Fulham Shore, confidence, costs, BrewDog, SBUX, Sodexo, B King etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

A full-on, London week for Langton this week after a hybrid one last time down.

That because we had to come back up to Yorkshire for a school teacher-evening mid-week, the first face to face one for a couple of years, one that nobody told me about until I’d booked my trains and one that proved, if proof be needed, that teachers, even after all these years, still have the power to put the wind up me.

Not that they’re likely to rap me on the knuckles (like Sister Mary Stigmata, a.k.a. The Penguin in The Blues Brothers) or oblige me to say ten Hail Mary’s or stay back after school but those reproving looks still do it for me, even when they’re trying to be friendly and constructive.

But no, they’re a good bunch and, to the extent that they have any input into grades this year, they’re maybe peerless and wonderful.

Anyway, whilst there aren’t a huge amount of scheduled announcements or meetings this week, events are sure to intrude. On to the news:

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FULHAM SHORE – FY TRADING UPDATE:

The Fulham Shore has today updated on trading for its year to end-March and our comments are set out below:

Headline numbers:

• The Fulham Shore has updated on trading for the year ended 27 March 2022 saying that ‘following the removal of all restrictions in February 2022, customers have continued to return to the Group’s restaurants in increasing numbers.’

• The company says ‘during the second half of the financial year both Franco Manca and The Real Greek businesses delivered strong underlying performances.’

• It adds ‘this was achieved despite periods of disruption, including the UK government’s guidance to work from home due to the Omicron variant.’

• The company says it is ‘still considering formulating a dividend policy during the coming financial year, reflecting the Board’s continued confidence in the outlook for Fulham Shore.’

Costs:

• FUL says ‘input costs rose throughout the year due to increased transportation costs, raw materials and the impact of Covid-19 disruption.’

• Critically, FUL adds ‘these were mitigated through small price increases and generated better results than the Board had previously anticipated at the half year.’

Results:

• FUL says that strong trading and new openings ‘drove a significant increase in revenue, comparable with the levels seen pre COVID-19.’

• The co says ‘as a result, the Board expects to report that revenue, EBITDA and Adjusted Headline EBITDA for the financial year ended 27 March 2022 will be ahead of last year’s figures and comfortably ahead of market expectations.’

• The group says it believes that market expectations for the year ending 27 March 2022 are currently revenue of £73.4m, EBITDA of £16.5m and Adjusted Headline EBITDA of £9.5m.

Cash and bank

• FUL says that it has moved to (pre-IFRS16) net cash of £4m at its year end against a net debt position a year earlier of £3.6m. It has undrawn bank facilities of £15.9m.

Continued expansion:

• Fulham Shore says it has ‘made excellent progress against its UK expansion plans by opening 10 new restaurants’ in the year under review. It says three The Real Greek restaurants opened in H2 and says they ‘were received very well by customers and have enjoyed strong trading momentum since opening.’

• The company now has two franchised units in Athens, Greece.

• FUL says that ‘planned openings have been and will continue to be financed primarily by internally generated cash flow. It should be noted the Group improved its cash balance through this financial year despite opening 10 restaurants.’

Current trading and outlook

• The company says that has one The Real Greek and five Franco Mancas in development and says ‘the Group continues to secure desirable sites at favourable rents, supported by high vacancy rates and lower rents than at the peak levels seen in 2019.’

• It adds ‘19 proposed new Franco Manca sites are in legal negotiations and are planned to open in the summer and autumn of 2022. The Real Greek is also in legal negotiations for 5 new sites around the country.’

• Re costs, FUL says the general rise ‘presents challenges for all operators within the sector. In addition, the reduced VAT rate and hospitality business rates relief both ended on 1 April 2022. Thanks to its brands’ affordable, value-for-money proposition, the Group is well placed to offset these increased costs through increased menu pricing, which, when they occur, will be implemented to cover costs rather than increase margin.’

Company conclusion:

• The company says ‘as customer numbers continue to grow and trading continues to be robust, the Group plans to open around 18 new restaurants across both brands in the financial year ending March 2023 and will review this opening programme at the half year.’

