Langton Capital – 2022-09-09 – HM QE2, RTN, G4M, XPF, energy bailout, JDW, inflation & other:
HM QE2, RTN, G4M, XPF, energy bailout, JDW, inflation & other:A DAY IN THE LIFE: Watching too much telly last night and short of time. On to the news: LANGTON EMAIL: The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade. Prices for the Premium at time of writing are £345 for one subscription, £595 for multiple, both plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option HERE ENERGY BAIL OUT: New PM Liz Truss has announced that UK households will have their annual energy bills capped at £2,500 for two years with business costs likely frozen for 6mths. Business and other users have been promised ‘equivalent support’ with further funding potentially available after the 6mth period for vulnerable companies. The bailout may cost taxpayers in the region of £130bn over 2yrs… Details are still being worked out. The scheme will start in October and will replace the £3,549 cap that would have applied from that month. The plan will be paid for by increased borrowing. Ms Truss has ruled out windfall taxes implying that the bill will have to be paid by tomorrow’s taxpayers. Comments below on The Consumer, Business, Trade Bodies and Unanswered Questions • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. RESTAURANT GROUP H1 ANALYSTS’ MEETING: Following the release of its H1 numbers, the Restaurant Group hosted a webinar for analysts and our comments thereon are set out below: Trading: There has been a marked slowdown in trading since the AGM update in May. For Wagamama and Leisure, about half of this slowdown was driven by the summer heatwaves. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Death of Queen Elizabeth… Industry chiefs and trade bodies have paid tribute to the late-Queen Elizabeth II. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Inflation: The latest CGA Prestige Foodservice Price Index shows that prices in all 10 categories saw upward YoY movement, with two experiencing inflation of more than 20%… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Trading in the near term: Prior to the well-flagged announcement of a £2,500 energy cap for consumers, UKH said that it had new figures that suggested three in five hospitality operators were not making a profit… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Other news: The French Agricultural Ministry predicts that 44 million hectolitres (mhl) of wine will be produced from the 2022 harvest, rebounding from last year’s low level of 37.8 mhl. This suggests that the country’s 2022 vintage will amount to a similar volume as 2019 (42.5 mhl). COMPANY NEWS: Restaurant Group. The takeaways may be that delivery has ‘moderated’… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. XP Factory (was Escape Hunt) has updated on trading… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Thursday 15 September will see Wetherspoons pubs across the UK cut the price of all food and drink in its pubs by 7.5% in order to highlight the benefit of a permanent VAT reduction in the hospitality industry… Fruit wholesaler Jupiter Marketing Ltd has gone into administration, despite completing a recent refinancing. The company faced a difficult market with cost inflation in all its operating regions, as well as a big rise in supply chain costs and delays. Asahi Super Dry is celebrating ‘one year to go’ before the 2023 Rugby World Cup, where it is the official beer for the tournament. Asahi will produce limited edition Rugby World Cup 2023 cans and bottles. HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: Abta CEO Mark Tanzer has said that Prime Minister Truss’ energy plan is ‘good’ but that it was ‘disappointing that the measures announced today only last for six months initially… Iata reports total July air traffic up 59% YoY and was 76% of 2019 levels. International traffic reached 68% of the July 2019 level, lagging domestic travel, which was 87% of 2019 levels. Iata director general Willie Walsh reports that airlines are having to pay 50% premium for jet fuel, compared to the price of Brent crude oil. Airlines are paying more than $140 a barrel for fuel even as global oil prices fell towards $90. The price premium for jet fuel over crude oil averaged 17% between 2009 and 2019 but it had risen as high as 60% this year. OTHER LEISURE: Gear 4 Music has updated on trading, saying ‘despite the weaker consumer environment we are pleased to have achieved sales growth during Q1. Trading during July and August has, however, been further impacted by the widely reported cost of living crisis and unusually hot weather across Europe.’ The co goes on to downgrade expectations for the current year from EBITDA of around £11.9m to £9m… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. FINANCE & MARKETS: The ECB yesterday put its key interest rates up by 75 basis points to between 0.75% and 1.25%, their highest levels since 2011. The RICS has said that a reduction in the supply of houses on the market has pushed up prices. But it cautions there has been a sharp drop in interest from new buyers. Sterling mixed at $1.1585 and €1.1509. Oil up at $89.56. UK 10yr gilt yield up 12bps at 3.15%. World markets mixed to better yesterday and London set to open up around 23 points as at 6.30am. FORTHCOMING NEWS: Gear 4 Music hosts its AGM today. Next week we have numbers from Fever Tree and Artisinal Spirits with the Bank of England’s MPC announcing its latest interest rate decision on Thursday. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. |
|
