Deliveroo Q3, ROO, IHG Q3, politics, surveys, GfK, trading & more:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Langton’s grape harvest this year is down by 100%.

That’s from about 80 grammes (one microscopic bunch of peanut-sized, foul-tasting grapes last year) to zero despite the number of vines planted rising by 100% (from one to two).

And the reason why the thing (and now its companion) has gone on strike is unclear.

It may be a mix of drought, neglect, blunt force trauma and the over-application of dog urine as we’ve never seen any of the above recommended by vine-keepers as suitable ways to promote yield.

But, on the other hand, our cooking apple yield is humungous.

The monster apples weigh about a kilo each and they shake the ground when they hit it. They’ll keep the pheasants (and the foxes that circle them) fed for weeks and, as they start to rot, they will no doubt keep them drunk, too.

Anyway, enough of that. A week is a long time in the markets and it would seem it’s even longer in politics. Have a good weekend and let’s move on to the news:

LANGTON EMAIL:

The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade.

Prices for the Premium at time of writing are £345 for one subscription, £595 for multiple, both plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option HERE

https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=87YUG2Z5W7PSN

DELIVEROO – Q3 SALES NUMBERS:

Deliveroo has this morning updated on Q3 trading and our comments thereon are set out below:

Headline numbers: Deliveroo says it has seen ‘continued year-on-year growth in Q3 2022, with gross transaction value (GTV) up 8% year-on-year in reported currency and 5% year-on-year in constant currency’ It says that ‘GTV per order was up 6% driven by item level price inflation; orders were down (1)%, reflecting the difficult consumer environment.’ The company goes on to say that ‘GTV growth broadly stable during Q3 2022, with September year-on-year growth similar to Q3 overall; in Q3 2022, GTV contracted by (5)% sequentially (vs Q2 2022) reflecting summer seasonality in European markets and current consumer headwinds.’

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out.

PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

PMs & politics:

Responding to the resignation of PM Liz Truss, Shevaun Haviland, DG of the BCC, said ‘following weeks of chaos and uncertainty, the Prime Minister has resigned. Her resignation means the UK now faces even greater uncertainty, just as it stands on the cusp of a recession…’

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out.

Tony Danker of the CBI says ‘the politics of recent weeks have undermined the confidence of people, businesses, markets and global investors in Britain. That must now come to an end if we are to avoid yet more harm to households and firms…’

Other comments:

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out.

Consumers’ spending power:

With food prices up by 14.5% according to the ONS, mortgages up maybe £500 a month and utility prices up £1,500 on where they were a year ago, we know where some of the hard-pressed consumers’ money is going. There is also pressure elsewhere, with many other costs rising before the would-be customer is able to spend on non-essential items…

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out.

A survey by Which? has found that almost half of all consumers are finding it harder to eat healthily compared with before the crisis, with millions skipping meals as soaring inflation leaves them unable to buy essentials…

The Trussell Trust, a charity that supports a network of 1,300 food bank centres, has launched an emergency appeal, warning that ‘the soaring cost of living is driving a tsunami of need to food banks’.

Sky reports that ‘the average rent has hit a record high outside London and stood at an average of £1,162 per calendar month in the three months between July and September.’ It says that rents rose by 16.1% to an average of £2,343 a month in London.

City regulator the FCA has reported that as many as six in ten UK adults are struggling to keep up with their bills. It says some 7.8m are beginning to have difficulties. In total, some 31.9 million people, or 60% of UK adults, were estimated to be finding it a “heavy burden” or “somewhat of a burden” keeping up with bills reports the BBC.

The National Grid is to increase the value of the discounts that it offers on electricity bills for households that use electricity in off peak hours.

Consumer confidence:

GfK has reported on UK consumer confidence in October, saying it was slightly less bad and that ‘UK consumers [are] grappling with ‘new abnormal’ amid uncertainty and turmoil.’ It says that its ‘Consumer Confidence Index increased two points in October to -47. Three measures were up, one was flat and one decreased in comparison to the September 23rd announcement…’

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out.

Trading:

Lumina Intelligence’s UK Pubs & Bars Market Report 2022 suggests that pub volumes declined over the summer ‘with spend growth remaining flat despite record-breaking summer temperatures and various sporting events….’

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out.

Other news:

Inflation. Worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals. Farm-gate milk prices are up 49% on a year ago at 46.71p per litre. Volumes are only down by 1.5% suggesting that the above is an absolute shift of money from consumers to farmers (and thence to fertiliser companies, feed companies and the like).