• It concludes it is ‘very encouraged by the strong performance achieved by the Group during FY22 and underpinned by its two relevant businesses, their value-for-money propositions and the clear growth opportunities, remains confident of its exciting potential.’

Langton comment:

• We have consistently reminded ourselves that hospitality has been around for millennia and it has survived fire, flood, pestilence, war & famine.

• It has survived through recessions and depressions and there is no reason to think that it will not survive whatever might befall it as a result of the cost of living crisis.

• All of which means there will be winners as well as losers. There will always be relative winners, even in the worst of markets and, we would suggest, there will also be absolute winners.

• Fulham Shore looks as though it should be amongst the latter. It has an authentic product, enthusiastic & well-motivated staff and well-located sites. It has grown its delivery business materially and has a healthy balance sheet and a well-defined pipeline of new openings.

• Openings have been financed by internal cash flow, debt has been extinguished, unused facilities are there if more sites become available and the group is considering paying a dividend.

• The group is performing strongly and will ‘comfortably’ beat market expectations. The opportunity for new sites has rarely been this good as competition for sites is reduced, rents are coming down and inducements from landlords are there to be had.

• Build costs and operating costs are on the rise but the company is raising prices to account for this. Notably, it is maintaining cash rather than percentage margins and its customers are likely to appreciate this.

• The group looks like a winner. The new capital from finance-house backed operators, which might have been sucked into a recovering sector could well hesitate in this market. Meanwhile, FUL continues to walk the walk and to deliver on its potential.

PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Consumer confidence:

With the cost of living crisis all over the news, it is hardly surprising that consumer confidence has taken a bit of a knock. Accountant PwC has reported a ‘significant and sustained drop-off in consumer sentiment has led to the biggest one-year decline in confidence since the global financial crisis.’ The number is minus 20, down 26 pts on the last survey a quarter ago.

It adds ‘with inflation driving a growing divergence between demographic groups, the cost of living crisis sees post-pandemic pent-up demand in discretionary spending all but evaporate.’ It says the difference between the situation now and the state of affairs when the last survey was undertaken a year earlier, in March 2021, is stark. PwC says the earlier survey ‘showed the highest levels of consumer confidence since our survey began in 2008, with improvements across every age group and demographic. We even saw upturned category spending intentions, as discretionary categories – including leisure, pleasure and fashion – were prioritised over grocery and the home.’

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Costs:

Amidst all of the talk of energy price cap rises & the increase in VAT, it’s worth pointing out that the National Living Wage (NLW) and the National Minimum Wage (NMW) both increased from last Friday.

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Drink categories:

As always, certain drinks are performing better than others. CGA reports that world lager ‘was the biggest market share gainer in 2021 compared to 2019.’ It says ‘consumers looked to trade up their usual lager choices as a reward after months of lockdown.’ This may come under a bit of pressure now that the cost of living crisis is beginning to bite.

Tenanted pubs.

The Pub Governing Body has ‘welcomed enhancements made to the Codes of Practice’ saying that the Codes apply to pub companies operating less than 500 tied pubs in England & Wales. The recommendations include a suggestion that a record should be kept of meetings with BDMs as well as a recommendation that permanent rent concessions or other discounts should be documented.

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Prices in the US.

A survey undertaken by the US Chamber of Commer3ce finds that 67% of small businesses have raised prices during the past 12 months. It adds that 85% are concerned about the persistence of the highest inflation. Not surprising results.

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Staying in the US, the Bureau of Labour Statistics reports that restaurant job growth slowed in Q1. The leisure and hospitality industry nonetheless added 112,000 jobs in March whilst foodservices and drinking establishments added 61,000 jobs and hotels added 25,000.

COMPANY NEWS:

The Mail on Sunday reports that BrewDog chairman Allan Leighton has suggested that ‘Berlin-based human resources consultancy Hand & Heart that had offered to help mediate with disgruntled staff.’ The Mail says Mr Leighton believes that advisor added fuel to the fire and asked for payment of a fee of £100,000 for its contribution.

Starbucks’ latest figures confirm that its EMEA division has returned to profit with total EMEA revenues for the year to 3 October 2021 up 41% at $237m. The division has swung from a $74m loss in 2020 to an operating profit of $40.5m last year.

