March Tracker, consumer confidence, WFH, AB InBev, XPF, Carlsberg etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Don’t you sometimes feel as though you’re working alternately for the tax authorities and for other quangos such as the FCA, producing documents that, though unlikely to be read, would get you into hot water if you didn’t supply them?

Because, groan, we do.

Anyway, it’s the end of a short but long-feeling week. The sun looks as though it’s trying to shine, so it just remains to say have a great weekend and on to the news:

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COFFER CGA BUSINESS TRACKER – MARCH.

The most recent Coffer Peach Business Tracker concludes that the UK pub & restaurant industry ‘achieved solid growth from pre-COVID-19 levels in March’. However, the Tracker concedes that, with three years’ price increases in there, the difference between real and monetary performances is widening. It says ‘with high inflation hitting both margins and spending, hospitality’s recovery from COVID-19 remains fragile.’

Overall numbers:

• 4% like-for-like growth vs 2019 compares with the 3% growth seen in February and the 1% fall experienced in January.

Different cohorts:

• Bars, which tend to be wet-led, performed best in March with like-for-like sales growth of 8% ‘as consumers continue to seek high tempo and experiential visits’. Later-night venues have been the amongst the last to return to normality & a degree of novelty may be at play.

• The Tracker reports ‘restaurants were close behind with 6% growth, thanks in large part to flourishing delivery sales, while pubs were up 2%.’

• The point re delivery is well-made. Restaurants grew this markedly during lockdown and will now not want to surrender it. Pubs were largely unable to follow suit.

Geographies:

• The Tracker reports that ‘trading in London continues to lag well behind other parts of the country’. It says that, in London, ‘like-for-like sales inside the M25 in March were flat, compared to 6% growth beyond the M25.’

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

UK consumer confidence nears record low:

GfK has released its UK consumer confidence report for April saying that ‘consumer confidence [is] in freefall as Index crashes seven points in April to minus 38.’ It says that the headline score is just one point off its lowest on record. It says ‘all five measures were down in comparison to the March 25th announcement.’ GfK’s Joe Staton says ‘the cost crunch is really hitting the pockets of UK consumers and the headline confidence score has dropped to a near historic low.’

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WFH:

The EU is asking householders and workers to drive less and potentially to work from home three days a week in order to reduce reliance on Russian energy. Should such advice spread to the UK, it might lead to a stalling in what is already a hesitant return to the office.

Trading:

Barclaycard Payments, which measures spending on plastic and which doesn’t therefore make any adjustment to reflect the decline in the use of cash, has reported that Easter bank holiday spend was up by 74%. This will come as news to most operators although, clearly, the use of plastic over the bank holiday could have been up by that much.

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Food prices:

The World Bank has warned that there could be a ‘human catastrophe’ as a result of current upheavals in the food market. it says food prices are up by 37% across some categories and it says that the impact is magnified for poorer people as they spend a higher proportion of their income on food.

Other:

Bloomberg Intelligence has suggested that plant-based foods could grow to a more than $162 billion market in 2020. Burger King is launching an “Even More Confusing Times” campaign to imply that its meatless meat tastes (almost) as much like meat as meat does.

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COMPANY NEWS:

Further withdrawal from Russia. Anheuser-Busch InBev has said it ‘will sell its non-controlling interest in the AB InBev Efes joint venture and is in active discussions with its partner, Turkish Brewer Anadolu Efes, to acquire this interest.’

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XP Factory Plc (formerly Escape Hunt) has announced that it has made significant progress in its opening programme for its Boom Battle Bars.

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Neat Burger, which includes Lewis Hamilton among its investors, is to open its first US site in New York.

Carlsberg has updated on the hit it believes it will take as a result of its decision to exit its Russian business. It says ‘the divestment of the Russian business may take up to 12 months and will have multiple implications.’ It says re 2022 earnings expectation, the company had suspended its outlook but now says it can reinstate this. It says it believes it will see this year organic operating profit development of around minus 5% to plus 2%. It says ‘fully excluding the Ukrainian business in 2021 and 2022, the above guidance would change to: Organic operating profit development of around minus 1% to plus 7%.’

Nestle has said that rising costs will force it to raise prices again this calendar year. The maker of KitKat chocolate bars and Nespresso coffee capsules says sales in Q1 rose by 7.6%. it says ‘cost inflation continues to increase sharply, which will require further pricing and mitigating actions over the course of the year.’

Petrol forecourt business EG Group, whose owners, the Issa Brothers, now own ASDA, has said it will create 32,000 jobs globally over the next five years, most of them in the UK. It says most of the jobs will be added in its bakery chain Cooplands and in Leon, both of which it bought in 2021.

Tim Horton’s is to open its first site in London. it reports it will ‘continue its rapid expansion throughout the UK, with plans to open its first restaurant in the capital and double its estate across the country by the end of 2023.’

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HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Travel Weekly reports that travel over Easter was easier than might have been feared. It says that there were fewer delays than expected. It quotes the Advantage Travel Partnership as saying ‘generally, feedback from members over the weekend is that customers have sailed through, but some have had issues.’

Spain has relaxed its requirement for face masks to be worn indoors. The UK Foreign Office website says there is still a recommendation to wear masks in ‘enclosed public spaces such as shops, cinemas, bars and restaurants, at large events (e.g. concerts, sporting events), when in the company of people considered clinically vulnerable or high-risk and social distancing of 1.5m cannot be observed, at family gatherings, in any other enclosed communal spaces open to the public.’

City AM reported yesterday on ‘reports coming in that Spanish authorities are refusing entry to British nationals trying to enter the country from Gibraltar.’ It says ‘authorities at the border with Gibraltar demanded to see hotel reservations and evidence of onward travel, such as a return ticket or train reservation. Those who were unable to do so were refused entry into Spain.’

The WTTC reports that, if its recovery continues, travel and tourism will create almost 126 million new jobs globally in the next ten years. The sector could exceed its pre-pandemic peak by 2023 and is expected to recover to around $8.4 trillion – or 86.7% of its 2019 size – by the end of this year.

European aviation traffic levels are running at around 80% of 2019 levels.

The National Audit Office reports that around £400 million of taxpayers’ money was spent on government hotel quarantine restrictions. It says only 2% of passengers from red list countries tested positive for Covid-19.

Sonder Holdings Inc., whose shares are listed on NASDAQ, has said that it will open four new hotels in London. The company says ‘as a high-growth global hospitality company, we are excited to expand our unique design and tech-powered hospitality offering across the United Kingdom & Ireland.’

OTHER LEISURE:

Elon Musk is reported to have raised $46.5bn towards his bid for Twitter. The money comprises $21bn of his own money with the rest coming in debt.

CNN is reported to be shutting its streaming service only weeks after its launch.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Sterling down at $1.3024 and €1.2008. Oil lower at $107.19. UK 10yr gilt yield up 6bps at 1.98%. world markets heading lower yesterday and London set to open around 91pts lower as at 7am.

Consumer confidence numbers, see Pubs & Restaurants above.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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