Langton Capital – 2022-10-25 – Whitbread, On the Beach, Various Eateries, services output, trading etc.:
Whitbread, On the Beach, Various Eateries, services output, trading etc.:A DAY IN THE LIFE: We binge watched an ITV dramatized documentary over the weekend, three episodes in total, probably two-and-a-quarter hours ex-adverts. And good it was too but the problem is, you can’t ex the adverts. Worse, there were about four ad breaks per episode (including the one at the beginning) with four ads in each, that’s 48 ads that you have to ingest over the three episodes and, as they only had about 5 different companies advertising, that’s rather gruelling. Indeed, it’s madness inducing because, when the ditty started to play for whatever bingo, online car sales market or consumer easy-loans company was next up, I found myself on the 8th, 9th or 10th time of listening, alternately digging my nails in my leg or pulling clumps of hair out of my head. Which is best avoided. Anyway, although Boris Johnson’s comeback didn’t survive contact with reality, the BBC over the weekend nearly showed us how real life can follow art when the newly-regenerated Dr Who turned out to be one of his / her old incarnations. On to the news: LANGTON EMAIL: The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade. Prices for the Premium at time of writing are £345 for one subscription, £595 for multiple, both plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option HERE https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=87YUG2Z5W7PSN WHITBREAD H1 RESULTS: Whitbread has reported H1 numbers and our comments thereon are set out below. Headline numbers: Whitbread says H1 ‘profits exceed pre-pandemic levels and we remain significantly ahead of the UK market.’ it adds that there are ‘increased structural opportunities for growth underpinned by a strong balance sheet.’ Whitbread reports revenue up by 104% vs FY22 at £1.35bn, which is up 25% on H1/20 (the group is a February year end). Adjusted PBT is £271.9m (FY22 loss £56.6m and FY20 £235.6m). Adjusted EPS is 107p vs a loss per share of 26.4p last year and a pforit of 97.1p per share pre-Covid H1. Whitbread is proposing to pay a dividend of 24.4p per share (last year zero, pre-Covid 32.7p). • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Politics: This may calm down a little now. Recent news. Rishi Sunak is / will shortly be PM. JDW chairman Tim Martin backed him yesterday. The BCC says ‘the political and economic uncertainty of the past few months has been hugely damaging to British business confidence and must now come to an end.’ It says ‘the new Prime Minister must be a steady hand on the tiller to see the economy through the challenging conditions ahead…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. The CBI’s Tony Danker says ‘the new Prime Minister can lose no time in easing the impact of market turmoil on households and firms, and helping to restore fiscal credibility.’ He adds ‘a fiscal plan for the medium-term next week that is both credible and a platform to generate economic growth will be central to achieving that.’ UKH CEO Kate Nicholls says ‘this is a critical time for hospitality businesses as they battle soaring energy costs, workforce shortages and waning consumer confidence, so stable political leadership is absolutely critical.’ Trading: See Whitbread comments on F&B sales above. Flash measures of Services output. S&P’s flash composite PMI was 47.2 in October (49.1 in Sept). Services was 47.5 (Sept 50.0) and manufacturing was 45.6 (up from 44.2 last month). See also Finance & Markets below… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Law firm Shakespeare Martineau has pointed out that food and drink companies accounted for 6% of administrations in the first six months of this year… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Footfall. Springboard has updated on footfall for the week to 22 October saying it was up 5.6% on last year but it remains 17.0% down on 2019. The number is down 0.7% on last week… A survey by accountant BDO finds that a fifth of medium-sized companies believe the present crisis will be more challenging than the Covid pandemic, Brexit or the 2008 banking crash. Late Night market: Rekom has produced its latest Night Index suggesting that ‘Gen Z will pay to party on despite rising costs.’ The labour market is healthy and that particular demographic tends to be free of mortgage obligations… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Other news: In the US, the Bloomberg Second Measure shows that a number of full-service restaurant companies have now pushed sales in Q3 2022 ahead of the same quarter in 2019. The Cheesecake Factory is up 33%, Cracker Barrel is up 27% and Darden Restaurants is up by 22%. All of the players have pushed prices. COMPANY NEWS: Various Eateries updates on full year trading for the 52wks to 2 Oct saying that there is ‘continued healthy demand despite tough [the] consumer environment’. The company says it ‘delivered a solid trading performance in the period, with sales for the year expected to be slightly ahead of market expectations at over £40m, demonstrating the resilience of our proposition even in times of economic uncertainty….’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Hostmore is set to close its 63rd & 1st restaurant in Harrogate. The company says that despite its popularity, it seems low footfall meant the venue had become “economically unviable.” Shake Shack is opening its 12th location in the UK, on Argyll Street in Oxford Circus. The MCA reports that Kerb plans to take its street food market concept international, with a venue opening in a major European city in early 2024. Compass Group is to offer grants to staff to help with emergency payments as a part of its efforts to help staff with the cost of living crisis. The Cocktail Club has opened its 17th site in Canary Wharf, London. Bakery chain Cornish Bakery has announced the opening of another site in the Plymouth Barbican, Devon, as founder Steve Grocutt ‘continues in his swift-growth mission to 100 sites.’ The company adds ‘four other Cornish Bakery locations are currently in development.’ Remy Cointreau is entering the luxury fragrance market with scents starting at €5,500 a bottle. HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: On the Beach has updated on full year trading saying that ‘Group Sales were 25% ahead of H2 FY19… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Christie &% Co has updated on the UK hotel market saying that ‘following the lifting of all COVID-19-related restrictions for the travel and lodging industry in March 2022, the UK hotel market has showed positive signs of recovery with people willing and eager to travel again.’ Christie says ‘the success of the COVID-19 vaccine in overcoming the Omicron variant has positively impacted the hotel market, despite the industry now facing an array of economic and operational challenges, including inflationary cost pressures, staff shortages and wage increases as well as supply chain disruptions…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. VAT free shopping. Now you see it, now you don’t. Blink and, though there panacea of tax free shopping had been offered momentarily, it was gone. Pragma Consulting reports ‘the UK Government’s recent U-turn on the re-introduction of VAT free shopping is an unwelcome blow for the travel retail sector given the current economic climate.’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. The travel industry has broadly welcomed the news that Rishi Sunak is to be PM. Travel Weekly quotes Mark Tanzer, chief executive of Abta, as saying ‘as Rishi Sunak takes up the job as the UK’s third prime minister this year, what businesses and consumers now need is stability, clarity, and confidence that we are set on a path to economic recovery…’ FINANCE & MARKETS: S&P Markit’s flash PMIs for the UK came in low. This is likely to increase concerns re a recession and perhaps encourage a less drastic increase in interest rates from the Bank of England than would otherwise have been the case. S&P’s flash composite PMI was 47.2 in October (49.1 in Sept). Services was 47.5 (Sept 50.0) and manufacturing was 45.6 (up from 44.2 last month). See also Pubs & Restaurants above…. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. HMRC data suggests some 37% fewer houses transacted in September than had done so in the same month last year. This is in large part due to the falling away of the spike caused by the Covid stamp duty holiday. The number is in line with that in August. Some mortgage deals that required smaller deposits are reported to have been pulled from the market. Bank of England deputy governor Sir Dave Ramsden has said the Bank is “engaging” with the Treasury over the next mini-Budget expected on 31 October. This represents a return to fiscal orthodoxy and provides further evidence that Trussonomics lasted barely longer than the lettuce that represented it. Sterling lower at $1.1297 and €1.1433. Oil up at $93.26. UK 10yr gilt yield down sharply by 34bps at 3.72% on market relief that orthodoxy was returning. Markets better for choice yesterday and London set to open little changed as at 6.30am. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. |
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