Labour stats, Hotel Chocolat, inflation, ROO, staycations etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

The day yesterday felt like a race against time; namely get the email out and then get the grass cut before it got too hot.

Or, to be honest, too dangerous, which it wasn’t at 11am yesterday but it might be by that time today what, with the temperature set to hit 40 degrees.

And, if the sun doesn’t get you in this kind of weather, it’s perfectly possible that your machinery will self-combust as the heat combined with a few handfuls of bone-dry grass caked on the cylinders of your mower could leave you basically driving around on a flaming haystack, in which case you’ll appear as a statistic on the local news if the journos are hard up for stories.

Anyway, we also made it to the pub at lunchtime. A Punch tenancy, it was very pleasant and we learned something, viz, not only is it a bit of a challenge to eat steak pie and chips in this heat, but also, if you coax your puppy across acres of scalding tarmac on her delicate puppy feet, to go somewhere they always had reservations about going, you’ll end up carrying her back.

Anyway, hotter today than yesterday so take care out there. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Inflation:

Fourth reports that ‘spiralling costs and major disruption to the supply chain are having a drastic impact on hospitality operators’ food and drinks bills – and profits.’ It says the data, collected from over 1,000 pubs, bars and restaurants, shows that ‘the hardest hit commodities are dairy (costs up by 40%), grains (+35%), meat (+35%), fish (+25%) and fruit and veg (+20%)…’

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A bright spot. The AA reports that the price of petrol has fallen from record highs. It says average pump prices are down to 188.76p per litre for petrol and 196.96p per litre for diesel.

Lessons from the past. Foodservice analyst Peter Backman has been speaking with operators who had some experience in the hospitality industry during the last major bout of inflation in the UK, in the 1970s. This week, he spoke with Andrew Guy, former CEO at City Centre Restaurants (now Restaurant Group). There are both differences and similarities between the situation now and that of 40+ years ago…

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Labour market:

Unemployment 3.8%, down 0.1% on the quarter. The ONS has this morning updated on UK unemployment and average earnings saying that ‘over the quarter [from March to May], there was an increase in the employment rate, while unemployment and economic inactivity rates decreased…’

The ONS says that growth in average earnings for the quarter to May, including bonuses, was 6.2%. Excluding bonuses, it was 4.3%…

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Footfall:

Springboard reports that footfall last week was up 18.2% against 2021 but remained 12.9% below 2019…

WFH:

The FT reports that property developers are pushing plans to build two new towers in the City of London.

Covid:

Down but not out. In fact, not down as much as it was, either. Journal PNAS reports that vaccines have short-lived only protection against new variants of Covid…

COMPANY NEWS:

Hotel Chocolat Group has updated on full year trading to 26 June 2022 saying group revenue increased by 37% to £226m (FY21: £165m), ahead of market consensus expectations…’

Strike action is set to continue at Budweiser Brewing Group site in Lancashire.

Fever Tree CEO Tim Warrillow last week bought 115,000 Fever-Tree shares at a total cost of around £1million.

Deliveroo shares rose by 7% yesterday despite its announcement that sales growth would be materially slower this year than previously expected.

The MCA reports Five Guys as saying ‘we are expecting record store openings this year.’

Amazon Fresh is to price-match with Tesco across a number of products.

Cornish Bakery says that its new Stamford bakery ‘fits perfectly with the ongoing expansion plan’.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Cottage company Sykes says that  77% of Brits are planning to holiday in the UK this year. It says this proportion is up from 75% last year.

A group of South Yorkshire business leaders have released a statement in support of Doncaster Sheffield Airport…

Royal Caribbean’s Silversea Cruises has bought Crystal Cruises’ vessel Crystal Endeavor for $275 million.

Luton Airport suspended flights yesterday after the extreme heat caused parts of the runway to melt. There will be no services on large parts of the LNER rail system today as a result of the heat and wire damage.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Bank of England MPC member Michael Saunders has said that interest rates could reach 2% or more in the next year.

Rightmove reports that asking prices for UK homes have risen to a record high for the sixth month in a row.

Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi is to say the government will deliver “sound public finances” and bring inflation under control.

Sterling up at $1.1953 and €1.1778. Oil price higher at $1.5.83. UK 10yr gilt yield up 7bps at 2.16%. World markets mixed yesterday. London set to open down around 29pts as at 6.30am.

FORTHCOMING NEWS:

Next week, Deliveroo and Tortilla update on trading on Monday and Loungers hosts investor presentations on Tuesday. Fuller’s hosts its AGM (and will update on trading) on Wednesday and Premier Foods also updates on Q1 on Wednesday and Fulham Shore reports full year numbers on Thursday. DPEU will update on H1 trading, also on Thursday.

Big week next week for economic releases. We have Unemployment and Average Earnings numbers on Tuesday then Inflation numbers on Wednesday. Thursday sees the ONS admit to how much the government is Borrowing on behalf of taxpayers and on Friday we have a triple whammy of Retail Sales numbers, the GfK Consumer Confidence Index and Flash PMIs for July.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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