Footfall, sales, WFH, property mergers, McColl, flight shortages etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

My finger nails look unacceptably dirty at the moment.

But that, I would claim in my defence, is not down to some inexplicable refusal to wash but rather down to a superglue accident (which can only happen to idiots and) which resulted in me gluing various fingernails to the ends of the fingers from which they sprang with the result that they’ve been very effectively picking up dust, fluff and other random muck and then refusing to let it all go.

Which is what it is but, on the bright side, now that my fingerprints have been temporarily obscured, now would be a good time to pull of some heist or other – if only I could be sure that I wouldn’t glue myself to some immovable object in the process.

We’ve reintroduced Start the Day towards the bottom of the email. It features Start the Day with a Song (back after its Covid shutdown), along with Quotey McQuoteface, a Quote (& general knowledge) quiz. A Little Birdie Told Us (interesting stuff whispered in our shell-like) along with Yesterday’s Tweets (which does what it says on the tin).

Anyway, Hull City managed to draw 1-1 at the weekend with both goals coming in extra time. That must have caught a few early leavers on the hop.

It’s one of those shocking, five day weeks this week so, without further ado, let’s move on to the news.

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Footfall & sales:

S4labour reports that hospitality sales during April increased by 3.7% on 2019 levels (pre-Covid-19).’ That is good news as far as it goes but, with inflation at current levels, it represents a material real decrease.

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CGA’s Drinks Recovery Tracker shows sales value up 0.4% in the week to 30 April, boosted by a bright start to the bank holiday weekend. Beer value sales were down 3% compared to 2019 and wine volume sales were down 11%. Spirit volume sales, however, were up 16% on 2019 levels.

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Working from home:

FTSE250 property company Derwent London says ‘London’s back, the buzz is back.’ CEO Paul Williams says that companies are increasingly willing to pay higher rents for leases.

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Employment trends:

Bizimply data has shown that ‘hospitality employees are working around six hours a week longer than before the pandemic.’ Taking March 2020 as the baseline, the data shows: Employees are now working an average of around 25 hours a week, compared to a pre-pandemic average of 19 hours a week; In food-led businesses, employees are working an average 28 hour week, compared to around 23 hours in wet-led businesses; Fine dining restaurants, which are among the worst affected by recruitment issues, are typically asking their staff to work 40-plus hours a week. Cafés and hotels are also seeing staff notch up longer than average weekly hours at work.’

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Wine:

KAM comments on wine-demand in the on-trade suggesting that some ‘42% of consumers would order a style of wine that they usually drink at home, 30% would always order the same style of wine when out and just 26% told us that they like to try new wines they’ve not had before.’

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Property market:

Sky reports that ‘Capital & Counties Properties…and Shaftesbury are in detailed discussions about an all-share tie-up that could be announced within weeks.’ It says the potential £3.5bn merger ‘would unite world-famous tourist destinations, including Covent Garden and Chinatown under common ownership.’

The BBC reports that ‘landlords in England could be forced to let empty shops in a bid to rejuvenate high streets’. The BRC says that as many as one in seven shops are currently empty.

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Other news:

Rising prices. The FT reports that ONS figures show that rising energy and raw material prices have hit the hospitality sector particularly hard. Official data showed that half of UK businesses reported an increase in the prices of materials, goods, or services bought in March, with one in five businesses reported their turnover decreased in March compared with the previous month.

Fish & chips. The Telegraph has quoted sources as suggesting that the cost of fish & chips could move from around £6.50 now to perhaps £10.00 at the end of the year due to rising costs. It quotes one operator as saying shops ‘have to charge what the ingredients are costing them, otherwise we just won’t be in business.’

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COMPANY NEWS:

Couche-Tard is in talks to merge with the UK’s EG Group. If the merger is successful, the new entity would operate around 20,000 retail, food & beverage and petrol station sites in 30 countries. Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. currently operates 14,200 convenience, quick service, and petrol station outlets in North America, Europe and Asia.

Oatly reports Q1 revenue of $166.2m, compared to $140.1m in Q1 2021. Oatly states that the revenue increase was the result of additional supply from the company’s new and existing facilities to meet growing global demand. However, Oatly reported lower than expected production output, as well as lower than expected sales in Asia as a result of Covid-19 closures.

Wingstop Inc president and CEO Michael Skipworth said its success in the UK market was focused on a heavy-off premise digital business with a premium positioning. Skipworth said ‘Our UK brand partner (Lemon Pepper Holdings) now operates 20 restaurants with 15 openings slated for 2022’.

