to €5.96bn, owing largely to favourable foreign currency effects linked mainly to the strength of US Dollar and Chinese Yuan vs. Euro.

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Delivery Hero delivered a ‘slightly disappointing’ Q4 update, with Citi saying that the figures represent a 1% GMV and revenue miss for 2021 and an 11% miss on EBITDA. As of Thursday, shares in the company were down 29% to €47.19.

Coca Cola and Pepsi both reported Q4 numbers last night and both were able to report higher sales but saw pressure on profits. Both mentioned growth via price increases and they said that costs were on the rise.

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Oakman Group has updated on funding saying it is ‘delighted to announce that they have completed a £29m refinance of its freehold estate with Cynergy Bank of £18m.’ Steven Kenee, Chief Investment Officer, says that the ‘transaction significantly reduces our cost of capital, simplifies our corporate structure, and further strengthens the foundations from which our ambitious plans for the group will grow.’

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JW Lees has reported that it will this week ‘unveil the newly refurbished Stanneyland’s Hotel in Wilmslow after a ground floor refurbishment of the reception, bar and restaurant as well as exterior landscaping works.’ It adds that, at the end of February [it] will open its first new-build pub restaurant for over ten years, The Aviator at Woodford Aerodrome, and then at the end of March JW Lees will re-open The Red Lion in Withington which the company purchased in February 2020 just as the UK went into lockdown.’ MD William Lees-Jones says it ‘feels good to be back opening new pubs again after so long and we have 25 significant developments planned on our existing estate of 143 pubs this year.  We also have ambitions to grow our estate by acquisition and are actively looking for freehold hotels, inns and pubs in the North West.’

LEISURE TRAVEL & HOTELS:

ETC research has revealed that almost two thirds of Europeans remain optimistic about travelling between January-June. Intra-European trips remain the preferred choice for half of people looking to travel before the summer peak. However, quarantine measures remain a major concern to travel around Europe (18%), followed by rising Covid-19 cases at the destination (15%) and potential changes in travel restrictions (14%).

Holiday demand:

Data from flight analytics firm ForwardKeys shows that sun and beach destinations are leading demand for holidays from the UK with Easter recovery stronger than February half-term. The five destinations which saw the strongest recovery in January were: Mexico, 72% up on 2019; The Maldives, 54% up; Greece, 22% up; Cyprus, 20% up; and Barbados, 16% up.

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The CAA announces that Get Me To The Alps has ceased trading, saying ‘The financial protection remains in place with TTA Travel ATOL T7173. All customers should direct their queries to TTA Travel.’

Manchester Airports Group has said that relaxations to testing should boost sales but it says that January was hit by Omicron. Passenger numbers in January were down 63.1% on the same month in 2019, considerably behind numbers in the autumn. MAG says that the February half-term should be one of its busiest periods relative to pre-pandemic times since Covid appeared on the scene.

The WTTC has suggested that the UK travel and tourism sector could contribute some £192bn to the economy this year, down around 19% on pre-pandemic levels.

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The Scottish government is to pay some £3.5 million in support funding to outbound travel agents north of the border. It is also making some £7.5 million available for inbound operators.

STR reports that US hotel occupancy rose to 50.4% in the week to 5 Feb. It says average rate was down 1.2% and REVPAR was down some 16.8% on 2019 levels.

The 15th hotel webinar organised by consultancy HVS, legal expert Bird & Bird, publishing group EP Business in Hospitality and restructuring advisory firm AlixPartners predicts that London’s hotel market will return to pre-pandemic performance levels but is unlikely to return to growth until at least 2024/25.

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Gravity Activity Entertainment is set to add a £2m e-karting experience to Xscape Yorkshire, increasing the size of the site by 24,000 sq ft. 

Trades union Unite has said that the dispute involving 400 workers at Heathrow has been called off after the workers concerned received a “substantial” pay offer.

OTHER LEISURE:

The Telegraph reports that the Gambling Commission is set to recommend to the PM that Camelot should retain the licence to operate the National Lottery. Should Camelot win this round of bidding, it will hold the licence until 2034.

News of the Gambling Commission’s recommendation is likely to spark last-ditch efforts by Allwyn Entertainment, a gambling operator controlled by the Czech energy billionaire Karel Komarek. Two other bids, one from the Italian lottery operator Sisal and another from media mogul Richard Desmond have also been submitted.

Sting has followed other recording artists in selling his back catalogue to a music major. Universal Music has bought the catalogue for an undisclosed amount.

City AM reports that administrators have been called in to Digme Fitness, a chain that has been backed in the past by chancellor Rishi Sunak’s wife. Digme Fitness has eight gyms and has filed notice of its intention to appoint administrators. The company had previously said ‘having hunkered down and re-examined the cost base during the crisis, we expect to exit the pandemic stronger as a business, and, as with every crisis, there will be many opportunities for bargain growth opportunities that will arise.’ It would appear that this has not happened quickly enough to stave off problems.

Twitter yesterday reported disappointing numbers with an annual loss of $221m. The company reported some 217 million daily active users over the last three months of 2021, a little down on Wall Street estimates of 218.5 million.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Data from the ONS shows that UK GDP fell 0.2% in December due to the Omicron variant. This is a somewhat smaller decrease than had been feared. The BCC says ‘while UK GDP growth held steady in the fourth quarter, the resilient headline figure masks a loss of momentum in the quarter from a strong November outturn to a fall in output in December as Omicron suffocated activity.’ The decrease was not shared equally across sectors.

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The Bureau of Labour Statistics has reported that inflation in the US, as measured by the CPI, rose to 7.5% in January, the highest level since 1982.

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UK exports into Germany fell by 8.5% last year on the back of Brexit problems. Exports from other EU countries into Germany rose by 16.8% on the year. Imports into Germany from the non-EU country of China rose by 20.8%.

Sterling better at $1.3531 and €1.1883. Oil price lower at $90.61. UK 10yr gilt yield up 10bps at 1.53%. World markets better in Europe but turning down elsewhere yesterday. London set to open down some 72pts as at 7am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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