Sodexo on Friday reported H1 numbers saying that revenue had risen by 19.4% to €10.3bn. The underlying operating profit was up 103% at €538m. Chair Sophie Bellon says ‘revenue growth and margins improvement have been strong in this First half, reflecting the solid recovery in Education, Corporate Services and Sports & Leisure segments. Omicron did have an impact on the recovery in the second quarter, but we are seeing a pick-up since the end of February.’

The MCA reports that Burger King UK is set to open a “significant number” of new restaurants in 2022. CEO Alasdair Murdoch says ‘alongside drive thru, we’re beginning to look back onto the High Street.’

Diageo is ‘making a £40.5m investment to expand capacity at its packaging facilities [in its beer business] in Belfast, Northern Ireland and Runcorn, England, which is set to support the growth of Guinness Draught and Guinness Zero.’

The Guardian reports that ‘Pizza Express waiting staff have won back a bigger slice of their tips after a year-long campaign against a change that handed more to kitchen staff.’ Staff were backed by the Unite union. The move reverses a change that had earlier handed more of the tips to kitchen staff.

The MCA reports that Meat Liquor is to open two new sites in London in the next 6mths.

London food tech startup Growth Kitchen has announced £3m in seed funding from a group of strategic investors led by PactVC.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

The Sunday Times reports that Whitbread is ‘preparing for its chief executive to step down after seven years, with the finance director of advertising giant WPP among early contenders to replace her.’ Alison Brittain has been CEO since 2015.

The Mail on Sunday reports that ‘Alison Brittain has come under fire for her deferred £729,000 bonus, which was delayed last year amid uproar from shareholders, politicians and activists. She defied calls to scrap the bonus entirely, despite huge losses and taxpayer support.’ It points out ‘her company has claimed around £370million from taxpayers in furlough cash and business rates relief – none of which has been paid back.’

Carnival is reported to be facing a backlash from shareholders as CEO Arnold Donald has been given package that could be worth up to $15million. The company was a major beneficiary of furlough payments from the government and it received covid loans.

Delays at baggage reclaim at Manchester Airport have been blamed on a shortage of staff.

The Airport Operators Association has warned that there could be longer than usual queues at other airports over Easter due to staff shortages.

Advantage Travel Partnership has reported that Easter holiday bookings are almost back to pre-pandemic levels.

TUI plans to carry 1.5 million holidaymakers to Turkey this summer, will capacity up across all source markets vs 2019.

The Insolvency Service is reported to have launched criminal and civil investigations into behaviour of P&O with regard to its recent round of redundancies.

EasyJet is reported to have cancelled more than 200 flights over the weekend due to a lack of staff. Some 222 trips have been cut since Friday.

OTHER LEISURE:

Camelot is reported to be taking legal action against the Gambling Commission after losing the next license to operate the National Lottery.

Alibaba is to invest $60 million in augmented reality company Nreal.

Tesla reports it delivered a record number of its cars in Q1 this year.

Donald Trump’s Truth Social is reported to be ‘beset by problems’.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Markit reported the PMI for the UK manufacturing industry in March on Friday saying that the sector recorded a slowdown in growth. The index slipped to a 13mth low of 55.2 compared with 58.0 in February. The flash number was 55.5.

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The EU is to launch its first challenge against the UK at the World Trade Organization alleging unfair practises when awarding wind farm subsidies.

Writing in the Sunday Times, David Smith says that ‘the UK’s trade deficit in January was easily the biggest on record, at a huge £26.5 billion for goods, and £16.2 billion for goods and services taken together.’

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US businesses added 431,000 jobs in March, the 15th month of gains in a row. Unemployment is now 3.6%.

The Telegraph reports that, whilst UK GDP is close to pre-pandemic levels, the private sector has slowed whilst the public sector, including healthcare, continues to grow.

Sterling mixed at $1.3116 and €1.187. Oil a shade higher at $104.58. UK 10yr gilt yield down 1bp at 1.62%. World markets better on Friday & London set to open up around 34pts as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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