Langton Capital – 2022-11-08 – Card spending, food costs, trading, CCH, Carlsberg, staycations etc.:
Card spending, food costs, trading, CCH, Carlsberg, staycations etc.:A DAY IN THE LIFE: Bit pressed for time. On to the news: LANGTON EMAIL: The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade. Prices for the Premium at time of writing are £345 for one subscription, £595 for multiple, both plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option HERE PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Inflation: The CGA Prestige Foodservice Price Index for September reveals that food prices are rising at 18.8% across the hospitality industry amid a storm of cost pressures. CGA reports ‘after reaching 15% for first time ever in August, the Index surged again during September. This means inflation has been in double digits in every month of 2022 since January…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Barclaycard on consumer spending: Barclaycard has reported that consumer spending rose 3.5% in October in monetary terms but shows that spending in the hospitality and leisure industries continue to struggle with some suggesting that Christmas spending could be an area where consumers cut back. Barclaycard, which sees around half of the transactions made on plastic in the UK, shows that spending on essential items, such as fuel and groceries, rose 5.7% year on year with fuel spend up 17.7% year on year (up 6.6pps on last month) with supermarket shopping up 4.6%. Most of these numbers, which do not attempt to measure spending by cash, are well below inflation…. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Consumers – the wealth effect: The Halifax (see Finance & Markets below) says that house prices fell by 0.1% in September and by a further 0.4% in October. In real terms, after the impact of inflation is accounted for, the falls were considerably larger. This and other data has led The Resolution Foundation to claim that around 200,000 households will be trapped in “negative equity” next year if house prices fall by 8pc as predicted… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. The CEBR forecasts that the gap in average incomes between poorer regions and better off areas in the UK will widen between the last general election in 2019 and 2028. The CEBR says the UK’s poorest regions will suffer disproportionately. It says ‘the northeast of England and the west midlands are expected to suffer an above-average decline, with output falling by 2 per cent, because of their reliance on the manufacturing sector.’ On a brighter note, millions of people on low incomes will begin to receive £324 into their bank accounts today as a second part of a £650 sum being paid out to people receiving certain benefits including Universal Credit. Trading in 2023: Analyst Peter Backman solicits views as to how trading may pan out next year. He says ‘horrific’, ‘catastrophic’ and’ a train wreck’ are ‘only three examples of what leading industry figures have told me they think 2023 is going to look like… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Other news: Benefits and taxes, Autumn Statement, expectation management. The size of the black hole to be addressed by Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt is being talked of in the £60bn area. This may be too high (interest costs on government debt have fallen & tax cuts have been reversed) but it would, arguably, be better to reduce the size of the real problem against negative expectations that have been recently been talked up rather than to do the opposite… Footfall. Springboard reports that the week ending 5 November saw footfall up 5.2% YoY but minus 9.8% compared to the same week in 2019. The largest drop in footfall occurred in high streets and shopping centres, with retail parks recording a marginal decrease… Energy costs. UKHospitality has called for a probe to determine that energy firms were not ‘deliberately profiteering’ from the current crisis… The CBI reports that the UK’s ‘outdated’ Business Rates system needs ‘urgent reform’ as the inflation-linked 10% Business Rates hike due in the spring risks ‘plunging many firms into a fight for survival.’ The CBI is also keen to see greater flexibility in the Apprenticeship Levy, a move which could have an enormous impact on a sector which already spends £4bn a year on training. Technology. Bizimply reports that ‘increasing numbers of hospitality operators are turning to technology to manage and motivate their staff.’ The company says ‘the hospitality sector has traditionally lagged behind others in investment in technology, but happily that seems to be changing as more operators look for new ways to meet the current crisis in staff recruitment and retention. We’ve certainly had a big uplift in enquiries in the last few months and converted more of them into customers.’ F&B in new developments: Looking at developments from the point of view of the landlord, Pragma Consulting says ‘food and beverage plays a vital role in mixed-use developments, providing potential to drive footfall, dwell, spend, positive perceptions and loyalty.’ It says ‘to ensure optimal execution, landlords must first determine what they hope the F&B offer will help them to achieve, and consider the audience and behaviour they can and wish to attract. Only then can the appropriate format, price-point, brand and amount of F&B be determined.’ COMPANY NEWS: Coca-Cola HBC AG has reported Q3 numbers showing that total organic net sales revenue rose by 7.4% with organic volumes, ex-Russian and Ukraine, up by 5.7%. The company says that organic revenue excluding Russia and Ukraine was up 19.6% in Q3, continuing H1’s strong momentum. CEO Zoran Bogdanovic says ‘we delivered a strong performance and continued share gains in Q3, thanks to our effective execution during this key trading period and our focus on the categories and channels where we can drive the best growth…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Carlsberg Marston’s Brewing Company is reported set to sell the Eagle Brewery, Bedford to Spanish brewer SA Damm (Damm) for an undisclosed sum. Eagle Brewery’s beers will remain part of CMBC’s portfolio. Time Out Group has announced that it has entered into a management agreement with QuadReal Property Group and Westbank to open a new Time Out Market at Oakridge Park in Vancouver. The company CEO says, Chris Ohlund, says ‘Oakridge Park is a visionary development in the beautiful city of Vancouver – we are delighted to partner with leading real estate companies QuadReal and Westbank and for Time Out Market to become an anchor of this project.’ Berry Bros & Rudd reported revenue up 7.2% to £220.2m for the year ended March 2022, with operating profits more than tripling to £14.9m. The UK’s oldest wine merchant ended the year with a pre-tax profit of £17m compared to a loss of £8m the year prior. Lounger’s new roadside dining brand, Brightside, was announced yesterday, with the company saying it is ‘taking a relatively big bet’ on the concept… £65k has been raised to save The Simpsons Tavern in central London, after the landlord locked the doors in a dispute over rent. The Cornhill-based pub, which has been serving customers for 265 years since 1757, closed in October. The manager is aiming to crowdfund £385k to re-open the venue. C&C Group has announced a distribution partnership with TRIP CBD, the UK’s no1 CBD drinks brand, across the UK. C&C says this is ‘an exciting next step in increasing our range of no and low partners. TRIP has revolutionised the low and no space as the leading CBD brand in Europe.’ HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: Savills research shows that average summer RevPAR for popular UK staycation markets was up 12.6% over pre-pandemic levels, with the staycation boom continuing in 2022… Turkey’s culture and tourism ministry predicts that the country is set to welcome a record 3 million visitors from the UK this year, with 2.8 million British arrivals in the first 9 months of the year already surpassing the 2.56 million UK travellers in pre-pandemic 2019… Gibraltar’s minister for business, tourism & the port Vijay Daryanani reports a strong summer season and continued interest from the UK family market after a visitor boost during the Covid-19 pandemic. Daryanani said ‘Prior to the pandemic, in the summer months we tended to lose some of the leisure market due to the variety of choice, but that hasn’t happened this year.’ THE UK GAMING INDUSTRY: This is a market that is now bigger than music & film and which, though there will be a pause after the super-normal growth seen during pandemic lockdowns, remains in growth. • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. The global majors, Tencent, Microsoft, Sony and others, dwarf any of the players in the UK market – but they are always on the lookout for content. Therein lies an opportunity. OTHER LEISURE: Meta is reportedly preparing to cut thousands of jobs after it had $80bn wiped off its market value last month. The company’s metaverse division, Reality Labs, made a $3.7bn loss over the past three months and said these losses would ‘grow significantly year over year’ in 2023. Late last month, Mark Zuckerberg said ‘In 2023, we’re going to focus our investments on a small number of high-priority growth areas’. Stranger Things: Puzzle Tales will be brought onto Netflix’s platform, marking the tech company’s expansion into video games. Users have to solve puzzles in this game to beat enemies like Demogorgons and other supernatural monsters. Liverpool FC’s owners, Fenway Sports Group (FSG), have said they are open to offers, raising the prospect of the club being sold. FSG said it ‘has frequently received expressions of interest from third parties seeking to become shareholders in Liverpool. FSG has said before that under the right terms and conditions we would consider new shareholders if it was in the best interests of Liverpool as a club.’ FINANCE & MARKETS: Property wobbles. The FT reports that some 175 property funds are seeking to sell assets worth more than £1bn on to the London market… The Halifax reports that house prices in the UK fell by 0.4% in October after their 0.1% September slip. The annual rate of growth fell from 9.8% in the year to September to 8.3% in October. Compared to the level of inflation, these are now declines in real terms… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Sterling higher at $1.1481 and €1.1478. Oil down at $97.51. UK 10yr gilt yield up 10bps at 3.64%. World markets mostly better yesterday but London set to open down around 29 points as at 6.30am. THE AQUIS MARKET: Broker VSA Capital is hosting an Aquis Day on Tues 29 November at the Royal College of Surgeons (38-43 Lincoln’s Inn Fields, London, WC1A 3PE). The event will feature around 20 companies, who will present to attendants and take part in a competition to win the ‘Britain’s Got Aquis’ title. Judges on the day will include Andy Brough (Schroders) and Judith Mackenzie of Downing LLP. Tickets and details are available HERE Attendance costs £20 – but Langton has a number of complimentary tickets and we’re open to suggestions as to who we should give them to…. Drop us a line. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. |
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