Coca Cola HBC, Various Eateries, surveys & stats, WFH, catering etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

It seems like only yesterday that we were celebrating what looks like the (almost certainly temporary) collapse in the number of rabbits that usually infest the scrubland that we call our garden.

Indeed, we’d taken to planting various tasty flowers that wouldn’t normally have had a chance to flourish given the voracious appetites of the leporids in question and said greenery did, indeed, flourish.

That is until the deer started hopping over what we call a fence but they apparently call a step and began proving to us beyond all doubt that a 30kg roe deer is capable of eating considerably more than is a 1.5kg rabbit.

And now, to add insult to floral injury, the not-so little beggars don’t even run off when challenged because, like the surly youth crossing the road in front of you, they’ve perfected that ‘yeah, is that all you got?’ look, before they turn to munch a couple more tulips and lodge a few more ticks in the long grass.

Charming, but anyway, we’ve reintroduced Start the Day. It’s on the right in bold (or at the bottom if you receive the Word version of this email). It features:

• Start the Day with a Song (back after its Covid shutdown. Suggestions, especially more recent releases, welcome),

• Quotey McQuoteface (a Quote & general knowledge quiz),

• A Little Birdie Told Us (interesting stuff whispered in our shell-like – comments & contributions welcome)

On to the news:

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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, GDP STATS…:

There’s no shortage of surveys out there. Many find what their sponsors want them to find but most are now consistently pointing to a sharp drop in consumer confidence.

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Working from home:

Messaging app Slack has surveyed 1,000 workers and reports that around two out of five are still concerned about returning to the office. This seems to be more about the ‘work-life’ balance rather than reflect Covid fears. Sir Alan Sugar recently got into a spat with PwC after the latter said that staff would be able to work shorter hours on Fridays over the summer.

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Contract catering:

CGA has updated on the sector saying that ‘sales in the contract catering sector remain well below pre-COVID-19 levels despite good year-on-year increases.’ This is a story that could be told across a host of hospitality sub-sectors. CGA says ‘sales from January to March 2022 were 69% higher than the first quarter of 2021, when the country was under lockdown restrictions.’

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Recovery:

IGD comments that ‘eating out will recover but it won’t look the same as it did.’ IGD’s Nicola Knight says ‘the pent-up demand that boosted the market when restrictions were lifted at intervals over the past two years will be less evident as this year progresses. With consumer confidence at a record low, the sector is facing continued challenges which means it must adapt.’

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Other news:

UKH has released the names of speakers at its summer conference saying that ‘alongside Government MPs and local mayors, other speakers include Sarah Willingham, former Dragon’s Den entrepreneur and founder of Nightcap; Luke Johnson, former chairman of Pizza Express and founder of sector investment firm Risk Capital Partners; Nisha Katona MBE, CEO, executive chef and development chef of Mowgli Street Food, and Suzanne Baker, Commercial & Property Director at Stonegate Group.’

The government in Ireland is reported set to extend the special nine per cent VAT rate for the hospitality sector beyond its current expiry date later this year.

The Scottish government is to consider permanently relaxing rules for outdoor seating.

In the US, the Bureau of Labour Statistics has reported that food prices rose by 9.4% in the year to April. The price of food at home was up by 10.8%. Prices for food away from home rose 0.6% in April, compared with the 0.3% rise in March.

COMPANY NEWS:

Coca Cola HBC has reported Q1 numbers saying that it has turned in a ‘strong performance despite [a] turbulent environment.’ It says that Q1 organic growth was 24.2% with organic revenue growth excluding Russia and Ukraine at plus 25.9%. It says it is seeing ‘ongoing strength in the Emerging segment despite tough comparatives.’

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Various Eateries updates on H1 trading to end-March saying that it has seen ‘robust trading with good progress in site roll-out strategy.’ The company says ‘apart from the duration of Covid-related ‘Plan B’ restrictions, which severely affected the normally busy Christmas period, trading over the first half was robust. Total Group revenue for the period was £17.8m, up 439% year-on-year (H1 FY21: £3.3m), driven by new site openings and reflecting fewer restricted periods of trading.’

