Langton Capital – 2022-11-25 – Staffing, World Cup, footfall, margins, windfalls, GNK, Remy & other:
Staffing, World Cup, footfall, margins, windfalls, GNK, Remy & other:A DAY IN THE LIFE: Here’s something not to do if you’re working to a deadline and are in a bit of a rush: Notice that the dog’s chewed up a stick on the home office floor, see the Henry lying around within easy reach, vacuum up the twigs and then suck up the cords for the office blinds into the machine – not my fault, honest, they always did hang too low – and then spend two hours using bent coat hangers and bottle brushes trying to get them out before anyone notices what you’ve done. So, that’s clear. Anyway, it’s Black Friday. Good luck with the deals if you’re trying to bag one. Have a great weekend and, apropos of nothing at all, I was writing the word ‘queueing’ down yesterday and saw that it comprises five vowels on the trot surrounded by the consonants that have the sounds that you needed in the first place – Q-NG – without any vowels at all. Too much time on my hands? On to the news: LANGTON EMAIL: The Free Email is now written in short form. Extended versions of many stories are in the Premium Email. Reply to this email if you would like to upgrade. Prices for the Premium at time of writing are £345 for one subscription, £595 for multiple, both plus VAT. Or sign up for easy in, easy out monthly option HERE https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=87YUG2Z5W7PSN WINDFALLS v PERMANENT CHANGES: The situation: • Should markets ‘look through’ news, bad or good, if it’s deemed to be transient? • This is a big question and it’s important both when we are talking about bad news, e.g. a pandemic, or good news, such as a boost to revenues for some companies when workers were confined to their homes • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. PUBS & RESTAURANTS: Labour market: Hospitality Rising and KAM have found that 74% of hospitality businesses are expecting not to have enough front of house staff this Christmas, with three quarters also saying they are expecting a shortage of kitchen staff. Around 70% of operators are increasing staff wages in a bid to cover this labour shortfall, with alternative measures also including reducing covers or adapting service times… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. World Cup: David Lee of Insight & Solutions Ltd, has commented on hospitality trading over the first 4 days of the World Cup and says that it is beginning to look like home nations matches may be watched in the pub but many other matches are being watched at home. He says that ‘the sales impact is hugely variable by geography ( England v Scotland v Wales) and business focus – Wet led & Sports Led v Food led and therefore there will be winners and losers…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Elsewhere, Budweiser reportedly set to request a $47.4m discount from FIFA after the sale of beer in World Cup stadiums was banned by Qatar. The beer giant tweeted an image of a warehouse full of beer with the caption: winner of the World Cup takes it all. Consumer income & costs: Ofgem’s energy price cap will increase to £4,279 in January, with consumers temporarily protected from the increase by the government’s energy price guarantee which will keep the average annual bill to £2,500. This government cap will be in place until April next year, when the threshold is raised to £3,000. Footfall (not football): Lumina comments in the MCA that market participation dropped by 3% in October, despite it containing the half-term period. Frequency and spend were flat or in slight decline, and while restaurants enjoyed a slight boost in the share of occasions, this was largely prompted by promotional offers. Lumina reports a surge in value-led attitudes, with 78% of consumers very value-led, up 7% YoY… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Separately, the EY Item Club reports that there was a 3% drop in ‘market participation’ across the month of October. It says that frequency and spend were flat or in slight decline. It says that those operators seeing volume increases were often offering promotions. Transport disruption: Transport minister Mark Harper has said it will not be possible to grant pay increases that match inflation. Mr Harper says he “completely understands” why unions want such rises but he says that “economic circumstances” prevent it from happening. .. Separately, UKH CEO Kate Nicholls has written to the Transport Secretary Mark Harper outlining the scale of the damage facing the sector. She says ‘the fresh wave of rail strikes set to hit the country in December will cost the sector £1.5 billion on strike days, similar to the level of disruption caused by the Omicron Covid-19 variant last year…’ • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Other news: Research from Fentimans and CGA by NielsenIQ shows that more than one in three people would rather prioritise visits to pubs and restaurants than go on holidays, do home improvements or buy clothing. The research states that growing concern over the cost of living crisis has led to 40% of consumers planning to go out less frequently… City AM says ‘pub and restaurant bosses have accused suppliers of “deliberately profiteering” of the energy crisis, with huge hikes to other costs despite government support.’ It says ‘while the government unveiled a six month business support package in September, the country’s boozers and eateries are far from feeling out of the woods as the temperature drops and the nights draw in. However, operators have complained they are still being whacked with extortionate prices, as well as sky-high fees such as management costs, standing charges and security deposits.’ COMPANY NEWS: Around 188 staff at Greene King’s breweries have voted to strike from next month in a dispute over pay… Propel reports that Drake & Morgan, the London-based bar and restaurant group, is to assess its strategic options, which could result in a sale of the business next year… • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. Hawksmoor has opened a unit in Liverpool. Founder Will Beckett says ‘there’s no doubt that Liverpool has one of the most exciting restaurant scenes in the country at the moment. We’re really excited to open Hawksmoor here for all sorts of reasons.’ Rémy Cointreau reports H1 operating profit up 27.2% to €319.3m driven by strong organic demand for its premium cognac in China and the United States and cost controls. This outperformed analysts expectations of €306m, up 23.8% LfL. The company also remained confident of its ability to gain market share in the exceptional spirits market as it takes advantage of new consumption trends. Gusto Italian will open its 14th site on 1 December, located in Oxford, following a £1.8m investment in the site. The 10,000 sq ft restaurant will feature 150 covers on the ground floor and a 60-cover function room on the first floor. Per Propel, D&D has put 7 sites on the market including London’s 100 Wardour Street, Avenue, Cantina, Blueprint Café, Klosterhaus in Bristol, and Issho and East 59th in Leeds. Interpath Advisory was appointed to launch a sale process for the group earlier this year, rumoured to be worth around £100m. Innis & Gunn will open its second Glasgow Taproom today, offering quality pub food, ranging from small plates to bigger bar snacks, along with a varied drinks selection. HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL: A poll by OTA loveholidays has found that 46% of people are planning to go on holiday for shorter periods in response to cost of living concerns… The Advantage Travel Partnership suggests that the corporate travel industry is set to make 75 per cent of pre-Covid sales by the end of this year… Staycity Group is to bring its Wilde Aparthotels brand to the Overhoeks borough of Amsterdam-Noord in May 2024. OTHER LEISURE: Elon Musk has said that Twitter will provide a “general amnesty” to some suspended accounts from next week. FINANCE & MARKETS: Business groups and unions have urged the government to further delay plans to scrap a range of EU laws. Downing Street has said it wants to take “advantage of the benefits of Brexit” but little has thus far happened. Deputy governor of the Bank of England Sir Dave Ramsden has said that Britain’s economic credibility “has taken a hit” as a result of the government’s disastrous mini-Budget in September. He says it will take time to restore confidence in international money markets. UK car production rose in September by 7.4% on the same month a year ago reports the SMMT. The car body says ‘a return to growth for UK car production in October is welcome – though output is still down significantly on pre-COVID levels amid turbulent component supply.’The CBI’s latest industrial trends survey has shown that UK manufacturers reported a rise in output in the three months to November, the first increase since the three months to July 2022. It says, however, that production is expected to decline in the next quarter. Sterling down vs dollar at $1.2099 but up vs Euro at €1.1621. Oil higher at $85.42. UK 10yr gilt yield up 3bps at 3.04%. World markets mixed yesterday and London set to open down around 7pts as at 6.30am. THE AQUIS MARKET: Broker VSA Capital is hosting an Aquis Day on Tues 29 November at the Royal College of Surgeons (38-43 Lincoln’s Inn Fields, London, WC1A 3PE). The event will feature around 20 companies, who will present to attendants and take part in a competition to win the ‘Britain’s Got Aquis’ title. Judges on the day will include Andy Brough (Schroders) and Judith Mackenzie of Downing LLP. Tickets and details are available HERE https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-vsa-capital-aquis-showcase-event-tickets-430890363677?aff=odeimcmailchimp&mc_eid=cfe56acbe0&mc_cid=cd83de005f Attendance costs £20 – but Langton has a number of complimentary tickets and we’re open to suggestions as to who we should give them to…. Drop us a line. RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB: • See premium. Reply for sample or to upgrade. Single £345, multiple £595. Limited time offer: PayPal monthly £25 + VAT. Easy in, easy out. |
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