Texas Roadhouse in the US, which recently put up prices by 3.2%, says ‘to date, we have not seen a negative mix or traffic reaction.’

McColl’s Retail Group collapsed into administration on Friday. It says its lenders would not extend debt covenant waivers and the company has appointed PwC as administrators. Morrison’s was said to be considering a rescue. Others suggest that the Issa Brothers have made an approach. In what may still not prove to be the end of the story, Morrison’s is said to have trumped this.

Ramen shop Bone Daddies is set to collaborate with New York ramen legend Ivan Ramen. The month-long collaboration, in partnership with Japan’s number one beer – Asahi Super Dry, will see the iconic ‘Breakfast Mazemen’ AKA ‘Breakfast Ramen’ brought to London for the very first time.

Gousto, the recipe box retailer, will open a £40m fulfilment centre at St. Modwen Park Burton. The 295,00 square foot bespoke facility will increase Gousto’s operational capacity by 40% and create hundreds of new jobs.

Per Christie & Co, 2022 has started strongly for  the country pub market across the Home Counties, with the company seeing a flurry of activity across Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Bedfordshire and Hertfordshire driven by retirements leading to sales.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Labour shortages:

EasyJet is reported to have removed a row of seats from some of its aircraft for the summer so that flights can be operated with fewer cabin crew. EasyJet has said that it is ‘building additional resilience and flexibility’. It says ‘this summer we will be operating our UK A319 fleet with a maximum of 150 passengers onboard and three crew in line with CAA regulations.’ Meanwhile, TUI has told passengers on many of its flights that they will have to take their own food and drink on board due to staff shortages.

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IAG expects to return to profit in Q2 on the back of a strong recovery in demand. Premium leisure has become the top performing segment with the easing of government-imposed travel restrictions, particularly in the UK, resulting in improved travel demand.

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A survey undertaken by European airports association ACI Europe has suggested that two-thirds of airports expect flight delays to worsen with a third of airports expecting this disruption to last beyond the summer.

OTHER LEISURE:

1Rebel plans to expand both in the UK and internationally, aiming to be ‘at the forefront of the [boutique fitness] sector’. The brand is taking its estate from nine to 12 clubs in London, with the acquisition of competitors Sweat It and Core Collective.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

In the US, employers added 428,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%, with the growth likely to bolster views at the US central bank that the economy is well positioned as it starts to raise rates to try to curb inflation.

Halifax reports average UK house prices up 1.1% in April, to £286,079. While it said prices had grown for 10 months in a row – the longest run since 2016 – it said “the headwinds facing the wider economy cannot be ignored” and predicted a slowdown.

The British Chambers of Commerce is calling for an immediate emergency budget to deal with the costs crises facing businesses and people throughout the country.

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Former Bank of England MPC member Andy Haldane has spoken to the Telegraph, saying that the Bank missed opportunities to tackle the cost of living crisis because it failed to act on inflation fast enough.

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The value of Bitcoin has halved since November.

Sterling weaker at $1.2283 and €1.1684. Oil up at $112.75. UK 10yr gilt yield back at near 8yr highs at 2.01% (up 5bps). World markets weaker on Friday & London set to open down around 65pts as at 6.30am.

START THE DAY…featuring:

• Start the day with a song. A welcome return after its Covid shutdown

• Quotey McQuoteface. Quote (& general knowledge) quiz

• A little birdie told us. Interesting stuff whispered in our shell-like.

• Yesterday’s tweets. What it says on the tin.

Start the Day with a Song:

• Kicking off Langton’s Music Quiz again – and realising that we never gave the answer to the question we posed way, way back in April 2020 when it was furloughed – who sang?

There’s a crazy old woman smashing bottles on the sidewalk,

Where her house burnt down two years ago

People say that back then, she wasn’t that crazy

Quotey McQuoteface:

• A relatively easy one to kick this off. Which evergreen but sadly deceased wag said:

The lack of money is the root of all evil…

A little birdie told us: Whispered in our shell-like:

• Casual dining London tourists ‘are back’. The West End is busy. Borough too. Less good re office workers. Mid-town (Holborn to Tottenham Court Road) is quiet. Langton comment. This is a) great but b) it might not be the case for every operator.

Friday’s tweets. Not much…

• Email. Intercontinental Hotels (Q1), US Q1s from Shake Shack, RCL, Papa Johns. UK consumer recession fears (growing), discounting (ditto) & WFH & more. Today’s e/m & sign up free www.langtoncapital.co.uk. #inflation #costoflivingcrisis #hospitality

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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