YNGA (f/year), MAB & MARS, Gym group, Time Out, Fever Tree etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

With inflation all over the news, I stopped to consider spot prices, contracts and the like yesterday, and focused on our heating bill.

Because we just filled up our oil tank and, for those not already acutely financially aware of the fact, there is no energy cap on heating oil.

Over the years, that should level out because any fixed price should only smooth the cost rather than raise or lower it (unless the politicians get involved) but it does mean that those not on mains gas, all things being equal, feel fuel price rises (and in Covid-times, fuel price cuts) ahead of those who have payments smoothed by the price cap.

Here’s what the same volume of fuel cost us recently:

• 2020: £660, £527

• 2021: £763, £731, £1,015

• 2022: £1,015, £1,519

That’s a) not a shock but b) it’s still a shock – and it’s what everyone will be feeling shortly.

The oil company is embarrassed but powerless. They’re worried about bad debts, probably. The electricity companies will be likewise rather concerned. Expect a lot of ‘welfare phone calls’ if you forget to pay a bill for a week or two.

Anyway, still busy day with numbers after a hectic day yesterday. On to the news:

LANGTON EMAIL:

The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade.

See Twitter for in-day comment. Let us know if you would like an example of the Premium Email or to comment on the new format.

Prices for the Premium are £345 for one subscription, £595 for multiple, both plus VAT. Reply to this email to order & request invoice.

Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option HERE

YOUNG & CO – FULL YEAR RESULTS:

Young & Co has reported full year results and our comments thereon are set out below:

Trading

• YNGA reports revenues of £309.0m against £88.0m last year. The adjusted profit before tax is £41.8m (2021: loss £43.2m) and net debt has been reduced to £173.8m, down from £248.7m last year.

• The company reports basic EPS of 58.8p (2021: loss per share 66.6p) with a reinstated dividend of 18.81p (2021: nil). The group reports that assets per share are up to £11.97 (2021: £11.04).

• Young & Co reports that ‘managed house sales were up 2.9% on the two-year (2020) comparative.’ It says this is ‘despite battling against varying levels of restrictions and Christmas trade being significantly impacted by the Omicron variant.’

• Most recently ‘sales in the final quarter bounced back strongly and, re current sales, the group says ‘since the period end [these] have performed extremely well, with managed house revenue for the last 13 weeks, against the pre-pandemic levels of 2019, up 17.0% and for the last 5 weeks versus a year ago up 38.5%.’

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.

MARSTON’S H1 ANALYSTS’ MEETING YESTERDAY:

Following the release of its H1 numbers, Marston’s hosted a meeting for analysts and our comments thereon are set out below:

Trading overview:

• Trading is ‘stable’. There are growing signs of a return to normality. For example, the ‘monthly cycle’ is returning with regulars more likely to come out after payday and less so in the run up to it.

• Also, sequentially, trading period have improved (ex-Omicron). The most recent period is marginally positive (equivalent to +4% given the increase in VAT).

• Footfall is down by ‘double digits’. Given that sales are broadly level with 2019, the eventual return of absent customers represents something of an opportunity going forward.

Trading & costs:

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.

MITCHELLS & BUTLERS – H1 ANALYSTS’ MEETING YESTERDAY:

Following the release of its H1 numbers yesterday, Mitchells & Butlers hosted a meeting for analysts and our comments are set out below:

Trading:

• In common with Marston’s, M&B reported that trading improved sequentially (ex-Omicron) during H1. And it has moved higher still in the first few weeks of H2. It is up by 2.2% in the last 5wks (better still, ex the impact of the VAT rise).

• Cites are still underperforming – but the gap is narrowing. Ditto London.

• Spend is up and volume is down. The company says, tellingly, that ‘the next few years could be uncertain and volatile’.

Costs, prices & inflation:

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.

INFLATION:

It’s all over the news and all over this email, but we’ll keep it brief. The ONS reports it hit 9% in April. This is the highest rate in over 40yrs. RPI, which is used to index a range of costs and benefits such as pensions and rail fare increases, hit 11.1%. This is impacting, or will shortly impact, consumer demand. Various charity bodies, Labour and backbench Tory MPs & the Citizens’ Advice Bureau have all commented. A few factors worth considering:

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.

Inflation snippets.

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.

PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Cost of living:

Inflation, covered in more detail above, is causing major problems for households when it comes to budgeting. Indeed, the cost of living crisis is driving families to seek shelter in McDonald’s, with one charity saying hard-pressed parents and children are spending their evenings in the fast food restaurants.

Rishi Sunak is facing pressure from Tory MPs to take decisive action to deal with the cost of living crisis with measures such as cutting VAT, increasing energy bill support and raising benefits. Sir Bernard Jenkin, the chair of the liaison committee that holds the prime minister to account, will warn that pensioners and the lowest income households face paying £1,000 more a year for food and energy.

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.

WFH:

The Evening Standard writes that the return to the office has led to companies snapping up new high-end office space at record levels. Mark Allan, CEO of Landsec, said that a ‘war for talent’ is driving the demand.

