Diageo, XPF, Comptoir, Airbnb, trading, mobility data & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

At some point I may have to give up the fight I’ve been waging on behalf of the possessive apostrophe.

I’ve been putting it back into Gregg’s and Walgreen’s and the like even though the companies themselves don’t seem to want it.

So, it’s starting to feel like rolling a big rock up a steep hill – and I can see that they don’t work well in website addresses but, having said that, Marston’s and Sainsbury’s apparently do still like that little inverted comma, which gives me a bit of hope.

And, at the end of the day, dropping the apostrophe may be the thin end of the wedge because, when it comes to names ending in the letter Y (like Sainsbury or, for that matter, Brumby), it can only be a matter of time before we start referring to them in the plural as Sainsburies.

Anyway, a bit short of time just now. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Trading: A joint BBPA, BII & UKHospitality survey has found that 37% of hospitality businesses across the UK are currently turning a profit.,,

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Regarding Scotland’s Deposit Return Scheme (DRS), UKHospitality Scotland Director Leon Thompson, comments ‘the complexity of the scheme brings with it inherent financial risks to hospitality businesses. Scotland members continue to be concerned about secure storage, the theft of containers and the breakage of glass, all of which will result in the loss of deposits – a situation that would hit businesses hard.’

KAM has commented on the upcoming summer of sport. It says ‘two thirds of operators said that live sport on TV will have a direct influence on attracting customers to their venue…’

Bloomberg has released its latest Pret Index saying that ‘Train Strikes Hurt Sandwich Sales as Millions Stay Home…’

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WFH: Some positive noises coming out of the commercial property market (with implications, presumably, for Work-from-Home). Cushman & Wakefield reports that the number of companies signing leases on London offices hit a record last year…

Costs & prices: 10 Downing Street’s cost of living Tsar, David Buttress, has called on businesses to cut prices to customers. Are we missing something? The BBC reports ‘the government will not provide any funding for businesses to cut prices…’

Discounts: M&B seems to be leading the way here. its Vintage Inns business is emailing customers and offering two pizzas for £15. The chain’s Sizzling Pubs were offering two cocktails for £8.

Labour & the cost thereof. We have said several times that inflation isn’t zero sum as it robs from the weak and gives to the strong. This can take years to unwind. Unionised labour does well, unrepresented workers do not. Strong brands can widen margins and weaker or commodity players may see the opposite.

Looking at labour, interesting to see threats (or actual strikes) from train staff, underground workers, Bank of England staff, fire fighters, barristers, Post Office workers and junior doctors and doubtless many, many more.

Capital markets inactive. Walgreens has abandoned attempts to sell Boots. IPO numbers were recently said to be down 90%. Stockbroker share prices have been under sustained pressure.

Consumer behaviour: Courtesy of Nick Bubb, we see that Nielsen data for the 4 weeks to 18 June showed total till sales up by 1.5%, with online grocery sales falling sharply by 12%…

A report by the Food Standards Agency (FSA) and Food Standards Scotland (FSS) has found that the UK is facing ‘significant risks’ to the quality of food…

National Hospitality Day, organised by a coalition of UK charities, returns for a second year on September 16th 2022.

TRADING, A DEEPER DIVE:

This is an adaptation of a piece that went to clients in early April with headings Exiting Covid…Buzzwords: Permanently, fleetingly or never true?…The Bank of England…Human nature….Reversing QE, Brexit & Ukraine add to the problem and other:

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COMPANY NEWS:

Diageo has said that it will wind down business in Russia over the next six months and cease business by the end of the year…

Comptoir. Founder, creative director and largest shareholder (with 47.5%) of the company, Tony Kitous, has written to the company asking chairman Richard Kleiner and CEO Chaker Hanna to resign as directors of the Company…

Red Oak Taverns has announced the acquisition of three tied tenanted pubs this week from Liberation Group for an undisclosed sum. The pubs are based in the South West of England and are operated by tenants under substantive agreements.

XP Factory (was Escape Hunt), has updated on trading ahead of its AGM, saying that ‘further progress has been made…’

BrewDog co-founder James Watt has announced the business is working with digital finance company Globacap to give its shareholders the option of having their equity ‘tokenised’…

Chipotle is to open its first UK restaurant outside of London this week in Watford. The new location on Watford High Street will be the group’s 12th site.

North Bar in Leeds is turning 25 this July, with the popular local bar kicking off the celebrations with a birthday party.

Boparan Restaurant Group is set to open 4 Slim Chickens simultaneously on 4 July in Leicester, Liverpool, Milton Keynes and London’s Bishopsgate. The openings will bring the US-born and raised fast casual brand’s UK portfolio up to 26 sites.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Safestay has announced that it will report annual results in July rather than before the AIM deadline of 30 June. This is at the request of its auditors and is ‘due to Covid related challenges and the impact it has had on resource availability to complete the audit.’ Safestay further updates on trading…

Airbnb’s shares fell sharply after the co said that its pandemic era ban on parties will be made permanent.

TMC consortium Advantage Travel Partnership reports that transactions for Advantage Global Network members recovered to 56% of 2019 levels in the first quarter of 2022. Average revenue per transaction was also ‘close’ to matching 2019 levels.

The Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) has said that the cap on landing fees charged per passenger at Heathrow will fall from £30.19 to £26.31 by 2026…

OTHER LEISURE:

Camelot reports that sales of lottery tickets and instant win games fell…

FINANCE & MARKETS:

A Citi/YouGov survey has suggested that public expectations for CPI five to ten years out has fallen in the last month to +4.0% YoY, the lowest level since January. One year ahead expectations are unchanged at +6.1%.

ECB boss Christine Lagarde has reiterated plans to raise rates. She says inflation is ‘undesirably high’ and says the ECB will act in ‘a determined and sustained manner’ to bring it down.

Sterling mixed at $1.2196 and €1,161. Oil price up a shade at $117.00. UK10yr gilt yield up 8bps at 2.47%. world markets better but fading yesterday. Far East lower today. London set to open down around 52pts as at 7.30am.

FORTHCOMING NEWS:

Quiet week. XPF AGM today, Comptoir & Playtech AGMs Thursday and Constellation Brands Q1 on the same day.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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