Consumer confidence, trading, strikes, BNPL debt, staffing, delivery etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Finally got the grass cut yesterday as the mower came back from the menders and, after six weeks, it was quite a task.

Furthermore, having just mowed the tops off several dozen tiny cherry trees (and, sadly, a few oaks), I now know what the blackbirds do with the stones after they’ve stolen out cherries.

Anyway, the weather is taking a breather today before what should be an OK weekend and a decent week to lead us up to the start of July. Have a great weekend and on to the news:

LANGTON EMAIL:

The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade.

Prices for the Premium at time of writing are £345 for one subscription, £595 for multiple, both plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option HERE

PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Consumer confidence:

GfK has reported that UK consumer confidence has sunk to minus 41, a new record low and a number that is now below that at the worst point in the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009…

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.

Current trading:

Zonal has reported that lunch was still the most popular meal on Fathers’ Day this year (19th June) but the date saw a 57% increase in bookings for breakfast compared to Father’s Day last year. Overall breakfast accounted for 12.5% of all bookings for the day this year…’

Current trading continued. Lumina data. Lumina Intelligence’s Eating & Drinking Out Panel has reported that the number of people eating dinner at pubs has risen and the average spend for dinner is up 10%…

Current trading continued. Rail strikes. S4 Labour says that the rail strikes on Tuesday ‘saw hospitality sales take a concerning decline with London particularly hit hard: down 30% when compared to the previous week.’ The NTIA says late night operators were down by 40%. For them, Thursday and Saturday will be much bigger trading days…

RMT boss Mick Lynch has said that more rail strikes are “extremely likely” if talks do not progress. The government has called on the union(s) to call off the strikes “as quickly as possible”…

Consumer debt:

Unsecured debt is on the up. Barclays Bank and debt charity Step Change have suggested that 31% of the 30% of Britons who have tried Buy Now Pay Later credit schemes are having trouble with their repayments…

Staff shortages:

This remains a major issue and it doesn’t look like it’s going away any time soon. A joint survey by UK Hospitality, the British Institute of Innkeeping, and the British Beer and Pub Association, ‘demonstrates how a shortage of workers is damaging hospitality businesses and the UK’s recovery’ and suggests that hospitality could be losing £21bn in trade due to staff shortages…

Delivery:

CGA by Nielsen & Slerp have updated on the delivery market in the UK, saying that the level of delivery sales ‘are falling from the peaks of COVID-19 lockdowns.’ Combined delivery and collection sales ‘were 29% below the level of May 2021…’

Delivery continued. Further consolidation? Writing in theDelivery.World, foodservice analyst Peter Backman suggests that acquisitions are likely to remain a major part of the delivery space because of the operational and marketing benefits that accrue from scale and international reach…

Other news:

Design My Night points out there are 150 days to go before the start of the FIFA World Cup. It says ‘dozens of London venues have already registered ticketed events on DesignMyNight…and data shows that Birmingham is the second most popular city in the UK when it comes to World Cup searches…

US restaurants. Black Box in the US has reported that restaurant sales in May were satisfactory, given the tough comps when compared with bounce-back conditions last year. Growth was still a feature, though it is below prior months and below inflation…

The Welsh government is reported to be considering stopping the sale of tea and coffee to under-16s.

Minister for Brexit Opportunities Jacob Rees-Mogg has suggested that selling champagne in plastic bottles could be a Brexit benefit. Sparkling wine must be sold from glass bottles under EU rules…

S&P Markit’s flash PMIs for June show that the composite for the economy was unchanged month-on-month at 53.1 with the services PMI also unchanged on the prior month at 53.4…

COMPANY NEWS:

Liberation Group has announced the reopening of The Puffin & Oyster on the island of Guernsey.

Some of M&B’s Sizzling Pubs are offering two cocktails for £8 this Friday and Saturday and next Friday and Saturday.

Costa Coffee franchisee Sim Trava has accessed a £7.1m funding package from HSBC as it looks to add 17 sites.

Black Sheep Coffee has told the MCA it intends to open 68 sites within the next 10mths.

The Ministry of Sound is to reopen a former House of Fraser store in west London as flexible offices, a gym and rooftop bar-restaurant.

Naked Wines’ shares had a tough day yesterday, when they fell by 44%. The company confirmed that sales had slowed as restaurants had reopened.

In the US, Darden Restaurants, which own Olive Garden, reported Q4 numbers yesterday. The numbers were deemed to be OK but the co said ‘the consumer sentiment right now is at the lowest it’s been in 60 years, according to the University of Michigan…’

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Heathrow has upped its traffic outlook for 2022 to 54.4 million passengers, which is 67% of pre-pandemic 2019 levels.

British Airways’ check-in staff and ground crew at Heathrow have voted to strike during the summer.

Poland’s tourism organisation has launched a summer campaign aimed at persuading would-be travellers that the location is safe, despite bordering Ukraine.

Park Holidays UK has announced the acquisition of Park Leisure for an undisclosed amount.

ACI Europe has said that the recovery of the aviation industry in Europe remains “uneven and difficult”.

The Global Business Travel Association says that in-person meetings are set to dominate travel budgets.

STR has reported hotel occupancy in the US hit 71.8% in the week to 18 June, a new, post Covid record.

OTHER LEISURE:

Nike has announced that it will leave Russia.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Flash PMIs see Pubs & Restaurants above.

Yesterday’s public sector debt number, down on last year but still the third highest for May on record, was higher than expected due to the cost of servicing debt. Chancellor Rishi Sunak said that higher debt interest costs ‘pose a challenge for the public finances…’

The New York Fed reports that the chance of a ‘hard landing’, that is inflation being beaten by the creation of a recession, was around 80%.

Sterling up at $1.2274 and €1.1649. Oil price up a bit at $110.34. UK 10yr gilt yield down 18bps as stagflation fears continued to outweigh rising interest rate concerns. Markets lower yesterday but a bounce in the Far East & London set to open up some 58pts as at 6.30am.

FORTHCOMING NEWS:

Just the GfK Consumer Confidence numbers out today.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

• See premium. Reply to this email to upgrade.