Unit closures. Commenting on the Alix Partners data released yesterday re closures, UKH tweets ‘there is no time to waste – once these businesses are gone, they are gone for good. This scale of losses cannot continue – it must be avoided at all costs.’

COMPANY NEWS:

Deliveroo has announced that Scilla Grimble will join the board as CFO with effect from 20 February 2023. The company says ‘David Hancock who is currently serving as Interim Chief Financial Officer since 17 September 2022 will step down from the position with effect from the same date.’

Deliveroo confirms it is exiting the Netherlands following a consultation this summer. The food delivery app said achieving and sustaining a top-tier market position in the market would require ‘a disproportionate level of investment with highly uncertain long-term potential returns’. Deliveroo’s final operating day of service in the Netherlands will be November 30…

Fulham Shore owned Franco Manca is set to open two units, in Cardiff and in Chichester, on Monday. The group’s The Real Greek chain is due to open two further units in shopping centres in Scotland in December and March.

Shepherd Neame’s Jonathan Neame spoke to the Today Programme, today, saying that staffing remained a major issue and that any new UK administration needed to sort out the immigration system…

The first ballot to ever take place at a UK Amazon warehouse site has not reached the 50% of members needed to trigger industrial action. Some 99% of those actually voting did call for action.

Boston Tea Party reports sales down £1.3m to £13.3m for the year ended 20 October 2021, with the loss caused by the final extended lockdown of the pandemic period. Sam Roberts, CEO, said ‘ a portfolio of local cafes that are well positioned in residential and non-high street locations, gives us a solid base to deal with the current sector headwinds.’

Cake Box has announced the appointment of Michael Botha as Chief Financial Officer.

The MCA reports that US-based 50 Eggs Hospitality Group is looking to bring its Yardbird brand to the UK, as well as standalone sites under higher end concepts Chica and Wakuda. Private equity firm TriSpan’s US fund is backing Yardbird, and is helping drive its expansion to the UK.

The MA reports that Anglian Country Inns saw LfL revenue up 20% on 2019 levels to £14.3m in the year to 3 April 2022. EBITDA grew to £1.96m, up from a loss of £200k in 2021.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Intercontinental Hotels Group has reported Q3 numbers saying that REVPAR in the quarter was up by 28% vs 2021 and up by 2.7% vs 2019. The company says average daily rate is up 13% vs last year and up 11% vs 2019. IHG CEO Keith Barr says ‘strong trading in the third quarter helped our group-wide RevPAR exceed pre-pandemic levels…’

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out.

InterContinental Hotels Group has also today announced that Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson ‘will step down from the Board and his role as Chief Financial Officer and Group Head of Strategy to take up a new position outside of IHG.’ See Flutter, below. The company reports ‘Paul will leave IHG in six months’ time and the Company has begun the process of appointing a successor.’

Holidu, a Munich-based software and services vacation rental startup, has completed a €104m Series E funding round of equity and debt led by existing investor 83North. The €100 million raise also includes a chunk of venture debt — €25 million — that’s been put up by Claret Capital and Silicon Valley Bank.

OTHER LEISURE:

Flutter has announced that its ‘Group CFO, Jonathan Hill, will establish a new Group COO function next year to maximise the benefits of Flutter’s global scale and support the strategic direction of the business.’ It reports that ‘Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson, currently Chief Financial Officer and Group Head of Strategy at InterContinental Hotels Group plc, will join as CFO and Executive Director of the Group in the first half of 2023.’

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Research produced by the Economic & Social Research Institute has concluded that exports from the UK to the EU is down 16% on the levels expected had Brexit not happened. Imports from the EU are down 20%. The UK economy, in 2016, was around 90% of the size of that of Germany. Now, as a result of slower growth and Sterling weakness, it is around 70%.

The ONS reports that the average cost of a home in the UK rose 13.6% in the year to August.

The UK Debt Management Office this week auctioned £7.2bn of gilts but only managed to sell £4.6bn of them.

Bank of England deputy governor Ben Broadbent has said that, if interest rates have to rise to 5.25%, they would be responsible for a 5% drop (or missing of growth) in GDP. Expectations may be being reset, but 5.25% had been earlier estimates for peak rates.

The Guardian reports that outgoing PM Liz Truss ignored economists’ warnings about the impact of what quickly became a disastrous mini-Budget.

Sterling weaker at $1.1192 and €1.1453. Oil lower at $92.92. UK 10yr gilt yield up 5bps at 3.94%. World markets broadly lower yesterday and London set to open down around 36pts as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

• See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out.