Langton Capital – 2022-10-17 – Current trading, labour, Comptoir, Nero, Chapel Down, Boxpark & other:
Current trading, labour, Comptoir, Nero, Chapel Down, Boxpark & other:A DAY IN THE LIFE: Friday was a rather odd one. I woke up about five minutes before getting-up-time and, convinced it was Saturday, I thanked the heavens that it was the weekend and that I didn’t have to get up early and then my alarm went off. Which left me wondering for half a second or so just why I had set it on the weekend before reality set in and that was altogether a bit of a bummer but, I suppose you should always put things in perspective and, though the last working day of the week had started on a down note, everything is relative. I wasn’t the PM having to backtrack on everything of note that I had said and done and, anyway, we got the day back on track. The email went out but, when we took the puppy out for a walk, she leapt on and had a serious go at a pigeon, which was very much like the scene in Galaxy Quest where the cute little aliens fall on and devour one of their colleagues who’s picked up a nagging injury. That left us a) wondering just what sort of beast we were sheltering and feeding and b) rather ineffectually doing the Fenton bit, the deer-chasing Richmond Park dog but, by then, it was rather too late and, whilst we told her off, I have never seen a less contrite dog in my life. Enough of that, on to the news: LANGTON EMAIL: The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade. Prices for the Premium at time of writing are £345 for one subscription, £595 for multiple, both plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option HERE https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=87YUG2Z5W7PSN PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Current trading: CGA has released its Drinks Recovery Tracker for the week to 8 October saying that overall drink sales in the on-trade were 3% ahead of those in the same week last year… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. UKH CEO Kate Nicholls has welcomed the PM’s last but one U-turn saying ‘we now need to see government take a longer-term look at what will boost businesses and inspire confidence to invest…’ Michael Kill, CEO of the NTIA, comments ‘the British Government has all but lost the confidence of the sector, businesses are on the verge of collapse, with many facing an uncertain future leading to the critical golden quarter…’ The ONS reports that the number of insolvencies in total in England & Wales in September was 1,679. This is up 16% on September 2021 and up 11% on the pre-pandemic month of September 2019. The consumer: Chairman of Tesco John Allan has told the BBC that consumers will face hardship as a result of the rise in interest rates. Mortgage costs for those coming off two and five year fixes with a £200k mortgage could rise by around £6,000 per annum… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, has said that interest rates may need to rise by more than previously expected… The Resolution Foundation reports that over five million households will see their annual mortgage payments rise by £5,100 a year on average between now and the end of 2024… While some homeowners on variable rate deals will see their costs increase immediately, the impact on the majority of mortgaged homeowners, who are on fixed-rate mortgages, will build over the coming years as they move off lower rates on to new deals, the think tank added. The Warm This Winter pressure group says that around seven million homes in the UK could be in fuel poverty without further help this winter. It says that the Energy Price Guarantee and the £400 energy bills payment will help but it believes that more should be done. Labour market: The Recruitment & Employment Confederation reports that hospitality is amongst the industries that have found it most difficult to recruit (or re-recruit) staff… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Normality at Christmas? Tickets for London’s New Year’s Eve celebrations go on sale next Friday, the first time in three years that the city will welcome in the New Year from the banks of the Thames… Please feel free to let us know how Christmas bookings are going. Is trading anything like ‘normal’? We’ll update thereafter. Green issues: A Plastic Planet’s ‘Reduce, Refill and Replace Revolution’ strategy has received cross-party backing from 24 MPs, peers and NGOs. The proposals call for the introduction of single-use plastic bans on plastic sachets, bags, pots, single-use bottles and fruit wrapping as early as 2024. Walkers is investing £14m into sustainable packaging moves, claiming that it will remove 250 tonnes of virgin plastic from its supply chain annually. KeepCup reports that 60% of its customers were using their KeepCups more than three times a week – up from 21% the previous year as reusable cups saw a downturn during the pandemic. Around 64% of UK consumers said they were limiting their use of single-use plastic over the last year, and 52% valued durability over recyclability. Other news: Israeli 3D meat printing company, Redefine Meat, has partnered with importer Giraudi Meats to drive European distribution of its ‘New Meat’ steak cuts produced on 3D printers. Redefine Meat raised $170m in a series A financing round earlier this year. Battersea Power Station opened last Friday, with visitors now able to discover the Power Station’s Turbine Halls, which have been restored and transformed into a one-of-a-kind retail and leisure destination. COMPANY NEWS: Comptoir has announced Nick Ayerst as its new CEO, starting 17 October. Mr Ayerst was previously Managing Director of LEON and will take over from Mr Jean-Michel Orieux, who has been interim CEO since August 2022… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Caffe Nero has reported that it is launching a new partnership with Waitrose. It reports that the ‘free hot drinks offer for myWaitrose members returns’ and says that the ‘Strategic Partnership will also see Caffè Nero’s range of ‘coffee at home” products carried in Waitrose stores across the U.K. – with 20% off the normal price during November.’ BrewDog reports that its newest bar is to open in Atlanta, Georgia. James Watt says ‘located directly on the BeltLine and right next to the iconic Krog Street Market, our newest bar features an onsite brewery and 28 taps of BrewDog beers plus some amazing local beers too.’ He adds that ‘like all of our locations we share 50% of the profits with the fantastic team who work there and the bar is also carbon negative!.’ Boxpark CEO Simon Champion has told City AM that young Londoners receiving inflation-related salary boosts have helped to protect Boxpark from a slowdown in discretionary spending. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Jamie Oliver’s latest restaurant, a pop-up kitchen in Archer Street, Soho, opened over the weekend. Chapel Down has updated on its harvest, saying that ‘favourable growing conditions have enabled the delivery of both an exceptional grape quality and yield. Across its 750 acres already under vine, the Company has delivered a record tonnage of its key sparkling wine grapes, Chardonnay, Pinot Noir and Pinot Meunier, as part of a total harvest of over 2,000 tonnes…. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. The Inn Collection Group acquired its second Welsh property, The Bull in Beaumaris. Tim Hortons plans to launch 50 stores in the Queretaro region of Mexico, doubling its current footprint in the country. The $30m investment will create 1,000 new jobs and 7,500 indirect jobs over the next three years. HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: Real world issues: Travel Weekly reports that there has been difficulty in pricing 2023 holidays, with suppliers reluctant to commit to prices far in advance amid rapidly rising costs. Operators do not want to be in a position where they may price high, and lose trade, or price low, and maybe have to ask for surcharges to be paid maybe a year down the line… More than 1,000 Stansted workers have agreed a new pay offer with the airport, staving off potential strike action. The offer of a 10% increase plus an additional £250 payment was accepted by workers. Lowest paid workers were offered an 11% raise over the year. OTHER LEISURE: A court filing made public on Thursday showed that Elon Musk is under a federal investigation related to his $44bn takeover of Twitter. The filing did not say what the focus of the investigation was, or which federal authorities were investigating. HMRC has filed another winding-up petition against Southend United, scheduled to be heard in the High Court on 9 November. In a prior response, Southend stated that they wanted to ‘discharge the HMRC debt in full’. ITV is reported to be mulling the possible sale of its production arm. The company may sell ITV Studios, one of the largest content producers in Europe. FINANCE & MARKETS: Responding to PM Liz Truss’s last but one U-turn (the decision not to reverse the rise in Corporation Tax), the British Chambers of Commerce says ‘the Prime Minister was right to take some action now. We have been calling for the Government to urgently address market volatility, return stability to the economy and give business some certainty to plan.’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. The Bank of England has halted its purchase of UK government bonds having bought £19.3bn worth. When this is ultimately sold back into the market, it is likely to depress gilt prices and raise yields. The Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, is reported set ‘to fast track many billions of pounds worth of tax and spending measures from his debt plan, announcing them a fortnight earlier than expected’ per the BBC. The plans will be outlined later today. Panmure Gordon reports that 10yrs worth of house price growth is likely to be wiped out due to the depressing impact of higher interest rates on the value of the UK’s housing stock… Sterling down since Friday but steadier in the Far East at $1.1236 and €1.1527. Oil down at $92.38. Sterling 10yr gilt yield up 19bps since Friday at 4.37%. World markets mixed to lower on Friday and London set to open down around 21pts as at 6.30am. The EY Item Club has reported that the UK will enter (or has entered) a recession that will last until next summer. It says that rising inflation and higher interest rates have pushed GDP into reverse. There are some concerns that an unwind of the high levels of stocks built up to protect against delivery problems during Covid could depress GDP. GDP has/had effectively been brought forward into 2020 and 2021. A ‘hit’ of around 0.8% could be registered by 2024. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: • See premium. 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