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The Daily Mail reports that Pret is removing all chicken from its menus due to salmonella fears.

Moody’s reports that JDE Peet’s buy back of €500 million worth of its shares owned by Mondelez is credit negative.

The MCA reports that Ole & Steen is targeting 30 sites by the end of 2022. The Danish bakery business is due to open its 19th site this week on Neal Street in London’s Seven Dials district, with an opening in Clapham to follow.

Campari will acquire French bitter aperitif brand Picon from Diageo for around €119 million. With this deal the maker of Aperol and Campari bitters strengthens its position in France. 

Grosvenor announces that Boparan’s Slim Chickens will open in Liverpool ONE. Slim Chickens Liverpool ONE will be located on The Terrace, adjacent to Las Iguanas and Five Guys, and will encompass over 175 covers.

St Austell Brewery reports an underlying operating profit of £11.3m for the 52-weeks to 1 January 2022. Overall turnover increased by 33% to £156.6m, despite the closure of all of its pubs and hotels for the first four months of the financial year, with total revenue for its 180-strong Pubs, Inns & Hotels division increasing coming in at £62.6m.

Last week, over 80 Fuller’s team members managed to raise in excess of £25,000 for Fuller’s corporate charity, Special Olympics Great Britain.

Fuller’s has announced the return of Opera in the Garden.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

The latest report from the European Travel Commission forecasts international tourist arrivals to Europe to be 30% below pre-pandemic 2019 volumes this year. The fastest rebounds based on data to February were reported by Serbia (-11%) and Turkey (-12%). Western Europe is forecast to be the best performing region globally this year, albeit 24% below 2019 levels.

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Tui has said it believes that summer bookings will ‘almost reach’ 2019 levels this year, but was resolute in its stance that there will be ‘no last minute’ low price deals. The company said bookings had surged in the past six weeks after the easing of Covid travel restrictions. Tui’s losses halved to €614.5m (£525m) in the six months to March.

Bookaway secures $35m in its Series C funding. The Tel Aviv-based startup plans to scale up its ground transportation booking platform.

Irish Ferries increased costs will be passed on to travellers, the firm has said. The company has seen higher prices for fuel and charter rates in particular.

Face masks will no longer need to be worn on flights and in airports in EU countries from next Monday.

OTHER LEISURE:

Walt Disney last night reported Q1 numbers showing a jump in subscriber numbers for its relatively young Disney+ service. Parks performed strongly. Overall, revenues rose 23% from a year ago to $19.25bn.

Peloton’s share price fell by 20% in early trading after the company missed revenue targets, cut sales guidance and reported a bigger quarterly loss than anticipated. Peloton, whose market value has fallen by more than 80% over the last year, reported revenues of $964m (£780m), down from $1.26bn in the same quarter last year.

Yesterday, ITV reported revenues up 18% to £834m in Q1, but warned that revenues would be down in Q2 and Q3 as it annualises the European Football Championships. 

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The UK’s economy shrank by 0.1% in March with the services sector some 0.2% smaller. The stats show no growth in February and feeble growth for the sector as a whole.

The rate of inflation in the US fell, as expected, between March and April (from 8.5% to 8.3%). This has prompted some bulls to call ‘peak inflation’ whilst others have hung back or pointed to specific pockets of inflation such as food prices, which were up by 9.4%, the largest yearly rise in over 40yrs. The UK reports labour & wage stats next Tuesday with inflation numbers coming out on Wednesday.

Inflation in Germany, meanwhile, edged up from 7.3% in March to 7.4% in April. Although the rate is below that in the US, energy prices are a bigger deal in Europe than they are on the other side of the Atlantic.

Consumer prices in China in the year to April rose by a relatively modest 2.1%, the highest rate since the 2.3% recorded last November.

Sterling down at $1.2211 and €1.1604. Oil price higher at $$105.94. UK 10yr gilt yield up 2bps at 1.87%. World markets heading lower yesterday and London set to open some 116pts lower as at 7.15am.

YESTERDAY’S TWEETS:

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RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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