Langton Capital – 2022-11-14 – Furious pre-Budget lobbying, rates, inflation, trading, holiday demand etc.:
Furious pre-Budget lobbying, rates, inflation, trading, holiday demand etc.:A DAY IN THE LIFE: Watching terrestrial TV for the first time in a while (I’m a Celebrity, of course, Mr Hancock got stung by a scorpion he told us multiple times), it struck me that a) there are a lot of Christmas ads out there and that b) I’m heartily sick to death of them already. It’s not that I have anything against Christmas. It’s just that the feel-good ads, the feel-good with a twist ads, the feel-good ads with a touch of humour and all the other feel-good ads leave my head spinning. I’m not sure who’s advertising what and I’m not sure that I care but maybe nothing’s changed because, in the dim and distant past, I didn’t know if it was Panatella or Hamlet that did the moderately funny baldyman ads or whether it was John Smiths, Tetley or Boddington’s who were also occasionally able to raise a smile. Maybe it was all of them but, on reflection, maybe it’s the music that sticks. Anyway, that’s enough of that. We’ve got a week full of economic statistics to be getting on with. Wage data and unemployment tomorrow, inflation on Wednesday, the reparative Autumn Statement on Thursday and GfK’s confidence numbers on Friday, could it get any more uplifting? On to the news: LANGTON EMAIL: The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade. Prices for the Premium at time of writing are £345 for one subscription, £595 for multiple, both plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option HERE https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=87YUG2Z5W7PSN PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Business rates: UKHospitality analysis suggests that, under the current system, business rate bills could go up by more than a third, leaving firms facing collapse. If business rates increase in line with inflation and current relief is ended, the sector faces a £3.6bn bill next April, an increase of £900m on what the sector currently pays… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Budget lobbying. UKH has commented on business rates whilst the BII says pubs need to be provided with a financial ‘breathing space to be allowed to begin their own recovery, to the benefit of the entire nation.’ The BBPA says ‘the cost of doing business is out of control and as a result this is set to be the toughest Christmas on memory for UK pubs and brewers.’ It says ‘we need the beer duty freeze reinstated to alleviate at least some of the cost pressure on our pubs and brewers and to avoid undermining the crucial Alcohol Duty reform measures to be implemented in 2023…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Food price inflation: The MCA reports that food menu inflation fell back to less than +1% in the three months to September, according to Lumina Intelligence data. Much of this may have been as a result of ‘menu engineering’. The MCA said that once the sector is through this crisis, menus could be much leaner and more efficient… Labour issues: The CBI comments ahead the Autumn Statement, saying ‘a desperate lack of workers is inflating wages and stopping firms growing.’ Return to normality by geography: CGA has updated on its ‘Top Cities’ reports saying that ‘pubs, bars, and restaurants are recording positive sales in Britain’s major cities—but high inflation is making real-terms growth very difficult.’ It says ‘combined sales in Britain’s 10 most populous cities in the four weeks to 22 October 2022 were 4% higher than in the same period in 2019. Seven of the 10 cities recorded growth…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. The consumer: The chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, yesterday told the BBC that everyone will have to pay more tax under plans due to be announced on Thursday. With wages falling in real terms, this will reduce disposable income further. The BBC says it ‘has been told the chancellor is set to announce spending cuts of about £35bn and plans to raise £20bn in tax.’ Contract catering: CGA reports that ‘sales in the contract catering sector are still lagging pre-pandemic levels despite sharp growth over the last 12 months.’ it says Q3 sales were up 41% on last year but were 9% below 2019, even before the effect of inflation over the three year period are taken into account… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Energy costs: The BCC says ‘energy costs are the number one business concern, with 55% of firms saying it should be a top priority for the new Prime Minister.’ It says ‘while current Government support is welcome, there is a cliff-edge looming, and firms will struggle to see beyond it. They need certainty on what will happen in April so they can plan with increased confidence.’ Other news: The Telegraph reports that a shortage of eggs is likely to make its impact felt in the coming weeks. Avian flu has driven birds indoors and made some egg production uneconomic. COMPANY NEWS: Wahaca co-founder Thomasina Miers has said that the Mexican restaurant group is having to turn down customer bookings due to a shortage of staff… Filipino coffee company Jollibee reported a record $957m of revenue in Q3, up 49%. Its Vietnamese coffee chain Highlands Coffee opened 37 stores in the period to reach 562 outlets…. Sky reports that ‘Burger chain Byron [is] to be flipped to new owner two years after going bust.’ It says the owners have hired Interpath Advisory to ‘find new investors as the hospitality sector faces stiff economic headwinds…’ The Telegraph reports that Morrison’s new owners, Clayton, Dubilier & Rice, ‘has taken the unusual step of shielding the supermarket’s £6.5bn debt pile from soaring interest rates, as climbing borrowing costs put pressure on leveraged buyouts.’ The paper reports ‘typically companies would not seek to fix interest rates on acquisition loans, preferring instead to wait until investment banks have refinanced the debts.’ Cakebox – revenues up but profits down on rising costs – has reported H1 numbers to end-September saying that it has grown sales against strong comps… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: A poll for AllClear Travel Insurance has found that overseas holidays remain the one area of big-ticket spending that is most likely to survive widespread cost of living cuts this autumn, with 76% still intending to travel abroad this year. By age, the research showed that older generations were most likely to be uncompromising on their holiday plans for the year ahead, with 57% of over 65-year-olds continuing with their holiday plans… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. A rival poll by the Post Office has suggested that 42% of consumers already believe that the rising cost of living will impact their holiday plans. In reality, for most people, how could it not? In a rather early trip to market, Tui UK’s summer 2024 programme is on sale in what it claims to be its “biggest summer launch” yet. Travelodge Hotels has secured development funding to deliver a new hotel in Chiswick, with RTP Global Real Estate Investments purchasing the site and committing to fund the development site for £19.4m. The hotel will feature 113 rooms, and will be developed to Travelodge’s new budget luxe premium look and design. Heathrow reported that 5.9m passengers travelled through the airport in October, representing 84% of 2019 levels. The Times reports that ‘EasyHotel is aiming to more than double in size to 100 hotels by 2026, after a recovery in trading.’ It says that the 42-strong chain has completed the €145 million acquisition of eight hotels in the Benelux region that were franchised to the brand. The company says ‘our investors are very keen to expand the brand and will invest in deals.’ OTHER LEISURE: An international YouGov survey, conducted in the five largest Western European nations – Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Spain – as well as the US, has found that there is disapproval for hosting the tournament in Qatar. In terms of respondents finding Qatar hosting an international sporting event acceptable, only 14% of Germans found it acceptable, compared to Italy, where 46% found it acceptable. Elon Musk has said “bankruptcy isn’t out of the question” for Twitter, as the billionaire addressed employees for the first time. Twitter is reported to have sacked ‘thousands’ more contractors over the weekend. FINANCE & MARKETS: Big week for stats this week with the ONS updating on wages and employment levels (Tuesday) and inflation (Wednesday) and the chancellor presenting the government’s Autumn Statement on Thursday. On Friday, we will see GfK’s latest data on UK consumer confidence. Much comment on the official ONS news on Friday that the economy shrank by 0.2% in Q3. The provisional figure (this is the first of three stabs at the number) was better than feared… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. The BCC comments on the GDP figures saying that the numbers ‘solidify the picture that the economy is moving towards recession, if not already in one…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Reacting to trade data on Friday, the BCC says ‘the effects of higher inflation and reduced consumer spending globally on UK trade are growing clearer as both imports and exports of goods in September slowed.’ It says ‘UK goods exports fell in September by 4.7% (£1.6bn). The drop in exports to the EU was higher than to the rest of the world.’ Pointing the finger. Ex-chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng has told Talk TV that he told ex-PM Liz Truss that she was going too fast, that she could not sack him for doing what she said she wanted to do and that, if she did, she was toast… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Sterling up vs dollar at $1.1747 but down vs Euro at €1.14 over the weekend. Oil slightly lower at $95.59. UK 10yr gilt yield up 6bps at 3.35%. Markets mixed on Friday & London set to open up around 9pts as at 6.30am. THE AQUIS MARKET: Broker VSA Capital is hosting an Aquis Day on Tues 29 November at the Royal College of Surgeons (38-43 Lincoln’s Inn Fields, London, WC1A 3PE). The event will feature around 20 companies, who will present to attendants and take part in a competition to win the ‘Britain’s Got Aquis’ title. Judges on the day will include Andy Brough (Schroders) and Judith Mackenzie of Downing LLP. Tickets and details are available HERE https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-vsa-capital-aquis-showcase-event-tickets-430890363677?aff=odeimcmailchimp&mc_eid=cfe56acbe0&mc_cid=cd83de005f Attendance costs £20 – but Langton has a number of complimentary tickets and we’re open to suggestions as to who we should give them to…. Drop us a line. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. |
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