WTB, new PM, Carlsberg, Coke, Virgin Wines, VNET, Flutter, Meta etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

So, the clocks go back over the weekend and, if you’ve little else to look forward to in these challenging times, the prospect of an extra hour in bed – or an extra hour spent potting plants or playing with your model trainset, no euphemism intended – is at least something to pleasantly occupy the mind.

However, as Langton has to haul itself out of bed at such and unearthly hour and the puppy needs feeding, watering and toileting first thing when we’re WFH, it will still be touch and go whether it will be much lighter even after we’ve gratefully bagged the hour.

Indeed, it’s surely only a matter of time before we get dragged into a tree or down a hole by the overenthusiastic beast whose only question then will be ‘why did you do that, couldn’t you smell it?’

Anyway, enough of that. It’s not even Friday so, before we descend into some sort of pre-weekend torpor, let’s move on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Asda Income Tracker:

Asda reports that ‘average household disposable income fell by £35.44 a week in September – equivalent to £141 per month.’ That isn’t very helpful. It says that ‘soaring energy and housing costs, up 20% year-on-year in September stretch household budgets to the limit…’

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Customer behaviour.

Deloitte’s Q3 Consumer Confidence Index concludes that ‘the decline…that began in Q3 2021 worsened last quarter.’ It says that ‘reduced consumer spending power has pushed the Deloitte Consumer Confidence Index to a new record low at minus 20% in Q3 2022.’

Separately, the latest biannual FMCG Demand Signals report from IRI suggests that some consumers are changing their behaviours in a way last seen in the late 70s and early 80s. It points to people taking packed lunches to work, to staying in rather than going out and to buying cheaper products.

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UKH has commented on Lord Blunkett’s Learning & Skills report saying the recommendations ‘are very positive’ and include such suggestions as the introduction of an Apprenticeship and Learning Levy…

The Night Time Industries Association says that thousands of SME’s could be at risk if the government does not act regarding the rise to Alcohol Duty…

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Other news:

Unholy Trinity (recent IPO, delivery, online). With 2021 IPO Parsley Box suggesting it may delist and with its share down 99% from 200p to 2p, it might be worth another plug for our suggestion that not all companies have been winners when it comes to the end (or at least the end of the beginning) of the pandemic.

Lumina Intelligence suggests coffee shops, fast food, sandwich and bakery were among the strongest-performing channels between 2019-2022, reports the MCA.

The third HospoDemo will take place on Monday 14th November at 11am outside the House of Commons.

Australian wine exports are reported to have fallen by 11% in value to $2.01 billion and 1% in volume to 627 million litres in the year ended 30 September 2022. High tariffs on product imported into China are said to be partly to blame.

The Pub Governing Body for England & Wales has published its sixth annual audit report saying that its board is ‘pleased to see that the data in report once again shows there is a high level of compliance with the Tenanted and Lease codes governing signatory companies in England & Wales…’

The Pub Governing Body in Scotland reports its third annual audit and its chair, Paul Togneri, says the board is ‘pleased to see that in its third year since the formation of the Scottish Pub Governing Body figures are in line with previous years and show there remains a high level of compliance in Scotland…’

COMPANY NEWS:

C&C has reported H1 numbers saying that net revenue rose by 35.6% to €903m with adjusted EBITDA up 132.5% at €79.9m. The group is reporting operating profits up 254% and EPS of 9.6c, up 284% on last year. The group is not recommending a dividend. C&C says net debt to trailing 12mth adjusted EBITDA is 1.5x (compared with 3.4x reported in February). The company says it intends to pay a final dividend….

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SSP Group has agreed a new deal which will see it open a total of 18 F&B and convenience store outlets at Stockholm Arlanda and Gothenburg Landvetter Airports. The company says ‘the new outlets are a meticulously curated mix of renowned international brands, bespoke concepts tailored exclusively for the airport, and on-trend local names, designed to appeal to a new generation of traveller. The new units are scheduled to begin opening from summer 2023.’

Anheuser-Busch InBev has reported Q3 results saying that it has turned in the ‘best quarterly volume performance this year driven by accelerated digital transformation and continued consumer demand for our brand portfolio.’ The company says ‘we delivered broad-based volume growth of 3.7% this quarter resulting in an accelerated increase in revenue of 12.1%.’ AB InBev says ‘we continue to see strong consumer demand for our portfolio and a resilient beer category as we navigate the dynamic operating environment. As a result of our performance and continued momentum, we are raising the bottom-end of our FY22 EBITDA outlook…’

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Rosa’s Thai opened its first site in Dubai on Saturday.

Carlsberg has reported Q3 numbers to end-September saying that organic volumes rose by 3.6% in the quarter and by 6.9% in the year to date. Q1 volumes are up as follows, Western Europe +2.4%, Asia +9.9% and Central & Eastern Europe -2.5%. Carlsberg reports organic revenue growth of 11.6% in the quarter and 17.2% in the year to date…

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Wimpy UK has reported system sales up 14% in the year to end-August. The company, which has 67 UK restaurants, is owned by South African parent, Famous Brands.

Chipotle has reported Q3 results saying that sales were up 7.6% on the same quarter last year. The numbers were ahead of expectations. Chipotle’s prices are said to be up 13% on last year and up 20% on 2020. Operating margin has risen to 15.1% from 12.3% in the same quarter last year…

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

PPHE has updated on Q3 trading saying that room rate is up 30.5% on the quarter vs Q3 2019. The company says total revenue of £129.6 million was up 71.1% vs Q3 2021, and up 7.1% on Q3 2019 levels. The company says the ‘performance [was] driven by strong trading throughout the quarter, particularly the London and Croatian summer season, and maintaining focus on room rates…’

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Heathrow has cautioned that capacity caps may be needed over Christmas if passengers cannot be persuaded to fly outside peak times on some days. The company says ‘we are working with airlines to agree a highly targeted mechanism that, if needed, would align supply and demand on a small number of peak days in the lead-up to Christmas.’

OTHER LEISURE:

The Guardian reports a number of book publishers as saying that the price of books is likely to go up by between 10% and 20%.

Meta (Facebook & WhatsApp) has reported a drop in Q3 profits which nonetheless beat expectations. Revenues were down by 4% at $27.7bn and profits fell by a half. CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the company faced “near-term challenges”…’

Elon Musk has visited Twitter HQ carrying a sink. The offer to buy the company closes at the end of this week.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s ‘fiscal plan’, which was due on 31 October, will now be released on 17 November. Sterling has continued to recover.

The fiscal plan will now come well after the Bank of England’s MPC has made its move on UK interest rates. The MPC will opine on 3 November.

The current administration has ripped up one of the Truss government’s last promises when it failed to commit to retaining the triple lock.

Transport minister Baroness Vere has said BMW’s decision to move production of electric Minis from the UK to China was “very unfortunate”. She says she is “not concerned” about the future of electric car production in the UK.

Sterling up at $1.1615 and €1.1534 on political considerations. Oil up at $95.89. UK 10yr gilt yield down another 5bps at 3.58%. World markets mixed yesterday and London set to open down around 21pts as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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