Langton Capital – 2022-11-15 – Confidence, wage data, footfall, JDW, G4M, Club Med & more:
Confidence, wage data, footfall, JDW, G4M, Club Med & more:A DAY IN THE LIFE: Dealing with an internet provider handover this morning, typing in new passwords and the like. Hence, have run out of time. On to the news: LANGTON EMAIL: The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade. Prices for the Premium at time of writing are £345 for one subscription, £595 for multiple, both plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option HERE https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=87YUG2Z5W7PSN PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Footfall: Springboard reports that footfall was up 6.5% YoY for the week ending 12 November, but was down 12.4% on pre-pandemic levels. Week on week, footfall increased by 2.1%. The results also indicate the change in consumer behaviour that is starting to become evident as a consequence of hybrid working, with the weekend increasing in significance for shopper activity… The MA reports that according to ONS data, food and drink service businesses are more likely to cut their weekly trade by at least two days in November than any other industry in the UK. 58% of food and drink businesses said that energy prices were the main concern for November, with 41% expecting their prices to increase in November 2022… The consumer: The ONS says that unemployment has fallen to 3.6%, the inactivity rate is up 20bps at 21.6%, that average pay including bonuses is up 6.0% and that pay excluding bonuses is up 5.7%… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Consumer spending. Deloitte UK chief economist Ian Stewart believes the current squeeze on consumers will ‘probably be much worse’ than following the 2008 financial crisis. Stewart said ‘The big concern has been short-term labour shortages, but the Bank of England wants to weaken the labour market. I would suggest we’ll see a turn in the labour market in the next few months. Unemployment is always low on the eve of a recession and tends to be high at the end of it.’ Consumer confidence: Accountant Deloitte updated on Q3 consumer confidence late last month and says ‘our data shows that consumer spending will continue to decline in Q4 2022.’ It adds ‘this does not bode well for consumer facing businesses ahead of the Christmas period, with retailers particularly exposed…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Business confidence: A study by Accenture and S&P Global has reported that UK business confidence has fallen to its lowest level in 13 years. The number reported fell by 10 percentage points in October. Accenture says ‘as we head towards what is likely to be a tough winter for the UK economy, business confidence has understandably been shaken…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Labour issues: See wage data above. Recruitment company Reed has suggested that the cost of living crisis it driving some workers back into the jobs market from retirement or inactivity for other reasons. Reed says calculations as to expected income levels have come down. It says ‘if you did a spreadsheet in 2020 doing some calculations about potentially retiring early, your numbers would look pretty different than they would now.’ CEO James Reed says ‘I can see that for a lot of people that might not have been a sustainable choice….’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Other news: SIBA has appointed Andy Slee – former Black Sheep Chairman – as CEO. Slee will begin on 1 January and commented ‘Our job is to help create an environment in which all can thrive in what are very challenging times, and ensure that local beer is a vibrant and growing part of the British beer landscape.’ The ONS reports that the average price of a pint is up some 9% compared to last year. It suggests that the costs to pubs and brewers were up 22%, suggesting that there has been some margin erosion. COMPANY NEWS: JD Wetherspoons has appointed CBRE and Savills to sell 7 of its pubs in addition to the 32 pubs that were put on the market in September. The new properties for sale, which comprise a mix of 5 freehold and 2 leasehold units, are located in England and Scotland and are being considered for sale either individually, in small packages or as a portfolio. Nightcap has appointed Lizi Hills as its group finance director. Hills was previously head of finance at Various Eateries – a role she’d been in since September 2021. The Sunday Times reports that McDonald’s looking for ‘drive-to’ locations as well as home delivery hubs for expansion… Asahi Super Dry 0.0% will be available from January 2023 across the UK as the Japanese drinks giant looks to expand into the no & low alcohol category. Oatly shares fell on the NYSE on the back of Q3 earnings. The shares were down by some 12.6 per cent, or 31 cents, to $2.14. the shares are down by around 74 per cent this year as sales growth has disappointed. Revenues at the company were up by 7 per cent in the quarter to $183 million. The market had been looking for around $212 million. Amazon is reported set to cut ‘thousands of office jobs’ as sales have slowed. Around 10,000 people could be let go. That amounts to only around 3% of the giant company’s office staff. Amazon says ‘as part of this year’s review, we’re of course taking into account the current macro-environment and considering opportunities to optimize costs.’ HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: Speaking at the Deloitte European Hotel Investment Conference last week, Radisson Hotel Group CEO Federico Gonzalez has said that the sector’s ‘worst challenge is the scarcity of labour’… A study by cruise.co.uk has found that the fastest cruise-going segment are the under-20’s, with 8% of all cruise passengers travelling in 2022 now either teenagers or younger. All other age groups under the age of 60 have also seen a rise in the proportion of cruise passengers, now representing around 44% of cruise goers… The owners of Club Med have denied reports that they are considering their financial options. Bloomberg reported that Fosun International had received expressions of interest from potential buyers of the leisure assets. OTHER LEISURE: Gear4Music has reported H1 numbers to end-September saying that revenues rose by 2% to £66.3m with EBITDA down 44% at £2.7%. the company is reporting a net loss of £1.1m against a net profit of the same amount in the prior year. The company says ‘as previously reported, gross margins reflect targeted stock reductions and challenging market conditions during July and August in particular.’ It says ‘EBITDA was in-line with the Board’s revised expectations at £2.7m. This was £2.1m behind FY22 H1 but reflects 35% growth on FY20 H1 (£2.0m), being the last full uninterrupted H1 trading period pre-Covid…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Merlin Entertainments has appointed Scott O’Neil as its new CEO. O’Neil was formerly the boss of the Philadelphia 76ers NBA team. In total, Merlin operates 140 attractions, 23 hotels and six holiday villages in 24 countries and across four continents. Elon Musk’s $56 billion pay package is being contested in the courts in the US. FINANCE & MARKETS: For employment data, see pubs & restaurants above. The ICAEW points out that ONS data suggests that the UK’s GDP is now running some 0.4% below its pre-Covid level in Q4 2019. It is the only G7 economy not to have exceeded pre-pandemic levels of output… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. The ICAEW makes the point that ‘a contracting economy makes the Autumn Statement much more challenging, because it means less tax revenue for the government, while aggressive spending cuts and tax rises would drive a longer and more damaging downturn.’ Rightmove has updated on the UK housing market saying that average asking prices fell by around £4,000 this month or 1.1%. The Times says this is ‘normal’ ahead of Christmas but Bloomberg takes a different view, saying that home owners are ‘slashing’ their prices. Month on month numbers can always be volatile. Japan’s economy contracted by an annualised 1.2% in Q3. Sterling mixed. Up vs dollar at $1.1776 and down slightly vs Euro at €1.1394. Oil lower at $92.73. UK 10yr gilt yield unchanged at 3.35%. World markets mixed yesterday and London set to open down around 10pts as at 6.30am. THE AQUIS MARKET: Broker VSA Capital is hosting an Aquis Day on Tues 29 November at the Royal College of Surgeons (38-43 Lincoln’s Inn Fields, London, WC1A 3PE). The event will feature around 20 companies, who will present to attendants and take part in a competition to win the ‘Britain’s Got Aquis’ title. Judges on the day will include Andy Brough (Schroders) and Judith Mackenzie of Downing LLP. Tickets and details are available HERE https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-vsa-capital-aquis-showcase-event-tickets-430890363677?aff=odeimcmailchimp&mc_eid=cfe56acbe0&mc_cid=cd83de005f Attendance costs £20 – but Langton has a number of complimentary tickets and we’re open to suggestions as to who we should give them to…. Drop us a line. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. |
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