Labour & recruitment issues:

The employment stats that came out on Tuesday seem like a long time ago now. However, analysis of the detail shows there are some 171,000 vacancies across the hospitality sector. Fourth says ‘recruitment continues to be a major challenge for the sector as it builds back after an extremely challenging two-year period.’ It adds ‘when it comes to labour, it’s more important than ever sector businesses are continuing to plan ahead, helping them to accurately manage demand and ensure they have the optimum number of staff across each and every shift.’

Other news:

Oghma Partners has reported that the value of deals in the UK food and beverage dropped by 85% in January to April on the same period a year earlier. This can be impacted by big deals (or their absence).

US wine exports rose by 10.6% in value last year.

COMPANY NEWS:

Time Out Group has announce that it has entered into a management agreement with real estate developer Hankyu Hanshin Properties Corporation, to open a new Time Out Market in Osaka. CEO Didier Souillat says ‘following a challenging two years for the retail and hospitality sector, we’re delighted that all seven Time Out Markets around the world are open, and we’re excited for Time Out Market’s pipeline of future openings, scaling this successful format globally and driving growth.’

Fever-Tree has updated on Q1 trading saying that it has ‘made a solid start to the year, trading in-line with expectations set out in March.’ Re the outlook, the company says ‘we continue to operate against an industry-wide backdrop of logistics disruption, most notably in relation to the shipping of product to the US, and inflationary cost pressures. Whilst uncertainty remains in the near term, we are working with our supply chain partners on a large number of initiatives.’

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.

McDonald’s is set to partner with Deliveroo, listing on the app in Q2 2022. It comes after McDonald’s yesterday revealed it was injecting £250m into redesigning its restaurant estate to further integrate online orders, including dedicated car parking and collection areas for delivery couriers.

Dishoom announces that it will open a new restaurant in London’s Canary Wharf later this year, located at 13 Water Street. The restaurant will seat 335 covers, with a bar and terrace overlooking the water.

Patisserie Valerie has raised £16,778 for the Disaster Emergency Committee’s Ukraine Humanitarian Appeal. Patisserie Valerie donated £1 from every online order received between 14 March–29 April.

JD Wetherspoon chairman Tim Martin has called on the government to cut VAT in respect of food served in pubs, restaurants and cafes to help curb inflation.

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.

Just Eat and Caffè Nero have announced a new delivery partnership which sees the Just Eat platform offer the Caffè Nero menu from over 400 stores across the UK. Caffe Nero reports ‘the partnership plans to roll out at pace, with over 400 stores available on Just Eat, by the end of May 2022.’

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.

California-based meat-free meat company Impossible Foods is to make its European debut in the United Kingdom this week. It will launch two products, a plant-based chicken nugget and meat-free sausage patties.

British Land Company yesterday reported its first annual profit for three years and said that rent collection reached 97 per cent, near to pre-pandemic levels.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

PPHE Hotel Group has announced the extension of its strategic partnership with Radisson Hotel Group. PPHE has been the leading force behind the expansion of the Park Plaza brand in Europe, operating since 2002 under an exclusive and perpetual territorial licence of Radisson Hotel Group’s Park Plaza brand in Europe, Middle East and Africa.

Heathrow chairman Lord Deighton defended the airport’s plan to invest £4 billion into passenger service, saying ‘We will deliver what passengers want for the equivalent of less than a 2% increase in average ticket prices. A higher airport charge would deliver clear benefits for passengers but reduce airline profit margins slightly, and that is why they are arguing against it.’

SSP Group has won a number of new contracts at airports in Spain. The group has retained two contracts (including Seville for a further 7 years and Granada) and has won a five year contract at Alicante.

Moody’s reports that TUI’s placing of around 162 million of new ordinary shares for about €425 million of gross proceeds, or around 10% of the company’s share capital, is credit positive ‘as the proceeds, alongside existing cash resources, are intended to be used for the repayment of the €671 million Silent Participation’ which is ‘treated as debt under our methodology.’

The Centre for Policy Studies recommends that train operators scrap peak tickets and introduce ‘rail mile’ loyalty schemes similar to airlines to save Britain’s struggling rail industry. The number of people commuting every day at peak times is just 15pc of the pre-pandemic total, according to the think tank.

OTHER LEISURE:

Twitter has demanded that Elon Musk goes ahead with his $44bn takeover, with the network saying it was ‘committed to completing the transaction on the agreed price and terms as promptly as practicable’. Mr Musk has said ‘the deal cannot move forward’ unless Twitter backs up its claim that fewer than 5pc of daily users are fake.

Gym Group is today hosting a Capital Markets Day for investors and analysts. it will say that it is targeting, by 2025, some 300+ sites with £95-105m of EBITDA and some £40-50m Profit Before Tax.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Inflation is covered in Pubs & Restaurants above.

The CEBR says that border friction cost the UK economy £47.6bn in lost revenue last year.

Direct Line says that first time buyers need to spend £223,751 on their first property this year, up some £43,623 on 2016.

Sterling weaker at $1.2388 and €1.1795. Oil lower at $110.21. UK 10yr gilt yield down 4bps at 1.85%. World markets down yesterday. London set to open down 47pts as at 6.30am.

FORTHCOMING NEWS:

With the week drawing to a close, we have Young & Co today and GfK updating on consumer confidence on Friday still to look forward to.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.